Lucas's Picks

[Lucavia123]

The best way to learn is to do. And so I am posting my picks in the hopes of gaining insight to the thoughts and trading styles of my fellow traders. I will post my picks and the reason and you criticize. I see nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Bought today:

OMX @ 9.71 - I see support at $9.50 and $9.20. I see more upside potential than down. Low PE. Stop set at $9.00.

[billyjoe]

Lucas, It looks as if you may have a winner at least in the short term. Notice how it has consolidated for about 6 weeks and during that time has tried to crack 10.25 three times.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=omx&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=5

You're going to need volume of about 2.3 million to push through on an up day. Don't know if the sector is strong enough and the earnings aren't spectacular. If I owned it and could snatch a fast 10% I'd sell.

------------------billy

[Lucavia123]

Lucas, It looks as if you may have a winner at least in the short term. Notice how it has consolidated for about 6 weeks and during that time has tried to crack 10.25 three times.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=omx&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=5

You're going to need volume of about 2.3 million to push through on an up day. Don't know if the sector is strong enough and the earnings aren't spectacular. If I owned it and could snatch a fast 10% I'd sell.

------------------billy

I agree. 5 - 10% is my goal with this one. Should of mentioned that in my original post. Thanks for the input.

[Deaddog]

I agree. 5 - 10% is my goal with this one. Should of mentioned that in my original post. Thanks for the input.

Just a suggestion;

Define your target like you do your stop. A 5 or 10% target is pretty vague.
On this trade one will give you a risk to reward of 1 to 0.68 and the other of 1 to 1.37.
This means you will have to have a winning percentage of 43.5% to break even at 1to 1.37and 61.2% at 1 to 0.68%.

Trading is a probabilities game. Only risk a small amount of your capital on any one trade and plan on making more on your winners than you lose with the ones that stop out.

Last year I had a realized gain of 7.5% risking less than 0.5% on any one trade. I lost 47% of the trades I took Won 34% and broke even on 19%.

It’s hard to maintain the discipline to take your stops, especially when they shoot right back up after you are out of the trade. But if you blow up your account with a big loss or tie up your capital waiting for a stock to recover you are out of the game.

[Lucavia123]

Sold OMX at 10.23 for a 4.2% gain. Probably sold prematurely but I felt this run was stalling out at the end of day. Might see it dip back down under 10 again tomorrow.

[Lucavia123]

Sold Short today SHB @ 23.77.

SBH failed to break above it;s 200 MA the previous session. Today showed continued weakness. I expect to see this down drop down to or below it's previous low at $22.50.

[Lucavia123]

Sold Short today SHB @ 23.77.

SBH failed to break above it;s 200 MA the previous session. Today showed continued weakness. I expect to see this down drop down to or below it's previous low at $22.50.

Covered at 26.50 today. 7% loss.

[Lucavia123]

Picked up SLCA yesturday on the breakout attempt.

Purchase @ $19.45.

[Lucavia123]

Bought ALKS today @$22.85. Stop set at $22.00. Goal is $23.99 or 5%. Earnings came out today. Bought as a pure momentum play.

[Lucavia123]

Bought ALKS today @$22.85. Stop set at $22.00. Goal is $23.99 or 5%. Earnings came out today. Bought as a pure momentum play.

Stopped out on opening gap down at $21.26.

[Lucavia123]

Picked up some TQNT at $5.36 on the nice price and volume pickup.