BIDU ==> The South Beach Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    BIDU ==> The South Beach Winner

    Unfortunately I never made it down to South Beach because my plane decided not to take off on time. So my purchase was also delayed...but here it is:

    Alright…help me understand this. There are 300,000,000 people in the United States. There are 1,300,000,000 people in China. Google is basically not allowed in China. You think Chinese people like to use search engines? You’re darn skippy they do. So basically they use Baidu instead of Google. Now then…a lot of people in China still don’t own a computer. You want growth???…hmmm…do the math

    Today I bought BIDU at 107.55. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 123.87. Here’s why I like BIDU:

    One good place is the chart:



    That’s right. This stock is going up. Why? Because people aren’t stupid, that’s why. BIDU once again hit an all time high after reporting pornographically strong earnings. It’s market cap is now almost $40 billion dollars. This isn’t a fly by night internet company. By the way, they don’t have any debt on their balance sheet so don’t worry at all about their financial health.

    Baidu, Inc. provides Chinese and Japanese language Internet search services. Its search services enable users to find relevant information online, including Web pages, news, images, multimedia files, and blogs through the links provided on its Websites. The company also offers online community-based products and entertainment platforms; an instant messaging service; and a consumer-oriented e-commerce platform. In addition, it designs and delivers online marketing services and auction-based P4P services that enable its customers to reach users who search for information related to their products or services. The company serves online marketing customers consisting of small and medium sized enterprises, large domestic corporations, and Chinese divisions or subsidiaries of multinational corporations primarily operating in the medical, machinery, education, franchising, electronic products, e-commerce, ticketing, tourism, information technology, consumer products, real estate, entertainment, and financial services industries. Basically, it’s the Chinese knockoff of Google. So you think more Chinese people are going to be using computers? Then BIDU is a complete no brainer.

    Baidu already has over 70% of the Chinese search market – which is the biggest in the world. A lot of their gains in market share came from Google. Bye bye Google. By the way, this overall market is growing and growing and Baidu has yet to implement a lot of the ad gadgets that make up a great deal of Google’s revenue streams. With all the cash that’s being generated by the growing earnings, they will be pumping up the R&D to come up with new junk to make more monies. It’s other competitors keep shrinking their market share and everyone knows these trends don’t reverse. Effectively BIDU is now the winner and to the winner goes the spoils.

    So what kind of money do they make?

    Last week Baidu reported total revenues in the third quarter of 2010 of $337.2 million, a 76.4% increase from the corresponding period in 2009.

    Net income in the third quarter of 2010 was $156.4 million, a 112.4% increase from the corresponding period in 2009.

    Baidu had about 272,000 active online marketing customers in the third quarter of 2010, representing a 25.9% increase from the corresponding period in 2009 and a 7.1% increase from the previous quarter.

    As of September 30, 2010, the Company had cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.037 billion.

    Baidu currently expects to generate total revenues in an amount ranging $354.2 million to $364.7 million for the fourth quarter of 2010, representing an 88% to 93.5% year-over-year increase. This forecast reflects Baidu's current and preliminary view, which is subject to change.

    Look…I can go ahead and put together a valuation analysis based on where I see earnings going and what it’s trading at now. I’m not going to lie to you. This stock is ridiculously expensive trailing P/E of 89. Picture this scenario:



    CURLY: Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk!

    MOE: Oh, darling! Leave your husband and fly away with us.

    CURLY: You know you love us, not that pickle-puss husband of yours! Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk!

    The angry husband walks up to Curly and Moe.

    HUSBAND: What's goin' on here?!

    CURLY: Scram, buddy! You're interferin' with romance!

    MOE: Go a...

    Curly and Moe do a double take when they realize that the husband is the same man they had a fight with in the street.

    CURLY AND MOE: NYAAA-AAA-AAAAH!

    The husband then also recognizes Moe and Curly.

    HUSBAND: (pulling out his gun) Why, you!

    CURLY AND MOE: Nyaaa-aaaa-aaah!

    Actually, the boss is no stooge and here what he has to say:

    "Strong execution on our initiatives to expand our customer base and enhance customer service drove another quarter of strong results," said Robin Li, chairman and chief executive officer of Baidu. "By focusing on continuously improving our online marketing system and customer engagement while building awareness of search engine marketing, we are successfully enhancing Baidu's position as a key enabler of China's Internet industry."

    Mr. Li continued, "On the user experience front, during the quarter we announced several exciting developments including the Baidu Open Application Platform, the first platform integrating web search with an applications library. Such pioneering initiatives that focus on Internet user needs are at the center of our R&D investment."

    Jennifer Li, Baidu's chief financial officer, commented, "We are pleased to have delivered record margins in the third quarter, even as we actively invested in sales and marketing, R&D and network equipment. Looking forward, we will continue to invest aggressively to support Baidu's long-term growth."

    Sure it’s expensive. Just like Thomas Sweet Ice Cream in Princeton…but it’s worth it. Actually, the forward P/E based on their sandbagged expectations isn’t too bad at all at only 46. Just like when I bought AAPL stock…sometimes you just have to take a leap of faith and go with the mo. (Or Moe..nyaaa-aaa-aaah)

    So…tell me if you like this write up.

    I am HUGE!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 11-06-2010, 09:50 AM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  • #2
    I was 99% sure BIDU was going to be the pick.

    Comment

    • mjrichmo
      Member
      • Dec 2007
      • 87

      #3
      "pornographically high earnings"

      Love it.

      Comment

      • Renegade
        Junior Member
        • Sep 2009
        • 26

        #4
        Bidu

        I think Curly would say "Ceointently Not!"

        Great post Mr. Market !

        btw - you forgot to add in the fineprint at the bottom of the chart. "made in china" lol - ok I had to toss that in.

        Thanks!

        This stock looks good. I'm still learning charts, but wish that I had some winchester charts to look at. I'm with Questrade and they don't offer the 5 minute charts.

        Comment

        • jiesen
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2003
          • 5319

          #5
          great pick!

          I'm in at 108. See ya at 124!

          Comment

          • steelman
            Senior Member
            • Jun 2008
            • 648

            #6
            Nice pick. Investools has a project price of $2600. It look like I am picking up some BIDU Jan $125 calls Thanks for the pick $$$MM$$$
            Best,
            Steel
            It's time to Grab the Bull by the Horns!

            Comment

            • hags
              Senior Member
              • Jan 2008
              • 206

              #7
              In at $95.00

              hags

              Comment

              • wooish
                Senior Member
                • Dec 2008
                • 499

                #8
                Originally posted by steelman View Post
                Nice pick. Investools has a project price of $2600. It look like I am picking up some BIDU Jan $125 calls Thanks for the pick $$$MM$$$
                I love it when you toss in that Investools number, this company must do some extraordinary thing to reach that price level.

                Comment

                • steelman
                  Senior Member
                  • Jun 2008
                  • 648

                  #9
                  Originally posted by wooish View Post
                  I love it when you toss in that Investools number, this company must do some extraordinary thing to reach that price level.
                  Yes, It's a crazy number but, it gives me comfort knowing my risk is lowered. Investools says that at some point in time, the current share price and the projected prices will meet. One strategy they teach is to also have a 50% margin of safety in a pick. I do try to buy if a stock's current share price is 50% less than the projected price to minimize risk.

                  I do like BIDU quite a bit. I am still watching and waiting for an entry for some $125 March calls or something close to that. It looks like it's still correcting some.
                  Best,
                  Steel
                  It's time to Grab the Bull by the Horns!

                  Comment

                  • wooish
                    Senior Member
                    • Dec 2008
                    • 499

                    #10
                    It looks like u're down quite a bit on the Jan call. I would probably sell some puts but profit margin is low but risk is even lower which gives me extra safety if BIDU goes even lower.

                    Comment

                    • buckhunter
                      Member
                      • Jun 2009
                      • 81

                      #11
                      Big time beat by BIDU

                      BIDU is up nicely in the after hours market thanks to a Q4 beat and upping their Q1 forecast.

                      This might be your next winner, $$MM$$

                      Comment

                      • billyjoe
                        Senior Member
                        • Nov 2003
                        • 9014

                        #12
                        BIDU has hit 118.50 in afterhours trading.

                        ---------billy

                        Comment

                        • jiesen
                          Senior Member
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5319

                          #13
                          gettin very close!

                          122 now, just a bit under the 123 target... one more winner gonna hit soon!

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            #14
                            There it is!

                            -------billy

                            Comment

                            • buckhunter
                              Member
                              • Jun 2009
                              • 81

                              #15
                              Thanks for the BIDU pick

                              I didn't quite make 15%, but close enough. THANK YOU for sharing another winner with us. Looking forward to the Green Bay Packer winner......

                              Comment

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