Discussion of Karel's MrMarket approximation

[jjst34]

just found this post.. pretty interesting.. wondering, i saw that most of the screens from back in january came up w/ tasr,, anybody lucky enough to invest in that sucker back in Jan???

anyways,, i just attempted this for the first time.. here's what I came up w/.. let me konw what you think of the results.. ranked in order

NFI
GMR
GGB
LEND
TASR
BXG
AUO
AHH
GI
NIHD

[scifos]

looks similar to what I got about a week ago when I ran the approx. just out of curiousity

[Karel]

Hi jjst34,

those are the same I get now, and virtually in the same order, but with one glaring exception: I have NIHD first, you have it last. Its chart looks no worse than NFI's (your first), so perhaps you just didn't pick the adjusted close for NIHD. The recent 3:1 split would upset the R^2 calculation. So you are on the right track!

In case you want to invest money in these stocks: that is your very own decision, do your own due diligence, and diversify. Don't pick just one, but take your time and build a basket of these stocks. A pick just might backfire, or take an unconscionable long time to reacht +15%. Then you would need the action from the other stocks.

Regards,

Karel

[Dave]

just found this post.. pretty interesting.. wondering, i saw that most of the screens from back in january came up w/ tasr,, anybody lucky enough to invest in that sucker back in Jan???

anyways,, i just attempted this for the first time.. here's what I came up w/.. let me konw what you think of the results.. ranked in order

NFI
GMR
GGB
LEND
TASR
BXG
AUO
AHH
GI
NIHD

Out of those I have actually bought and sold 3 based on Karel's screens. NFI (bought 5/29/2003 and sold 6/5/2003), GI (bought 12/11/2003 and sold 1/8/2004), and LEND (back in early 2003). TASR was in my top 10 in early December, but I did not like its valuation and bought GI instead. So far I have had 7 solid winners using Karel's screens, with the longest hold being 4 months, and shortest being 6 days.

I am currently in GGI (courtesy of the HUGE one), and UTSI (an old HUGE pick that I just happen to like the current valuation on). I simply run the screens after I sell a stock, then I compare what I come up with to Ernie's latest pick, and see which I like more. So far it has worked amazingly well!

-Dave

[mike0050]

I am very new to Mr Market. Where is the spreadsheet that is repeatably referrred to? Where do I start in putting the model together? Is there a forum where it was explained?

Thank you
Mike Smith

[muffin]

I jason can you post the spread sheet that automates most of this process

[Karel]

I jason can you post the spread sheet that automates most of this process

Unfortunately, Jason is no longer a member. His spreadsheet broke when Yahoo Finance decided to do things slightly different. But doing things with my spreadsheet more or less by hand isn't so much trouble either.

Regards,

Karel