Any Options traders here?

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  • Megafauna
    Member
    • Mar 2008
    • 63

    #16
    Originally posted by smaskell View Post
    An impossibly open question. The thing about options is while there are a lot of wrong answers, there is no single right answer either. With MrM picks, while he says he will sell 4-6 weeks he actually holds until the target is reached regardless of time frame. That's OK if you own stock but not if you own options. Now you have an absolute deadline. You know you're not going to lose more than $35 per contract but if it doesn't move in your favor soon enough you can lose it all. The bid-ask spread on thinly traded OTM options is also huge. Looking right now there is a .15 difference between bid and ask. That's almost 50% of your option. Your option has to gain .15 just for you to break even. The current delta on that option is .16. That means the stock has to move $1 for your option to move 16 cents. So HS has to move to $38.5 for you to break even. Not a big deal if you're confident that it will hit $42 in 4 weeks but time is your enemy. MrM doesn't use technicals when opening his positions but in my opinion when buying options timing is everything. Good Luck.
    So what you're saying is I should've gotten the May 16 $40 calls on HS right? lol

    But the $40 call is the correct call to get of course right? Mr.Market's target is $42 and since it's in the high 30s now $40 calls seem just perfect you know?

    I just checked those calls and they are now at .30/.45. That's fairly good considering they were .25/.35 just yesterday and we're talking holding these for about a month.

    You know how hard it is to buy at the bid or inbetween the bid and ask on options? With pennies it happens sometimes and with big boards it happens a lot especially if there is a lot of volume. But with big boards it often doesn't matter since they stocks are so expenive a few pennies either way doesn't matter. lol
    Last edited by Megafauna; 03-24-2011, 12:16 PM.

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    • steelman
      Senior Member
      • Jun 2008
      • 648

      #17
      I typically buy Call options in $$$MM's$$$ picks but not necessarily on the day he buys. Options are all about momentum. You need to watch the charts to know when to enter the trade and catch it on the way up and get out quick. I typically hold my Call positions for 2-4 weeks on average. I tend to buy 45-60 days out and the NEXT out of the money price.
      Best,
      Steel
      It's time to Grab the Bull by the Horns!

      Comment

      • papagatorga
        Junior Member
        • Apr 2006
        • 5

        #18
        Megafuna - I was a stockbroker for 10 years. Over that 10 years I never had a client show a 12 month profit, buying options. Some may have 4-6 month runs but at the end of the year none ever claimed a profit. Option sellers did better. Of course their underlining stocks won and lost, but their option profits offset much of the stock loss. Most of the guidance above is right on.
        I PLAY options because I like action, even knowing the odds against me. Please just use your gambling money. One can be absolutely right on the stock pick, but lose everything because the timing was off.

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        • Megafauna
          Member
          • Mar 2008
          • 63

          #19
          Originally posted by papagatorga View Post
          Megafuna - I was a stockbroker for 10 years. Over that 10 years I never had a client show a 12 month profit, buying options. Some may have 4-6 month runs but at the end of the year none ever claimed a profit. Option sellers did better. Of course their underlining stocks won and lost, but their option profits offset much of the stock loss. Most of the guidance above is right on.
          I PLAY options because I like action, even knowing the odds against me. Please just use your gambling money. One can be absolutely right on the stock pick, but lose everything because the timing was off.
          Wow, that's pretty interesting but since YOU were the stock broker weren't you the one doing the trading for your clients?

          I've been following the 6/18 FOSL $105 call since MM announced the pick and it's down a fair amount so far. I picked that price since MM target was $107 and that date since you guys advised to give it longer than the 4-6 weeks.

          Did you see how HS did?? That quadrupled less than 2 to 3 weeks after MM called it! I don't recall which call I followed but the one I spotted was about .25 and then it went all the way up to $1.30! THAT is what we're trying to achieve!

          I take it that was an exception and getting calls on MM picks usually don't work out that well so fast?

          Comment

          • papagatorga
            Junior Member
            • Apr 2006
            • 5

            #20
            ZSL forming a real SQUEEZE. It may never signal a buy however.

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            • Megafauna
              Member
              • Mar 2008
              • 63

              #21
              Originally posted by papagatorga View Post
              ZSL forming a real SQUEEZE. It may never signal a buy however.
              Hello my friend. Can you please e-mail me?

              I sent you an e-mail recently but didn't get a response. How's the options trading going?

              Comment

              • Megafauna
                Member
                • Mar 2008
                • 63

                #22
                Hey Papagatora or anyone else? How are the options trades going? I sent you an e-mail.

                I'm looking at some GS calls for July. The 140.

                Comment

                • rockgeo
                  Junior Member
                  • Jan 2012
                  • 1

                  #23
                  Squeeze with no buy

                  Take a look at the following, would you consider these as squeeze occurrences without a buy signal?

                  NFP mid june 2011
                  nfx end aug 2011
                  ngas mid nov 2011
                  ngas beg june, 2010 - this one may have generated a buy

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