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Jdsud
going by my gut here...I get the impression that the stock will see single digits again. HOrrific numbers and mgmt.
going by my gut here...I get the impression that the stock will see single digits again. HOrrific numbers and mgmt.
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sorry about that...I thought I was in the pick of the day thread.Originally posted by Tatnic View PostComment
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I've got a bad feeling about ELN down almost 3% today on high volume. Seems somebody might have advance warning.
------------billyjoeComment
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Nothing to worry about Billyjoe. It was merely panic selling because of a press release. This particular story was old news and an exact version of it had already been released a couple months ago. I suspect it was planned by some of the big boys, so they could cover their short positions or possibly get some cheap shares.Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
I'm not a bit worried. The sell off was not that bad.
Here's the bogus article...
Patients, doctors still leery of Biogen's MS drug
Mon Oct 23, 2006 2:48 PM ET
By Toni Clarke
BOSTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Doctors are proving more leery than many had expected about prescribing the multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, which was relaunched in July after being suspended because of safety concerns.
Over the past month or so, analysts have drawn down their 2006 sales forecasts as it becomes clear that doctors wary of the risk of the rare but potentially fatal brain disease PML are reserving the drug as a treatment of last resort.
The drug, which is made by Biogen Idec Inc. <BIIB.O> and Irish partner Elan Corp. Plc <ELN.I> <ELN.N>, had been expected by some analysts to generate sales this year of more than $100 million, but those figures have dropped dramatically.
Ian Hunter, an analyst at Goodbody stockbrokers in Dublin, said on Monday that he has cut his full-year Tysabri forecast to $25.7 million from $78 million, in part because of continuing safety concerns and the complexity of reimbursement systems in Europe.
A survey of 63 neurologists conducted by Reuters Primary Research indicates that in 2006 Tysabri will be used in less than 1 percent of multiple sclerosis patients -- translating into revenue of under $30 million.
Since July, only 47 of more than 8,500 patients treated by the physicians surveyed by Reuters had used Tysabri, even though more than 700 patients had discussed using it, according to the report.
And more than 75 percent of the patients who had used Tysabri prior to its 2005 suspension have decided not to use it since its reintroduction, the survey showed.
In taking the rare decision to allow a withdrawn drug back onto the market, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration was partially influenced by calls from patients who said they were willing to take the risk of contracting progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, because of the potential benefits of the drug.
"It turns out in real life that a lot of patients and doctors are taking a wait-and-see attitude," said Ben Weintraub, author of the Reuters survey.
About 250,000 to 350,000 Americans have been diagnosed with MS, a degenerative disease of the nervous system that can lead to muscle weakness, blurred vision and, ultimately, disability. Many benefit only partially from current treatments, which include Biogen's drug Avonex.
Tysabri's ultimate sales potential will depend, to an acute degree, on whether there are any more cases of PML, analysts say. Most of the respondents to the Reuters survey said they would stop using Tysabri altogether if two new PML-related deaths were associated with Tysabri.
"Most people say its going to be a $1 billion drug eventually," said Steve Brozak, an analyst at WBB Securities. "But more time is needed. Time buys you information." (Additional reporting by Paul Hoskins in Dublin)Comment
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Webs,
Good point. I didn't find that article. Didn't look in the right place. How can we get the clout to plant articles when they can be used to our advantage? Let's see some more VTP press releases. Maybe they'll try to post some more rotten old news tomorrow. That might be a big tip off.
------------billyjoeComment
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I've seen this pattern over and over with ELN and many other stocks. It gets to be very obvious. I don't know how they get away with it, but they do.Originally posted by billyjoe View PostComment
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Yesterday I tightened my stop on ELN from 1R to .50R. Not impressed hard stop in at 15.05. If not stopped tomorrow I may use a discretionary call on it and close the position out.Comment
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Actually, Webs, it's pretty simple. The pattern you see is caused not only by planted stories, but also leaks. While I'm sure there are stories planted, it's far easier to imagine one leaking to the trading floor without much of a conspiracy needed for coverup. So, using Occam's razor, we can assume that's all it is most of the time.Originally posted by Websman View Post
This phenomenon is a good reason for novices to stay out of the "news play" trades. Unless you're one of those "in the know" and by definition participating in illegal activity, you are at a severe disadvantage to those who are. By sticking with longer-term horizons, you should be able to avoid this disadvantage.
Still, it always sucks to see criminals getting away with your money.Comment
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Yo, you see whats I mean my Vulcans??? Y'all see the games them Wall Street boyz be tryin' to play with us? They think we be stupid, but we ain't no fools. Who they think we is?
AP
Biogen, Elan Drug Effective in Crohn's
Tuesday October 24, 9:12 am ET Biogen Idec and Elan Present Data Showing Effectiveness of Tysabri in Crohn's Disease
NEW YORK (AP) -- Biogen Idec and Elan Corp. said Tuesday data from a long term study of their multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri maintained remission rates in Crohn's disease patients treated over a two-year period.
The study involved 90 patients and showed 86 percent were still in remission after two years of continuous treatment. Also, a subpopulation of 22 patients who had previously taken infliximab therapy showed an 82 percent remission rate after two years.
Crohn's disease causes inflammation of the digestive tract and the welling causes pain and can result in frequent diarrhea. The results from Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen and Ireland-based Elan come on the heels of a competitor's study, showing its rheumatoid arthritis drug was effective in maintaining remission rates in Crohn's patients.
On Monday, Abbott Park, Ill.-based Abbott Laboratories said Humira met its endpoints in a late stage clinical trial by showing a decrease in symptoms and factors associated with Crohn's. The study involved 325 patients who had previously used infliximab treatments.
Both companies are presenting the data at the American College of Gastroenterology's annual meeting in Las Vegas and the United European Gastroenterology Week in Berlin.
American depositary shares of Elan fell 23 cents to $15.43 in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange, after closing Monday at $15.43.Comment
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All set for some exciting time with ELN. Let's see what they have to say about patient waiting in queue to get Tysabri...Comment
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I exited at $15.20 for a .55 loss. Never fails right before earnings.Originally posted by spikefader View PostTHE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR
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Out of ELN with 3% loss. Risk level too high for me now for short term.Comment
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Yep ladies and gents, risk too great on the long side now.
I calculate on TA-basis that short intraday S1 15.29 with tight stop is a wonderful r/r trade. Details at http://www.technicaltrades.net/2006/10/25/eln-6/
Weekly chart below, more at my site:
Sorry bulls; it is what it is.
Best of luck all.Comment
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The price action today was pure manipulation... ELN closed up .17 at 15.68.
I rode it out. Still in at 15.23...Comment
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