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I was trying to think of something funny to write about TIBCO, but it’s getting late and this beer is cold and delicious so I’d rather just drink the beer and watch TV.
Today I bought TIBCO Software (TIBX) at 25.59. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 29.48. Here’s why I like TIBCO.
Well, first of all, look at this chart:
The stock is up 170% in the last 52 weeks and doesn’t look like its stopping any time soon. Sure the PE is expensive (55.59) but when you look at its forward PE (25), it’s fairly cheap for a software company. Yea..that’s right, it makes software.
TIBCO Software Inc. provides infrastructure software solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. The company offers its products in the areas of service-oriented architecture (SOA), business optimization, and business process management (BPM). Its SOA product line turns information and functions into discrete and reusable components that can be invoked from across the business and aggregated with other such services to create infrastructure applications; and delivers capabilities in the areas of service mediation, orchestration and communication, and the development of Internet applications. The company’s business optimization product portfolio assists organizations convert and analyze data to create information and deliver it to employees, customers, and partners. Its BPM product line assists organizations to coordinate the human and electronic resources inside a business, as well as its network of customers and partners. The company also provides various professional services, including systems planning, design, installation, and integration, as well as offers various training, and maintenance and support services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Look..I have know idea what any of this stuff really means or does but what I do know is that these guys are as successful as I am at getting the bartender to serve me an ice cold Colorado Kool Aid when I snap my fingers. But I’ll try to splain anyway.
Tibco is trying to capitalize on the new wave which is social networking. Now look, I’m not a big fan of Facebook. I use it, but not to the extent that I no longer use webpages and email. I mean I hate it when people email me using Facebook. I have an email address ([email protected]) and I do read all of my email. I do not read all of my Facebook messages.
Having said that, Tibco now has a software product that allows companies to keep their employees connected in a social networking format. Yes…Joann “likes” root beer. David “likes” the Black Eyed Peas. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ likes beer. How this helps your company, I don’t know. But the software, called Tibbr, allows users to follow fellow employees to get information they need, along with the relevant IT applications to get this info. I kind of think it’s like stalking the cute girl who you see in the cafeteria but don’t know her name. I don’t want to go there..but that makes me creep out a little. As Mike would say on “Jersey Shore” - looks like we got a Situation.
Anyway, companies that use Tibbr pay a user subscription fee. If lots of companies use it, that’s a lot of fees. Tibco also makes software that links corporate systems and helps them talk to each other. That’s a lot more old worldly, but equally as necessary as Tibbr. But lets “face” it…if today’s kids want to go work in the world and feel good using Facebooky software…maybe Tibco is onto something? If they are, there are lots of users out there in many thousands of companies. When I’m at work, I can’t call people on their deskphones anymore. These stupid kids are always carrying their cellphones (or smartphones) around in their office. Come to think of it, I actually placed this TIBX trade on my Blackberry while I was driving to Jeffrey’s wrestling match. So go figure.
Anyway, here is their official press release on it:
SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(Marketwire - 01/24/11) - TIBCO Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX - News) today announced the general availability of tibbr®. This groundbreaking platform for the workplace is the first social computing tool that allows employees, customers and partners to interact with each other -- and with information and events generated by their enterprise IT systems.
tibbr builds on TIBCO's decade of experience of providing mission-critical software that allows organizations to connect enterprise systems for real-time communication. Is a shipment running late? Has a purchase order been signed by the customer? By linking key applications, systems and business processes, tibbr makes following contextually relevant information as easy as following a co-worker in the next cubicle.
tibbr breaks business users free from one-dimensional social tools that focus on people by allowing information to be organized by subject or topic. tibbr enables users to create, contribute to, and subscribe to the real-time event streams that matter most to them. By using tibbr's highly customizable subject structure and classification system, companies can build a hierarchy and information model that works best for them. tibbr users can also subscribe to feeds from external programs such as, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Google Alerts.
This all sounds like a lot of pie in the sky, but people are indeed buying it. In their most recently reported 4th quarter, revenue rose 23% surpassing ANAL-ysts expectations. TIBX also had huge growth in their big accounts while net income rose 18%. TIBCO’s management approved a $300 million stock buyback…are they onto something? They think the stock is cheap here??
Total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 was $241.2 million and net income was $37.5 million, or $0.22 per diluted share. This compares to total revenue of $195.6 million and net income of $31.7 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, as reported for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009.
Full Year Fiscal 2010 Highlights
n Total revenue of $754.0 million;-- Non-GAAP operating margin was 25%;-- Record non-GAAP EPS of $0.76, vs. $0.55 for fiscal 2009;-- Cash flow from operations of $148.8 million; and-- Repurchased 15.1 million shares.
The company saw 165 deals over $100,000 in value, up from 127 a year earlier, and 25 deals over $1 million versus 19 a year earlier.
These guys are growing like crazy. They have a 21% CAGR since 1999. They have vertically diversified their business and keep adding customers to the pile. Their existing customers are spending more on their software, while they are adding NEW customers. They hit all kinds of industries. They are diversified AND they are growing. Wow!
ANAL-ysts expect 15-cents in the first quarter. Are they insane? For the past four quarters, earnings have grown by at least 31% and sales by at least 17%. Sales rose 23% to $241.2 million. ANAL-ysts see 2011 earnings rising 17% to 89 cents a share. They forecast a 15% gain in 2012.
Ok..let me get this straight. Does anyone remember that we are coming out of a recession? There is a crap load of pent up spending that was held down due to company budget cuts. But that has all changed now. Look at all the other software companies, their sales are going up like crazy….no different here. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees 2011 revenues of $963 million which will drive $1.15/share of earnings. Even if you take a very modest PE of 28 and multiply it to these earnings, you get a target share price of $32.20 which means I have yet another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner.
Another thing to think about when you look at the TIBX stock price. Software companies this size don’t have a very long lifespan. Sooner or later, one of the giants is going to step up and swallow these guys so they can add their earnings to their bottom lines. I doubt we’ll see TIBX on the ticker in 2015. There’s just too many IBM’s and Oracles that make a living eating these companies for breakfast. But for now, TIBX will continue to grow and continue to earn.
Here’s what the boss had to say…he believes his niche is here....in the Two Second Advantage:
“If you have just a little bit of the right information beforehand, it doesn’t have to be six months beforehand, it could be two seconds or two minutes, or two hours beforehand, just a little bit of the right information beforehand, is more valuable than all the information in the world six months after. This is the Two Second Advantage.”
"TIBCO turned in an excellent year in 2010 -- demonstrating our innovation leadership, broadening our business model, and delivering substantially higher growth and profit to our shareholders," said Vivek Ranadivé, TIBCO's chairman and chief executive officer. "As we turn to 2011, we are in an excellent position to benefit from three key trends in enterprise IT: mobility, cloud computing and real-time information. These trends are generating massive amounts of data and increasing IT complexity, which plays to our core strengths of simplifying systems deployment and integration and distilling insight from disparate pools of information."
“ Tibco is providing the middleware so people can put their infrastructure and their applications in the cloud. What Levi Strauss did during the gold rush is provide jeans so people could get gold. We're doing that for the cloud -- we're providing the tools and the infrastructure so people can leverage cloud solutions. “
“But we are actually seeing great opportunities in the emerging markets. Brazil is one of our fastest-growing markets, as is India. We've seen great success in China. So we're investing heavily in all those markets, and we're tasting success there.”
“So even though the stock has outperformed, we believe the best days are still ahead for the company.”
Well…I still don’t understand what this company does. Maybe someone else can explain it in a way a two year old would understand it but I love love love their revenues and earnings and I am feeling pretty good about what that will do to this stock price.
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
Today I bought TIBCO Software (TIBX) at 25.59. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 29.48. Here’s why I like TIBCO.
Well, first of all, look at this chart:
The stock is up 170% in the last 52 weeks and doesn’t look like its stopping any time soon. Sure the PE is expensive (55.59) but when you look at its forward PE (25), it’s fairly cheap for a software company. Yea..that’s right, it makes software.
TIBCO Software Inc. provides infrastructure software solutions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. The company offers its products in the areas of service-oriented architecture (SOA), business optimization, and business process management (BPM). Its SOA product line turns information and functions into discrete and reusable components that can be invoked from across the business and aggregated with other such services to create infrastructure applications; and delivers capabilities in the areas of service mediation, orchestration and communication, and the development of Internet applications. The company’s business optimization product portfolio assists organizations convert and analyze data to create information and deliver it to employees, customers, and partners. Its BPM product line assists organizations to coordinate the human and electronic resources inside a business, as well as its network of customers and partners. The company also provides various professional services, including systems planning, design, installation, and integration, as well as offers various training, and maintenance and support services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Look..I have know idea what any of this stuff really means or does but what I do know is that these guys are as successful as I am at getting the bartender to serve me an ice cold Colorado Kool Aid when I snap my fingers. But I’ll try to splain anyway.
Tibco is trying to capitalize on the new wave which is social networking. Now look, I’m not a big fan of Facebook. I use it, but not to the extent that I no longer use webpages and email. I mean I hate it when people email me using Facebook. I have an email address ([email protected]) and I do read all of my email. I do not read all of my Facebook messages.
Having said that, Tibco now has a software product that allows companies to keep their employees connected in a social networking format. Yes…Joann “likes” root beer. David “likes” the Black Eyed Peas. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ likes beer. How this helps your company, I don’t know. But the software, called Tibbr, allows users to follow fellow employees to get information they need, along with the relevant IT applications to get this info. I kind of think it’s like stalking the cute girl who you see in the cafeteria but don’t know her name. I don’t want to go there..but that makes me creep out a little. As Mike would say on “Jersey Shore” - looks like we got a Situation.
Anyway, companies that use Tibbr pay a user subscription fee. If lots of companies use it, that’s a lot of fees. Tibco also makes software that links corporate systems and helps them talk to each other. That’s a lot more old worldly, but equally as necessary as Tibbr. But lets “face” it…if today’s kids want to go work in the world and feel good using Facebooky software…maybe Tibco is onto something? If they are, there are lots of users out there in many thousands of companies. When I’m at work, I can’t call people on their deskphones anymore. These stupid kids are always carrying their cellphones (or smartphones) around in their office. Come to think of it, I actually placed this TIBX trade on my Blackberry while I was driving to Jeffrey’s wrestling match. So go figure.
Anyway, here is their official press release on it:
SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(Marketwire - 01/24/11) - TIBCO Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TIBX - News) today announced the general availability of tibbr®. This groundbreaking platform for the workplace is the first social computing tool that allows employees, customers and partners to interact with each other -- and with information and events generated by their enterprise IT systems.
tibbr builds on TIBCO's decade of experience of providing mission-critical software that allows organizations to connect enterprise systems for real-time communication. Is a shipment running late? Has a purchase order been signed by the customer? By linking key applications, systems and business processes, tibbr makes following contextually relevant information as easy as following a co-worker in the next cubicle.
tibbr breaks business users free from one-dimensional social tools that focus on people by allowing information to be organized by subject or topic. tibbr enables users to create, contribute to, and subscribe to the real-time event streams that matter most to them. By using tibbr's highly customizable subject structure and classification system, companies can build a hierarchy and information model that works best for them. tibbr users can also subscribe to feeds from external programs such as, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Google Alerts.
This all sounds like a lot of pie in the sky, but people are indeed buying it. In their most recently reported 4th quarter, revenue rose 23% surpassing ANAL-ysts expectations. TIBX also had huge growth in their big accounts while net income rose 18%. TIBCO’s management approved a $300 million stock buyback…are they onto something? They think the stock is cheap here??
Total revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010 was $241.2 million and net income was $37.5 million, or $0.22 per diluted share. This compares to total revenue of $195.6 million and net income of $31.7 million, or $0.18 per diluted share, as reported for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009.
Full Year Fiscal 2010 Highlights
n Total revenue of $754.0 million;-- Non-GAAP operating margin was 25%;-- Record non-GAAP EPS of $0.76, vs. $0.55 for fiscal 2009;-- Cash flow from operations of $148.8 million; and-- Repurchased 15.1 million shares.
The company saw 165 deals over $100,000 in value, up from 127 a year earlier, and 25 deals over $1 million versus 19 a year earlier.
These guys are growing like crazy. They have a 21% CAGR since 1999. They have vertically diversified their business and keep adding customers to the pile. Their existing customers are spending more on their software, while they are adding NEW customers. They hit all kinds of industries. They are diversified AND they are growing. Wow!
ANAL-ysts expect 15-cents in the first quarter. Are they insane? For the past four quarters, earnings have grown by at least 31% and sales by at least 17%. Sales rose 23% to $241.2 million. ANAL-ysts see 2011 earnings rising 17% to 89 cents a share. They forecast a 15% gain in 2012.
Ok..let me get this straight. Does anyone remember that we are coming out of a recession? There is a crap load of pent up spending that was held down due to company budget cuts. But that has all changed now. Look at all the other software companies, their sales are going up like crazy….no different here. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees 2011 revenues of $963 million which will drive $1.15/share of earnings. Even if you take a very modest PE of 28 and multiply it to these earnings, you get a target share price of $32.20 which means I have yet another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner.
Another thing to think about when you look at the TIBX stock price. Software companies this size don’t have a very long lifespan. Sooner or later, one of the giants is going to step up and swallow these guys so they can add their earnings to their bottom lines. I doubt we’ll see TIBX on the ticker in 2015. There’s just too many IBM’s and Oracles that make a living eating these companies for breakfast. But for now, TIBX will continue to grow and continue to earn.
Here’s what the boss had to say…he believes his niche is here....in the Two Second Advantage:
“If you have just a little bit of the right information beforehand, it doesn’t have to be six months beforehand, it could be two seconds or two minutes, or two hours beforehand, just a little bit of the right information beforehand, is more valuable than all the information in the world six months after. This is the Two Second Advantage.”
"TIBCO turned in an excellent year in 2010 -- demonstrating our innovation leadership, broadening our business model, and delivering substantially higher growth and profit to our shareholders," said Vivek Ranadivé, TIBCO's chairman and chief executive officer. "As we turn to 2011, we are in an excellent position to benefit from three key trends in enterprise IT: mobility, cloud computing and real-time information. These trends are generating massive amounts of data and increasing IT complexity, which plays to our core strengths of simplifying systems deployment and integration and distilling insight from disparate pools of information."
“ Tibco is providing the middleware so people can put their infrastructure and their applications in the cloud. What Levi Strauss did during the gold rush is provide jeans so people could get gold. We're doing that for the cloud -- we're providing the tools and the infrastructure so people can leverage cloud solutions. “
“But we are actually seeing great opportunities in the emerging markets. Brazil is one of our fastest-growing markets, as is India. We've seen great success in China. So we're investing heavily in all those markets, and we're tasting success there.”
“So even though the stock has outperformed, we believe the best days are still ahead for the company.”
Well…I still don’t understand what this company does. Maybe someone else can explain it in a way a two year old would understand it but I love love love their revenues and earnings and I am feeling pretty good about what that will do to this stock price.
I am HUGE!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
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