disaster management

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  • pftrader
    Junior Member
    • Dec 2009
    • 24

    disaster management

    Please forgive me if I am re-introducing a subject that has been discussed before, but I'd like to get a clear view on how you mitigate the risk as stops are not favored in the "vanilla" Mr.Market methodology.

    I realize that the positions that are taken are fundamentally strong companies, and as such could be considered for holding a long time. I.e. if the trade goes against you, you can just sit tight and know that you own a great company that investors would anyway own for years.

    Another way of minimizing risk is to hold a portfolio and diversify the market risk on several stocks.

    But when would you actually liquidate your losing position? Based on what kind of knowledge?

    If the company has had awesome revenue growth and earnings the past few years, but then suddenly stops performing after you purchased its stocks. If the following year was a losing year? If you had owned Nokia and you saw Apple taking market share? What then?

    And what about general market conditions, e.g. the Financial Crisis - did this affect your positions?

    Are you just confident enough that even if you would lose the entire position (in any one trade, e.g. company bankrupt) you would still be profitable over time. E.g. if your capital is 100.000 spread over 10 trades with 10K each. Even if you would lose full 10K in one company you would be winning overall.
  • billyjoe
    Senior Member
    • Nov 2003
    • 9014

    #2
    pftrader,
    If you have a strict stop , say 10%, on every stock in your portfolio you are severely limiting your gain potential as well as your losses.
    You could split your funds into 2 or even 3 separate groups.
    1. Speculative go getters--usually lower priced stocks with great potential, these could make you a bundle or go bust overnight, put your stops on these realizing one bad earnings or news report might cause an instant 50% drop.

    2. Mixture of proven growth stocks and young Turks- check charts for steady upward movement over a sustained period at least a year and as many as 10 years of performance.

    3. A more conservative approach-- stocks showing a track record of earnings gains along with steady dividend increases. Many have been mentioned on this site such as NJR, PM, MO. You can find the leaders in several sectors.

    Have separate portfolios or have one hybrid with a combo of the above. Use stops on the shakey ones and let the others run. Getting older and more conservative, I find myself gradually selling those less stable and moving the $$ into the dividend producers. Make sure to reinvest the divs. especially if in retirement accounts. By doing this for a number of years you can get to a point where you live off the divs. and rarely or never touch the core investments.

    --------------billy

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