Tweet
One of the greatest Penn football players ever was Brent Novoselsky. He went on to play for the Minnesota Vikings in the NFL. His 1-yard TD grab from Wade Wilson in the fourth quarter helped put the Vikings up 29-21 - the game's final score, which gave the Vikings the division title over Green Bay - whom they shared a 10-6 record with. Minnesota would have missed the playoffs with a loss.
Unfortunately, the Vikings got sucked into signing Brett Favre, so now they are all horrible.
In honor of Novo, I decided to buy stock today in NVO (Novo Nordisk). Today I bought NVO at 110.79. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 127.66. Here’s the real reason why I like NVO:
Look at this chart! The stock is up 72% in the last 12 months with a trailing PE of only 29. Before you get too excited about the chart, check out the business model:
Novo Nordisk A/S, a healthcare company, engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. It operates in two segments, Diabetes Care and Biopharmaceuticals. The Diabetes Care segment covers insulin franchise, including modern insulins, human insulins, protein-related sales, and oral antidiabetic drugs, as well as GLP-1 analogue. The Biopharmaceuticals segment provides products in the areas of haemophilia, growth hormone therapy, hormone replacement therapy, and inflammation therapy. They have a beautiful office in Princeton, NJ. Right on Rte 1. These guys must be making a lot of money if they have such a nice office building.
Novo Nordisk's business is driven by the Triple Bottom Line: a commitment to social responsibility to employees and customers, environmental soundness and economic success. Headquartered in Denmark, Novo Nordisk employs more than 29,000 employees in 81 countries, and markets its products in 179 countries.
The coolest thing about Novo is that they help people with Diabetes. The other cool thing is they started a campaign called “Where have you flexed?”. Now $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has flexed his guns at 1000’s of places all over the world. So when I found out that Novo actually had a contest, I was like…man I can’t believe I didn’t know about this contest earlier. Actually the guy who won the contest was in a hot air balloon. I don’t know what that has to do with diabetes…but whatever.
Novo Nordisk announced in October that Mark Sides from Longview, Texas is the grand prize winner of the Where Have You Flexed online photo contest. The contest was designed to help change the way people think about taking insulin, and asked those who use Novo Nordisk pre-filled insulin pens to submit photos of unique and interesting places they have gone with their device. Mark received the most votes for a photo of himself with his NovoLog(R) FlexPen(R) (insulin aspart [rDNA origin] injection) in a hot air balloon.
"I entered the contest to show how you really can go anywhere with insulin - even in a hot air balloon!" said Mark Sides, 38, an Emergency Medical Technician. "I don't let my diabetes hold me back, and being able to take my insulin wherever I go, including at work and where my hobbies take me, helps me to live my life the way I want to."
Diabetes mellitus, often simply referred to as diabetes—is a group of metabolic diseases in which a person has high blood sugar, either because the body does not produce enough insulin, or because cells do not respond to the insulin that is produced. This high blood sugar produces the classical symptoms of polyuria (frequent urination), polydipsia (increased thirst) and polyphagia (increased hunger).
There are three main types of diabetes:
Type 1 diabetes: results from the body's failure to produce insulin, and presently requires the person to inject insulin. (Also referred to as insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, IDDM for short, and juvenile diabetes.)
Type 2 diabetes: results from insulin resistance, a condition in which cells fail to use insulin properly, sometimes combined with an absolute insulin deficiency. (Formerly referred to as non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, NIDDM for short, and adult-onset diabetes.)
Gestational diabetes: is when pregnant women, who have never had diabetes before, have a high blood glucose level during pregnancy. It may precede development of type 2 DM.
All forms of diabetes have been treatable since insulin became available in 1921, and type 2 diabetes may be controlled with medications. Both type 1 and 2 are chronic conditions that usually cannot be cured. Pancreas transplants have been tried with limited success in type 1 DM; gastric bypass surgery has been successful in many with morbid obesity and type 2 DM. Gestational diabetes usually resolves after delivery. Diabetes without proper treatments can cause many complications. Acute complications include hypoglycemia, diabetic ketoacidosis, or nonketotic hyperosmolar coma. Serious long-term complications include cardiovascular disease, chronic renal failure, retinal damage. Adequate treatment of diabetes is thus important, as well as blood pressure control and lifestyle factors such as smoking cessation and maintaining a healthy body weight.
As of 2000 at least 171 million people worldwide suffer from diabetes, or 2.8% of the population. Type 2 diabetes is by far the most common, affecting 90 to 95% of the U.S. diabetes population.
In the United States one in 13, or 23.6 million people, have diabetes. Poorly or untreated diabetes can lead to a long list of health complications such as heart disease, stroke, kidney disease, high blood pressure, blindness, nerve problems and amputations.
Now look, I’m telling you about this because diabetes can be very serious. Go see your doctor so you can get checked out. Chances are, someone you love has diabetes. Make sure they get checked out also. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ cares about you.
The U.S. lags behind the rest of the world, with less than 20 percent of people with diabetes using a prefilled insulin pen to inject their insulin. In other parts of the world, pen usage is as high as 85 percent, according to a 2008 survey.
Novo Nordisk makes the Levemir(R) FlexPen(R), NovoLog(R) FlexPen(R), and NovoLog(R) Mix 70/30 FlexPen(R) to provide a portable insulin delivery device as an alternative to using a vial and syringe. To encourage diabetes patients to try the FlexPen(R) - the #1 prefilled insulin pen in the world - the company offers a satisfaction guarantee, with an offer to refund out-of-pocket expenses for FlexPen(R) to any new user who isn't fully satisfied with their FlexPen(R). FlexPen(R) is only available with the Novo Nordisk insulin products.
The FlexPen(R) has an easy-to-use, discreet design that allows patients to accurately set their insulin dose and carry it in their pocket or purse. Once in use, the FlexPen(R) may be stored at room temperature (below 86 degrees F) for up to 42 days with Levemir(R), up to 28 days with NovoLog(R), and up to 14 days with NovoLog(R) Mix 70/30. FlexPen(R) is covered on more than 90 percent of insurance plans.
NVO is a leader in the battle against the growing epidemic of diabetes. Their products accounted for about 51% of global diabetes treatment sales in 2009. Because of this, NVO is looking at an 18.4% long-term growth rate, 16% earnings growth expected next year, $3.3 billion in operating cash flow and near-zero debt. That’s a lot of growth for a company of this size. Novo also pays a 1.3% dividend.
Obesity is driving the onset of diabetes. Everyone knows that people are getting fatter. The trend is not changing. Novo has not seen much competition from generics given their large economies of scale and cost advantages in production. Novo also has an experimental insulin, Degludec, in the pipeline which is expected to make a big splash in 2013. They very recently had a positive phase III clinical trial result for Degludec. Unfortunately diabetes is becoming big business but Degludec could be a HUGE combatant.
Novo said it will commit up to $100 million to expand its Beijing R&D center. As much as $40 million of that will go to build new labs for diabetes research. The company plans to have the new labs finished late next year and occupy them in 2012. Novo Nordisk says the growth will make its center the largest wholly-owned foreign R&D operation in China. We all know how Wall Street is going cuckoo for China! Novo has a 35% share of the Chinese diabetes market. With the billions of Chinese people, the potential for diabetes treatment in China is enormous. Worldwide the total market for diabetes treatment is $14 billion per year.
There has been much discussion, in conjunction with health care reform that coroners will be urged to list diabetes complications as a precondition in death certificates. This means that public health officials will then re-allocate more research funds to diabetes which will raise awareness, and treatment spending.
For all the good things that NVO is doing for diabetics, it’s treating its shareholders just as well. NVO’s return on equity rose to 27% last year, its highest level in years. The company has a five-year earnings per share growth rate of 23%. The long term debt is miniscule and they are funding their growth with their abundant cash flow.
ANAL-ysts project 2010 earnings of $4.45 per share followed by 2011 earnings of $5.21 per share. Associated projected revenues, according to them, would be $10.9 billion and $12.0 billion respectively.
So I guess their just not paying very close attention..eh? Look at the sales trend:
Year Sales EPS
2002 $3.7 billion $0.84
2003 $4.7 billion $1.21
2004 $5.3 billion $1.36
2005 $5.4 billion $1.42
2006 $6.9 billion $1.78
2007 $8.3 billion $2.64
2008 $8.6 billion $2.93
2009 $9.9 billion $3.46
Unlike most big pharma companies, Novo has been growing their company organically, without acquisitions. This growth that they have shown is clean and unmitigated by accounting games. Their sales are growing because more people are getting sick and they are treating more of them. This trend ain’t gonna change. These fundamentals are, at least for now, irreversible.
Predicting the actual results is pretty easy. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinkas that 2011 revenue is going to come in at $13.5 billion which will funnel down to EPS of $5.97 per share. Using the PE of 29.10, that translates to a stock price of $173.73. Kaa –ching…kaa-ching…kaaaa-ching.
So while NVO is helping people get well, NVO stock will also help $$$MR. MARKET$$$.
I am HUGE!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
www.mrmarketishuge.com
Unfortunately, the Vikings got sucked into signing Brett Favre, so now they are all horrible.
In honor of Novo, I decided to buy stock today in NVO (Novo Nordisk). Today I bought NVO at 110.79. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 127.66. Here’s the real reason why I like NVO:
Look at this chart! The stock is up 72% in the last 12 months with a trailing PE of only 29. Before you get too excited about the chart, check out the business model:
Novo Nordisk A/S, a healthcare company, engages in the discovery, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products. It operates in two segments, Diabetes Care and Biopharmaceuticals. The Diabetes Care segment covers insulin franchise, including modern insulins, human insulins, protein-related sales, and oral antidiabetic drugs, as well as GLP-1 analogue. The Biopharmaceuticals segment provides products in the areas of haemophilia, growth hormone therapy, hormone replacement therapy, and inflammation therapy. They have a beautiful office in Princeton, NJ. Right on Rte 1. These guys must be making a lot of money if they have such a nice office building.
Novo Nordisk's business is driven by the Triple Bottom Line: a commitment to social responsibility to employees and customers, environmental soundness and economic success. Headquartered in Denmark, Novo Nordisk employs more than 29,000 employees in 81 countries, and markets its products in 179 countries.
The coolest thing about Novo is that they help people with Diabetes. The other cool thing is they started a campaign called “Where have you flexed?”. Now $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has flexed his guns at 1000’s of places all over the world. So when I found out that Novo actually had a contest, I was like…man I can’t believe I didn’t know about this contest earlier. Actually the guy who won the contest was in a hot air balloon. I don’t know what that has to do with diabetes…but whatever.
Novo Nordisk announced in October that Mark Sides from Longview, Texas is the grand prize winner of the Where Have You Flexed online photo contest. The contest was designed to help change the way people think about taking insulin, and asked those who use Novo Nordisk pre-filled insulin pens to submit photos of unique and interesting places they have gone with their device. Mark received the most votes for a photo of himself with his NovoLog(R) FlexPen(R) (insulin aspart [rDNA origin] injection) in a hot air balloon.
"I entered the contest to show how you really can go anywhere with insulin - even in a hot air balloon!" said Mark Sides, 38, an Emergency Medical Technician. "I don't let my diabetes hold me back, and being able to take my insulin wherever I go, including at work and where my hobbies take me, helps me to live my life the way I want to."
Diabetes mellitus, often simply referred to as diabetes—is a group of metabolic diseases in which a person has high blood sugar, either because the body does not produce enough insulin, or because cells do not respond to the insulin that is produced. This high blood sugar produces the classical symptoms of polyuria (frequent urination), polydipsia (increased thirst) and polyphagia (increased hunger).
There are three main types of diabetes:
Type 1 diabetes: results from the body's failure to produce insulin, and presently requires the person to inject insulin. (Also referred to as insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, IDDM for short, and juvenile diabetes.)
Type 2 diabetes: results from insulin resistance, a condition in which cells fail to use insulin properly, sometimes combined with an absolute insulin deficiency. (Formerly referred to as non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, NIDDM for short, and adult-onset diabetes.)
Gestational diabetes: is when pregnant women, who have never had diabetes before, have a high blood glucose level during pregnancy. It may precede development of type 2 DM.
All forms of diabetes have been treatable since insulin became available in 1921, and type 2 diabetes may be controlled with medications. Both type 1 and 2 are chronic conditions that usually cannot be cured. Pancreas transplants have been tried with limited success in type 1 DM; gastric bypass surgery has been successful in many with morbid obesity and type 2 DM. Gestational diabetes usually resolves after delivery. Diabetes without proper treatments can cause many complications. Acute complications include hypoglycemia, diabetic ketoacidosis, or nonketotic hyperosmolar coma. Serious long-term complications include cardiovascular disease, chronic renal failure, retinal damage. Adequate treatment of diabetes is thus important, as well as blood pressure control and lifestyle factors such as smoking cessation and maintaining a healthy body weight.
As of 2000 at least 171 million people worldwide suffer from diabetes, or 2.8% of the population. Type 2 diabetes is by far the most common, affecting 90 to 95% of the U.S. diabetes population.
In the United States one in 13, or 23.6 million people, have diabetes. Poorly or untreated diabetes can lead to a long list of health complications such as heart disease, stroke, kidney disease, high blood pressure, blindness, nerve problems and amputations.
Now look, I’m telling you about this because diabetes can be very serious. Go see your doctor so you can get checked out. Chances are, someone you love has diabetes. Make sure they get checked out also. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ cares about you.
The U.S. lags behind the rest of the world, with less than 20 percent of people with diabetes using a prefilled insulin pen to inject their insulin. In other parts of the world, pen usage is as high as 85 percent, according to a 2008 survey.
Novo Nordisk makes the Levemir(R) FlexPen(R), NovoLog(R) FlexPen(R), and NovoLog(R) Mix 70/30 FlexPen(R) to provide a portable insulin delivery device as an alternative to using a vial and syringe. To encourage diabetes patients to try the FlexPen(R) - the #1 prefilled insulin pen in the world - the company offers a satisfaction guarantee, with an offer to refund out-of-pocket expenses for FlexPen(R) to any new user who isn't fully satisfied with their FlexPen(R). FlexPen(R) is only available with the Novo Nordisk insulin products.
The FlexPen(R) has an easy-to-use, discreet design that allows patients to accurately set their insulin dose and carry it in their pocket or purse. Once in use, the FlexPen(R) may be stored at room temperature (below 86 degrees F) for up to 42 days with Levemir(R), up to 28 days with NovoLog(R), and up to 14 days with NovoLog(R) Mix 70/30. FlexPen(R) is covered on more than 90 percent of insurance plans.
NVO is a leader in the battle against the growing epidemic of diabetes. Their products accounted for about 51% of global diabetes treatment sales in 2009. Because of this, NVO is looking at an 18.4% long-term growth rate, 16% earnings growth expected next year, $3.3 billion in operating cash flow and near-zero debt. That’s a lot of growth for a company of this size. Novo also pays a 1.3% dividend.
Obesity is driving the onset of diabetes. Everyone knows that people are getting fatter. The trend is not changing. Novo has not seen much competition from generics given their large economies of scale and cost advantages in production. Novo also has an experimental insulin, Degludec, in the pipeline which is expected to make a big splash in 2013. They very recently had a positive phase III clinical trial result for Degludec. Unfortunately diabetes is becoming big business but Degludec could be a HUGE combatant.
Novo said it will commit up to $100 million to expand its Beijing R&D center. As much as $40 million of that will go to build new labs for diabetes research. The company plans to have the new labs finished late next year and occupy them in 2012. Novo Nordisk says the growth will make its center the largest wholly-owned foreign R&D operation in China. We all know how Wall Street is going cuckoo for China! Novo has a 35% share of the Chinese diabetes market. With the billions of Chinese people, the potential for diabetes treatment in China is enormous. Worldwide the total market for diabetes treatment is $14 billion per year.
There has been much discussion, in conjunction with health care reform that coroners will be urged to list diabetes complications as a precondition in death certificates. This means that public health officials will then re-allocate more research funds to diabetes which will raise awareness, and treatment spending.
For all the good things that NVO is doing for diabetics, it’s treating its shareholders just as well. NVO’s return on equity rose to 27% last year, its highest level in years. The company has a five-year earnings per share growth rate of 23%. The long term debt is miniscule and they are funding their growth with their abundant cash flow.
ANAL-ysts project 2010 earnings of $4.45 per share followed by 2011 earnings of $5.21 per share. Associated projected revenues, according to them, would be $10.9 billion and $12.0 billion respectively.
So I guess their just not paying very close attention..eh? Look at the sales trend:
Year Sales EPS
2002 $3.7 billion $0.84
2003 $4.7 billion $1.21
2004 $5.3 billion $1.36
2005 $5.4 billion $1.42
2006 $6.9 billion $1.78
2007 $8.3 billion $2.64
2008 $8.6 billion $2.93
2009 $9.9 billion $3.46
Unlike most big pharma companies, Novo has been growing their company organically, without acquisitions. This growth that they have shown is clean and unmitigated by accounting games. Their sales are growing because more people are getting sick and they are treating more of them. This trend ain’t gonna change. These fundamentals are, at least for now, irreversible.
Predicting the actual results is pretty easy. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinkas that 2011 revenue is going to come in at $13.5 billion which will funnel down to EPS of $5.97 per share. Using the PE of 29.10, that translates to a stock price of $173.73. Kaa –ching…kaa-ching…kaaaa-ching.
So while NVO is helping people get well, NVO stock will also help $$$MR. MARKET$$$.
I am HUGE!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
www.mrmarketishuge.com
Comment