MY PICK IS ELN

[spikefader]

I don't hear any mumbling about earnings release on 1/31 before open. Any quibbles about holding so much over earnings?

Shady, great question! Make sure you hedge appropriately with puts.

Consider out of money March 7.50 strike puts (.ELNOU) currently 0.25x0.30.
Buy 1 put (??) for every 100 shares and be prepared to just eat the cost of em if it rallies from earnings. The insurance is worth it on any large position cuz if it plunges on bad news you'll be makin' money to cover the loss on the shares. And if it rallies then the cost of the puts have only cost you a small amount of your equity, which will be recovered if the stock rallies 3% from the news. Anything on top of that is creme.

Said another way, if you buy 10 puts for 1000 shares you hold, the puts cost you $300. If it tanks, you're covered, and the stock only needs to run +3% to pay for the cost of the puts that hedged you in times of uncertainty, i.e. earnings.

Now, I'm assuming 1 put for every 100 shares is gonna do it, but others may have thoughts on whether it will with out of money puts.

Opinions??

I decided to hold my long and will hedge myself and see what the market hands me.

[kingofthehill]

Before you read the excerpt, remember that Davy's is Elan's stockbroker. Davy's Vice Chairman of it's board is K Mc; and he serves as Chairman of Board of Elan.

The excerpt from Beechlawn's post of Davy's flash ( thanks Beechlawn) is

"The emergence
of its AD pipeline will provide the key catalyst for the shares, one that investors
are only beginning to evaluate and that carries significant potential upside. "

Jack Gorman the analyst who wrote that is not given to going out on a limb.

Once the US tree stumps (ANALysts) begin to understand what is being said ( possibly the Wyeth analysts will tell them), Elan should see some serious commentary changes.

[noshadyldy]

Spike

Thanks so much for that great advice. I would if I could. I've never set my account up to do options; never felt comfortable with them. That's changing and I will be modifying my trading account.

For now, I pulled out. I DO NOT trust earnings. I fear that much moolah has gone into the tysabri battle and may show a crummy impact on earnings. Just my feelings, that and the fact that the last two earnings weren't so hot either.

I'll be back in real soon though.

[spikefader]

Sure noshady, any time.

I must commend your discipline favoring on the side of safety. You are a very clever lady! The temptation to benefit from a pop just isn't worth the risk on earnings I think - unless hedged well. Good luck with that next entry!

[kingofthehill]

ELN beats by .05 Rev + 140m vs 127m

Elan trims losses, confident of Tysabri comeback
Tue Jan 31, 2006 04:52 AM ET

(Adds share price, analyst comment, details, background)
By Paul Hoskins

DUBLIN, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Elan (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a smaller-than-expected fourth-quarter loss on Tuesday, saying it was well placed for a return to profitability and confident its suspended multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri would make a comeback.

"Elan is optimistic about the return of Tysabri," it said in a statement ahead of a March 7 meeting of U.S. regulators to determine the fate of a drug that is seen as key to the Ireland-based company's future after a brush with bankruptcy in 2002.

Elan's (ELN.L: Quote, Profile, Research) net loss was $0.14 per share in the three months to the end of December, almost half the $0.27 per share loss seen in the same period of 2004 and better than the $0.185 median forecast of 10 analysts polled by Reuters.

That brought its full-year loss to $0.93 per share versus analyst forecasts of $0.985 a share and a $1.01 loss in 2004.

Revenues for the fourth quarter were $140.4 million compared to expectations of $127 million and $123.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2004. Full year sales rose to $490.3 million from the $481.7 million achieved in 2004.

"The progress we have made in improving our operating leverage will accelerate our return to profitability," Elan Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke said. The company was forced to slash costs following Tysabri's withdrawal.

The outcome of the March 7 Food and Drug Administration meeting to weigh up the MS treatment's risks and benefits is the main concern for investors, analysts say, but in the meanwhile Tuesday's results showed the company to be in good shape.

"Elan this morning reported a strong set of results for the ongoing business ... driven by a combination of stronger revenue coupled with better-than-forecast cost control," said Ian Hunter, analyst at Goodbody stockbrokers.


WELL-POSITIONED

Tysabri, co-developed with U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , was withdrawn last February after a patient died from the rare brain and spinal-chord infection progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).

Two further cases later emerged, one of which was fatal.

Nevertheless, Elan (ELN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it was well-positioned for a Tysabri relaunch and that it planned to spend $150 million to $170 million in 2006 on developing and marketing the drug.

Elan's planned investment assumes a potential re-marketing in the United States in the second quarter of 2006 and a possible European launch in the second half of this year.

Elan shares, which slid from over 20 euros to 2.30 euros in the wake of Tysabri's suspension, were up 2.1 percent at 12.15 euros in Dublin by 0925 GMT versus a flat Irish market .

The stock was 3.0 percent stronger at 12.21 euros in London.

Adjusted to exclude costs related to getting Tysabri back on the market, Elan said its loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA loss) was $216.9 million in the year to the end of December.

The company had set itself a goal of an adjusted EBITDA loss of $240 million to $260 million while analysts had expected an adjusted core loss of $245 million.

Elan said it expected negative 2006 EBITDA, excluding Tysabri related revenues, of $150 million to $175 million. As for revenues next year, Elan forecast that even without Tysabri they would exceed $500 million versus $490.3 million in 2005.

[skiracer]

I'm holding 2000 shares from $13.85 which is my fourth trade in this stock over the last 6/7 weeks. Up close to 6 points with those four trades and was real close to taking the small change and running on this last position. Decided to take a chance on love and stuck with the position through the earnings report. Looks good from what they reported but still have to wait and see what the reaction is in the pre-market an at the open.
This report was decidedly better that what was kind of expected so hopefully it will bolster some positive support over an above the expectations of the return of Tysarbi. It's a move in the right direction.
Starting to move in the pre-market already. Just might see a nice momentum spike on this eps report today.

[noshadyldy]

I'm holding 2000 shares from $13.85 which is my fourth trade in this stock over the last 6/7 weeks. Up close to 6 points with those four trades and was real close to taking the small change and running on this last position. Decided to take a chance on love and stuck with the position through the earnings report. Looks good from what they reported but still have to wait and see what the reaction is in the pre-market an at the open.
This report was decidedly better that what was kind of expected so hopefully it will bolster some positive support over an above the expectations of the return of Tysarbi. It's a move in the right direction.
Starting to move in the pre-market already. Just might see a nice momentum spike on this eps report today.

Yes, and as soon as reaction is determined, I'm squeezing back in. I already feel all squiggly and eager. Picture that comes to mind is the body movements and sweet expressions of anticipation on my four boys (Gabby, Black Jack, Oliver, and Casper...yes, they're CATS) as I'm trying to squeeze between them to set down their breakfast. Gosh, I love them!
ok, enough "sharing". GAME ON!

[skiracer]

Yes, and as soon as reaction is determined, I'm squeezing back in. I already feel all squiggly and eager. Picture that comes to mind is the body movements and sweet expressions of anticipation on my four boys (Gabby, Black Jack, Oliver, and Casper...yes, they're CATS) as I'm trying to squeeze between them to set down their breakfast. Gosh, I love them!
ok, enough "sharing". GAME ON!

I'm a big cat person myself and can appreciate your feelings. About 6 months ago we lost our treasure Nissa. Things around here haven't been the same since we lost her and my wife isn't near being ready to bring another one in yet. She's just becoming able to talk about it without crying. We lean towards the long haired ones. Nissa was what they call a Maine Coon. Tri-colored and very big cat.
Let's hope this eps report propels ELN higher today.

[spikefader]

Nice to see that ELN price movement dudes.

Ski, you got some closet ELN tradin' goin' on dude. 6 points! Shoo, I wish I could be watchin' ya do it too. Ah well, I guess I'll just sit on my lazy butt now and hold this thing and see if I can catch you and Webs over the weeks ahead

And I like cats too. Who couldn't like this?!?

[kingofthehill]

4.5 million people have ALZHEIMER'S disease

http://www.tixx.com/essner.wma

this is just a short clip of the interview this morning on CNBC, NICE work Joe K on CNBC getting Esssner to talk about ALZ and mention THIER PARTNER ...ELAN


this stock can be $50.00 year end if Elan & WYeth are on track like they say they are ....'

listen to the audio clip

[noshadyldy]

cat

Oh Spike! That is just too darn cute!!!!

SKI, if you haven't seen it already, I replied to you privately.

[noshadyldy]

Eln

CLOSED NEAR HOD.



SHAZZAMM!!!! OH GLORIOUS DAY!!!!
(AS ROBIN WILLIAMS WOULD SAY)

[skiracer]

Nice to see that ELN price movement dudes.

Ski, you got some closet ELN tradin' goin' on dude. 6 points! Shoo, I wish I could be watchin' ya do it too. Ah well, I guess I'll just sit on my lazy butt now and hold this thing and see if I can catch you and Webs over the weeks ahead

And I like cats too. Who couldn't like this?!?

Cute picture Spike. I'm a big cat and dog lover. Something about the cats that I like with their independence and aloofness. I've been in an out of ELN about 4 trades now with this latest one from $13.85. Somewhere around 6 or more points total gain over the 4 trades especially with todays action. I almost bailed yesterday in front of the eps report but set a tighter stop late yesterday and figured I'd let it ride. Actually thought they were reporting after the close today an was surprised when I caught the report numbers on Briefing.com early this morning. Almost bought more this morning when it was still around $14.70/$14.80 but let it go. Have to be happy with todays action. Don't really know where I'm going with this position. I hate to give it back an I was thinking today at first was alot of momo guys but it did hold almost at the HOD on very high volume so maybe not an it will hold tomorrow. I'm thinking maybe to let it go and ride it out from now until the decision on Tysarbi comes down. It's not like I haven't taken a decent amount of gain out of it already but I will be placing a stop around $15.25/15.50 an honoring it. Can always re-enter at some point. $16 to $20 is the same to me as $20 to $24 as long as it moving up. You're back in nice shape with it again from that $12.62 entry. Just great an I love it.

[Websman]

CLOSED NEAR HOD.



SHAZZAMM!!!! OH GLORIOUS DAY!!!!
(AS ROBIN WILLIAMS WOULD SAY)

It does feel good doesn't it?

I suppose I might as well let out some emotion also...

YEEEEHHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

[kingofthehill]

spike what does your chart say ?