MY PICK IS ELN

[kingofthehill]

thanks its looking good ..even i am amazed

[spikefader]

thanks its looking good ..even i am amazed

Yep, amazing.

[spikefader]

In the 2 lads and lasses!

Impressive 1,2,3 recently.

[kingofthehill]

spike so where do you see it going from here ?

[IIC]

spike so where do you see it going from here ?

Been noticing it myself...And every time I see it show up on one of my scans...I think of you (seriously)...Nice to see you are still among the living King

[kingofthehill]

it was not easy owning and trading this stock ..or options..now Golman Sachs is behind ELN ...maybe they can keep it going strong

[Websman]

it was not easy owning and trading this stock ..or options..now Golman Sachs is behind ELN ...maybe they can keep it going strong

Congrats! It took patience, but it paid off. I'm kicking myself as we speak. lol

[kingofthehill]

June 23, 2008
ACTION
Buy
Elan Corporation (ADR) (ELN)
Return Potential: 37%
The future redefined; adding to Conviction Buy List
Source of opportunity
Elan announced the headlines of the phase II Alzheimer’s Disease study
that showed a statistically significant result in APOE4 negative patients.
Elan and partner Wyeth have what is likely to be an approvable drug for
this patient group in due course. Further, as Bapineuzumab is effective in
treating Alzheimer’s Disease, it could also be effective in pre-Alzheimer’s
Disease conditions, providing an entry into the prophylactic market. In that
scenario, our forecasts would be far too conservative. We view the phase II
data announcement as an inflection point, which could catalyse other
strategic initiatives for the group. We add Elan to our Conviction Buy List.
Growth
Returns *
Multiple
Volatility Volatility
Multiple
Returns *
Growth
Investment Profile: Elan Corporation (ADR)
Low High
Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th
* Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the
investment profile measures please refer to
the disclosure section of this document.
ELN
Europe Biotechnology Peer Group Average
Catalyst
We view the presentation of the Bapineuzumab phase II data at the ICAD
Meeting on July 29 as the most significant near-term catalyst for the stock.
However, we continue to believe that the possibility of a sub-part E filing
(potentially on interim phase III data) cannot be ruled out. Also, we view
the announcement of the Bapineuzumab data as the trigger for
announcing that Elan will build a manufacturing facility for Bapineuzumab,
and for a potential sale of the EDT business and a potential re-financing of
the group, which could significantly reduce its interest costs.
Valuation
We are increasing our 6-month risk-adjusted DCF-based target price from
US$34.20 to US$45, based on increased sales forecasts for Bapineuzumab
and on using a lower discount rate for lower risk parts of the business
such as Tysabri, other marketed products and EDT. Our forecasts on
Bapineuzumab assume 1 mn patients treated at peak (vs. more than 8 mn
Rx for Alzheimer’s Disease drugs in the US alone, so far in 200.
Key risks
Risks to our view and target price include any PML cases with Tysabri and
disappointing details of the Bapineuzumab data at ICAD.
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Pan-Europe Buy List
Pan-Europe Conviction Buy List
Coverage View: Neutral
Ireland:
Biotechnology
Key data Current
Price ($) 32.95
6 month price target ($) 45.00
Upside/(downside) (%) 37
Market cap ($ mn) 15,430.5
Enterprise value ($ mn) 16,780.8
12/07 12/08E 12/09E 12/10E
Revenue ($ mn) New 759.4 1,195.8 1,792.7 2,577.6
Revenue revision (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
EBIT ($ mn) New (265.3) (12.7) 295.6 561.7
EBIT revision (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
EPS ($) New (0.86) (0.31) 0.35 0.95
EPS ($) Old (0.86) (0.31) 0.35 0.94
EV/EBITDA (X) NM 145.6 40.6 22.8
P/E (X) NM NM 93.5 34.8
Dividend yield (%) -- -- -- --
FCF yield (%) (3.4) (2.0) (0.2) 1.5
CROCI (%) -- 5.0 19.6 31.4
Price performance chart
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Apr-08
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
Elan Corporation (ADR) (L) FTSE World Europe (USD) (R)
Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month
Absolute 59.9 53.3 55.9
Rel. to FTSE World Europe (USD) 58.4 71.1 79.2
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 6/20/2008 close.
Stephen McGarry Ph.D.
+44(20)7774-1134 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International
Linden Townson
+44(20)7552-5783 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International
Mick Readey
+44(20)7552-3714 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should
be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect
the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers in
the US can receive independent, third-party research on companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is
available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.independentresearch.gs.com or call 1-866-727-7000. For Reg AC
certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important
disclosures go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts
employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE
analyst exam.

[kingofthehill]

Spike $45 By The First Week Of August .........what Are Your Thought On This

[mrmarket]

Thanks Shady , I am a buyer here, the market does not understand that this drug will be back in short time 3-6 months ..great buy here below $4.00

more upside than SIRI or any other cheap stock i know of

I have no puts at these prices..when the stock crosses $5.00 i will buy puts

for insuurance

Give this guy some props for his call over 3 years ago. While I always say "don't fall in love with a stock", the King has shown that his devotion to ELN has made him some big buckaroos. Here's one stock that has done very well over the last 2 years.

[spikefader]

Spike $45 By The First Week Of August .........what Are Your Thought On This

Very doable King.

[jiesen]

Congrats! It took patience, but it paid off. I'm kicking myself as we speak. lol

well, you can stop kicking yourself now...

[billyjoe]

It got me twice but not this time. What a heartbreaker!

-------------billy

[spikefader]

What a heartbreaker!
-------------billy

Awww man. ELN does it again.....

The fuzzy:

[Websman]

well, you can stop kicking yourself now...

I feel much better...But I hope King is ok.