My batting average

[Deaddog]

See the Stops are for wimps thread

Regards,

Karel

Karel:

I read through the thread.
I can see where the method can operate without stops.

The thread ended in 2004. Have you run the numbers recently? How did things go during the meltdown in 2008? I noticed that the records on the Home Page start in 2009.

I also noticed that there is a wide variation in Annualized Gain. Has any research been done into dropping a stock if it does not perform in a timely manner? Kind of a time stop. If the stock hasn’t hit the target in 12 weeks, sell and put the money to work in a better performer rather than wait for the stock to hit the target which may take several more weeks if not months.

Time is money. A 30% annualized gain will beat the market. A 200% gain kicks ths sh*t out of it.

[mrmarket]

Greetings, Large Person.

I can't say I've ever seen you mention using margin. If you find yourself able to make consistent profits over a number of years would it not be fairly safe and advantageous to leverage your holdings?

It's the Armenian in me. I don't do margin.

[riverbabe]

See the Stops are for wimps thread

Regards,

Karel

I almost cried. Wish those good times could roll again.

[Karel]

This question has been asked a bazillion times on this forum and Karel, our resident genius, actually backtested it. It turns out that if I hold the stocks, I end up outperforming the market.

See the Stops are for wimps thread

Regards,

Karel

[smaskell]

Never mind

What does that mean? Do you use a trailing stop? Otherwise how do you know when the market has "given" enough or has more to "give"?

You answered the question in your Lazy Dog picks thread. I read this one first.
thx
Scott

[smaskell]

??

As for goals I take what the market gives me.

What does that mean? Do you use a trailing stop? Otherwise how do you know when the market has "given" enough or has more to "give"?

thx
Scott

[Louetta]

Greetings, Large Person.

I can't say I've ever seen you mention using margin. If you find yourself able to make consistent profits over a number of years would it not be fairly safe and advantageous to leverage your holdings?

[mrmarket]

How long will you hold a stock that turns out to be a pure value play that isn’t recognised by the market?

Your write-ups usually include “I will sell for a 15% profit in 4 to 6 weeks”

Looking at your holdings there are stocks you have held for a long time. A couple of stocks have been held for over 26 weeks (1/2 year).
Is having that capital tied up for that long, missing other opportunities, a prudent use of your money?
I’m not saying that these stocks are poor picks or that they won’t eventually hit the target. I’m saying that sometimes the market doesn’t recognize the value for quite a while which leaves you holding stuff that isn’t moving.

This question has been asked a bazillion times on this forum and Karel, our resident genius, actually backtested it. It turns out that if I hold the stocks, I end up outperforming the market.

[Deaddog]

Here's the rub. When you are a pure value investor, you aren't looking at price momentum. While their is nothing wrong with value investing, you may be correct in your analysis but the market may not pick up on it for a while. I like buying stuff that is already moving so I don't have that issue.

How long will you hold a stock that turns out to be a pure value play that isn’t recognised by the market?

Your write-ups usually include “I will sell for a 15% profit in 4 to 6 weeks”

Looking at your holdings there are stocks you have held for a long time. A couple of stocks have been held for over 26 weeks (1/2 year).
Is having that capital tied up for that long, missing other opportunities, a prudent use of your money?
I’m not saying that these stocks are poor picks or that they won’t eventually hit the target. I’m saying that sometimes the market doesn’t recognize the value for quite a while which leaves you holding stuff that isn’t moving.

[Deaddog]

Thanks MrM! I'm always interested in learning others' position sizing rules. Any others want to chime in here?
I'd also be interested in what goals people tend to have for their entire account per month. I shoot for 4-5% per month on the total account. Others?

Scott

I invest an equal amount per position. As I’m now holding 8 positions I have 12.5% in each.

As for goals I take what the market gives me.

[steelman]

I was told that that no more than 2% of your total portfolio should be invested in any trade since this should be the maximum you could afford to loose. I don't stick to this because I have only been trading for 2 years and am still building my account. I tend to be in the 5-10% range for a trade.

[smaskell]

Good info...

I am embarrassed to say I decide how much once I'm done with my analysis. Say my base unit is x. If I feel really good about a company I might go 3x. If I feel a little unsure, I may go 1/2 x. I always shoot for 14 stocks in my portfolio, so if I have less than 14 filled, I will have cash available to invest.

Thanks MrM! I'm always interested in learning others' position sizing rules. Any others want to chime in here? I admit I have to fight the inclination to go "all in" when I find a pick I REALLY like. 7% per trade is a pretty common amount you hear thrown around. I tend to spend a lot of time on evaluation and be a little heavier than that.

I'd also be interested in what goals people tend to have for their entire account per month. I shoot for 4-5% per month on the total account. Others?

Scott

[mrmarket]

Congratulations, large person. I sincerely wish you well.

I wouldst ask a question about portfolio construction. In following your picks should one put a fixed percentage into each new pick? E.g. you have 9 outstanding picks so are you essentially equally invested in each, plus or minus whatever each pick has gained or lost? Do you always have excess cash so you can buy a new pick without waiting for money to open up when you sell a pick at 15% profit? (Using some margin when needed might help here.)

I guess what I'm saying is how do you decide how much to put into each new pick on the BUY side? Your SELL rule is unambiguous (I think).

Appreciate your feedback.

I am embarrassed to say I decide how much once I'm done with my analysis. Say my base unit is x. If I feel really good about a company I might go 3x. If I feel a little unsure, I may go 1/2 x. I always shoot for 14 stocks in my portfolio, so if I have less than 14 filled, I will have cash available to invest.

Welcome back!

[mrmarket]

How does your success relate to an overall percentage increase in your portfolio? I'm just over 114% gain on a rolling 12 month basis which I think is pretty spectacular but I'm always looking to improve.

You should post them here for us to see. That would be great for everyone.

[jiesen]

I just checked....of my last 33 buys, 24 have been sold at a profit of 15% or better. 5 are trading at a price higher than I paid and only 4 are in the red.

That means I have been successful so far in 29 of my last 33 picks. That's a hit rate of 88%.

I am HUGE?

That is indeed an outstanding batting average, $$MM! I wish I had as good a record... o waitasec, I do! (except mine are usually 14%, and I missed out on CMG) Thanks for the amazing streak of winning trades, $$MM, you are HUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!!!!!