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When you roll the dice, you hope for “YO…. ELEVEN”….., when you pick stocks you hope for 11 in a row. When you are $$$MR. MARKET$$$, it is inevitable that you will pick 11 consecutive stock winners in a row. Why? Because I am HUGE that’s why.
Today I sold DORM at 41.10. That’s a 15.7% gain over my purchase price of 35.51. That’s a 15.7% gain in only 4 months. That’s an annualized gain of 47%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 only gained 11.1%...that’s not bad, but it’s certainly not HUGE!
Did you buy DORM? You? YOU?? YOU???....are you as HUGE as $$$MR. MARKET$$$...you? YOU?? YOU??
That makes 11 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses for I am the greatest stock picker on the planet.
If you are all happy with this stock pick, why don’t you parlay your good fortune and take a crack at some Super Bowl tickets. They are for a great cause…Dereks Dreams. www.dereksdreams.com
Go ahead…live a little.
A new pick is coming soon. Do you like me now?
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
================================================== ===================================
01-09-2013, 03:31 PM
mrmarket
Administrator
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,326
DORM ==> The Hello 2013 Winner!
(Full disclosure: I bought this stock before, on November 10, 2010. I liked it then, and I like it again now. I liked the write up then, and I like it again now.) Facts and figures have been updated to make this write up current:
When I dropped my kids off at college, I thought about how messy their dorm rooms would soon become:
However when I think about messy dorms, the only image that really comes to mind is radio DJ Dale Dorman from 68 WRKO:
I remember when he played “Start Me Up” by the Rolling Stones three times in a row because he liked the song. Boston has had its share of exciting rock ‘n’ roll disc jockeys, but Dale Dorman is its legendary master craftsman. With his lightening fast reflexes and a gift for genuinely clever patter, he did what few others have ever done — he remained a force and a positive influence on radio and music for 45 years. It all really began when he was starting out in Syracuse in 1964. He sent a tape to an up-and-coming programmer named Bill Drake at KYNO/Fresno who was gaining a national reputation for his unique style of broadcasting. Drake liked what he heard, hired Dale, and under his tutelage Dale became part of an approach that revolutionized popular music radio.
Dale was a master craftsman of rock ’n roll and Boston listeners were the beneficiaries. His local career included extended stays on WRKO (1968-197; WXKS-FM (1978-2003); and WODS (2003-200. In its day, WRKO was considered somewhat of a radio monster, boasting Dorman in morning drive. It was practically unthinkable back then that AM radio would be vulnerable. But as Dorman recalls, “We knew FM would take over, just because of the quality sound of the music. We had long discussions about that and also owned an automated station [WRKO-FM, later WROR] that played Oldies.” One day at a meeting, Dorman suggested that management flip WRKO-AM to WRKO-FM and let WRKO-AM do Talk. “The music sounded great in stereo on FM,” he says.
The rest is history.
History indeed. WRKO wanted to make money. So does $$$MR. MARKET$$$. Today I bought DORM at 35.51. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 41.03. Here’s why I like DORM:
You got to love the chart. The stock is up 92% off of its 52 week low AND its PE is still only 18. It’s a growth stock. It’s a value stock. It’s both. It’s a steal. What a deal. Actually I think the most recent sell off from 37.91 let me pick up some of this baby at a bargain. For once my market entry might actually be somewhat fortuitous.
Dorman Products, Inc. supplies automotive replacement parts, fasteners, and service line products primarily for the automotive aftermarket. The company offers approximately 128,000 products comprising original equipment dealer parts, which include intake manifolds, exhaust manifolds, oil cooler lines, window regulators, radiator fan assemblies, power steering pulleys, and harmonic balancers; and replacement parts, such as window handles and switches, door hardware, interior trim parts, headlamp aiming screws and retainer rings, radiator parts, battery hold-down bolts and repair kits, valve train parts, and power steering filler caps. It also provides application specific and general automotive hardware, such as body hardware, general automotive fasteners, oil drain plugs, and wheel hardware; a selection of electrical connectors, wires, tools, testers, and accessories; and a line of home hardware and home organization products designed for retail merchandisers. In addition, the company offers a brake and clutch program; remanufactured automotive replacement parts, such as transfer case modules and instrument clusters; and heavy duty aftermarket parts for class 4-8 heavy vehicles, including coolant tubes, door handles and other body parts, fluid reservoirs, headlights and lighting, hood components, window regulators, and wiper transmissions. It sells its products under the OE Solutions, HELP!, AutoGrade, FirstStop, Conduct-Tite!, Pik-A-Nut, and HD Solutions brand names through automotive aftermarket retailers; national, regional, and local warehouse distributors; specialty markets; and salvage yards in the United States, Mexico, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Canada. The company, formerly known as R&B, Inc., was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Colmar, Pennsylvania.
What’s in the news today? A steadily improving economy and strong December sales lifted the American auto industry to its best performance in five years in 2012, especially for Volkswagen and Japanese-brand vehicles, and experts say this year should be even better. Carmakers last Thursday announced their final figures, which totaled 14.5 million — 13 percent better than 2011. More than three years after the federal government's $62 billion auto-industry bailout, Americans had plenty of incentive to buy new cars and trucks in the year just ended. Unemployment eased. Home sales and prices rose. And the average age of a car topped 11 years in the U.S., a record that spurred people to trade in old vehicles. Banks made that easier by offering low interest rates and greater access to loans, even for buyers with lousy credit.
"The U.S. light vehicle sales market continues to be a bright spot in the tremulous global environment," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for LMC Automotive, a Detroit-area industry forecasting firm.
With the auto sales doing so well, you gotta believe that auto part makers will be spanking too since its their junk that is flying off of the shelves. Dorman’s revenues are up over 20% in its most recent 3rd quarter earnings report last month. Earnings per share were 54 cents compared to the consensus of 48 cents. That’s 32% better than last year. 20% of their sales are from products introduced in last two years.
The company plans on pumping out a lot of new products for car buyers to spend quatloops on so 2013 looks robust. The company is betting on it as it is putting capital into expanding its distribution system. The Return on Equity is up around 19%, and return on assets are around 16%. This really beats your savings account.
Dorman has grown its revenue each and every year since 2002:
2002 $215 MM
2003 $222 MM
2004 $250 MM
2005 $278 MM
2006 $296 MM
2007 $328 MM
2008 $342 MM
2009 $377 MM
2010 $456 MM
2011 $529 MM
That’s a progression I can live with. Dorman has paid off all of its long term debt. DORM generates more sales from the use of its assets than nearly any other company in the Auto Parts & Equipment group. During FY 2011, DORM spent $18 MM on CAPEX. This is a steady increase in spending over the last 4 years which is clearly a bullish sign from management.
ANAL-ysts predict $2.27/share on revenues of $682 MM for 2013. That’s not quite right. They will actually pop up to $752 MM of revenues in 2013 which will spin off $2.57 per share. If you take these earnings, and multiply them by the still very modest PE of 18, that drives the share price to: $2.57 x 18 = $46.26. That’s way over my sell target. Yep..it will be yet another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner.
You can get that from the horse’s mouth himself:
"Our growing pipeline of new and recently-introduced new products continues to fuel our revenue growth. We have introduced nearly 2,500 new parts in 2012, of which over 630 of these were formerly dealer-only parts. We appreciate the continued acceptance of these new products by our customers and end users, and look forward to creating even more new revenue opportunities in the future," said Mr. Steven Berman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Additionally, we are gaining traction in our Dorman HD Solutions™ initiative launched in January, with over 200 formerly dealer-only parts available for immediate shipment to customers. Feedback from customers and end users has been positive. We remain committed to driving growth in this channel as well."
So..I am planning on knocking one out of the park with Dorman, and I’ll be able to give my fat doorman a fat New Years tip. Happy New Year to all!! If you make money on this pick, hopefully you’ll take the time to give back to those in need. Many in New Jersey were affected by Hurricane Sandy. Just because it’s not in the news anymore doesn’t mean that they aren’t still hurting. Remember, nobody wins unless everybody wins.
I am HUGE!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.
- $$$MR. MARKET$$$
Last edited by mrmarket; 01-27-2013 at 08:55 PM.
Today I sold DORM at 41.10. That’s a 15.7% gain over my purchase price of 35.51. That’s a 15.7% gain in only 4 months. That’s an annualized gain of 47%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 only gained 11.1%...that’s not bad, but it’s certainly not HUGE!
Did you buy DORM? You? YOU?? YOU???....are you as HUGE as $$$MR. MARKET$$$...you? YOU?? YOU??
That makes 11 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses for I am the greatest stock picker on the planet.
If you are all happy with this stock pick, why don’t you parlay your good fortune and take a crack at some Super Bowl tickets. They are for a great cause…Dereks Dreams. www.dereksdreams.com
Go ahead…live a little.
A new pick is coming soon. Do you like me now?
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
================================================== ===================================
01-09-2013, 03:31 PM
mrmarket
Administrator
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 4,326
DORM ==> The Hello 2013 Winner!
(Full disclosure: I bought this stock before, on November 10, 2010. I liked it then, and I like it again now. I liked the write up then, and I like it again now.) Facts and figures have been updated to make this write up current:
When I dropped my kids off at college, I thought about how messy their dorm rooms would soon become:
However when I think about messy dorms, the only image that really comes to mind is radio DJ Dale Dorman from 68 WRKO:
I remember when he played “Start Me Up” by the Rolling Stones three times in a row because he liked the song. Boston has had its share of exciting rock ‘n’ roll disc jockeys, but Dale Dorman is its legendary master craftsman. With his lightening fast reflexes and a gift for genuinely clever patter, he did what few others have ever done — he remained a force and a positive influence on radio and music for 45 years. It all really began when he was starting out in Syracuse in 1964. He sent a tape to an up-and-coming programmer named Bill Drake at KYNO/Fresno who was gaining a national reputation for his unique style of broadcasting. Drake liked what he heard, hired Dale, and under his tutelage Dale became part of an approach that revolutionized popular music radio.
Dale was a master craftsman of rock ’n roll and Boston listeners were the beneficiaries. His local career included extended stays on WRKO (1968-197; WXKS-FM (1978-2003); and WODS (2003-200. In its day, WRKO was considered somewhat of a radio monster, boasting Dorman in morning drive. It was practically unthinkable back then that AM radio would be vulnerable. But as Dorman recalls, “We knew FM would take over, just because of the quality sound of the music. We had long discussions about that and also owned an automated station [WRKO-FM, later WROR] that played Oldies.” One day at a meeting, Dorman suggested that management flip WRKO-AM to WRKO-FM and let WRKO-AM do Talk. “The music sounded great in stereo on FM,” he says.
The rest is history.
History indeed. WRKO wanted to make money. So does $$$MR. MARKET$$$. Today I bought DORM at 35.51. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 41.03. Here’s why I like DORM:
You got to love the chart. The stock is up 92% off of its 52 week low AND its PE is still only 18. It’s a growth stock. It’s a value stock. It’s both. It’s a steal. What a deal. Actually I think the most recent sell off from 37.91 let me pick up some of this baby at a bargain. For once my market entry might actually be somewhat fortuitous.
Dorman Products, Inc. supplies automotive replacement parts, fasteners, and service line products primarily for the automotive aftermarket. The company offers approximately 128,000 products comprising original equipment dealer parts, which include intake manifolds, exhaust manifolds, oil cooler lines, window regulators, radiator fan assemblies, power steering pulleys, and harmonic balancers; and replacement parts, such as window handles and switches, door hardware, interior trim parts, headlamp aiming screws and retainer rings, radiator parts, battery hold-down bolts and repair kits, valve train parts, and power steering filler caps. It also provides application specific and general automotive hardware, such as body hardware, general automotive fasteners, oil drain plugs, and wheel hardware; a selection of electrical connectors, wires, tools, testers, and accessories; and a line of home hardware and home organization products designed for retail merchandisers. In addition, the company offers a brake and clutch program; remanufactured automotive replacement parts, such as transfer case modules and instrument clusters; and heavy duty aftermarket parts for class 4-8 heavy vehicles, including coolant tubes, door handles and other body parts, fluid reservoirs, headlights and lighting, hood components, window regulators, and wiper transmissions. It sells its products under the OE Solutions, HELP!, AutoGrade, FirstStop, Conduct-Tite!, Pik-A-Nut, and HD Solutions brand names through automotive aftermarket retailers; national, regional, and local warehouse distributors; specialty markets; and salvage yards in the United States, Mexico, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Canada. The company, formerly known as R&B, Inc., was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Colmar, Pennsylvania.
What’s in the news today? A steadily improving economy and strong December sales lifted the American auto industry to its best performance in five years in 2012, especially for Volkswagen and Japanese-brand vehicles, and experts say this year should be even better. Carmakers last Thursday announced their final figures, which totaled 14.5 million — 13 percent better than 2011. More than three years after the federal government's $62 billion auto-industry bailout, Americans had plenty of incentive to buy new cars and trucks in the year just ended. Unemployment eased. Home sales and prices rose. And the average age of a car topped 11 years in the U.S., a record that spurred people to trade in old vehicles. Banks made that easier by offering low interest rates and greater access to loans, even for buyers with lousy credit.
"The U.S. light vehicle sales market continues to be a bright spot in the tremulous global environment," said Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for LMC Automotive, a Detroit-area industry forecasting firm.
With the auto sales doing so well, you gotta believe that auto part makers will be spanking too since its their junk that is flying off of the shelves. Dorman’s revenues are up over 20% in its most recent 3rd quarter earnings report last month. Earnings per share were 54 cents compared to the consensus of 48 cents. That’s 32% better than last year. 20% of their sales are from products introduced in last two years.
The company plans on pumping out a lot of new products for car buyers to spend quatloops on so 2013 looks robust. The company is betting on it as it is putting capital into expanding its distribution system. The Return on Equity is up around 19%, and return on assets are around 16%. This really beats your savings account.
Dorman has grown its revenue each and every year since 2002:
2002 $215 MM
2003 $222 MM
2004 $250 MM
2005 $278 MM
2006 $296 MM
2007 $328 MM
2008 $342 MM
2009 $377 MM
2010 $456 MM
2011 $529 MM
That’s a progression I can live with. Dorman has paid off all of its long term debt. DORM generates more sales from the use of its assets than nearly any other company in the Auto Parts & Equipment group. During FY 2011, DORM spent $18 MM on CAPEX. This is a steady increase in spending over the last 4 years which is clearly a bullish sign from management.
ANAL-ysts predict $2.27/share on revenues of $682 MM for 2013. That’s not quite right. They will actually pop up to $752 MM of revenues in 2013 which will spin off $2.57 per share. If you take these earnings, and multiply them by the still very modest PE of 18, that drives the share price to: $2.57 x 18 = $46.26. That’s way over my sell target. Yep..it will be yet another $$$MR. MARKET$$$ winner.
You can get that from the horse’s mouth himself:
"Our growing pipeline of new and recently-introduced new products continues to fuel our revenue growth. We have introduced nearly 2,500 new parts in 2012, of which over 630 of these were formerly dealer-only parts. We appreciate the continued acceptance of these new products by our customers and end users, and look forward to creating even more new revenue opportunities in the future," said Mr. Steven Berman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Additionally, we are gaining traction in our Dorman HD Solutions™ initiative launched in January, with over 200 formerly dealer-only parts available for immediate shipment to customers. Feedback from customers and end users has been positive. We remain committed to driving growth in this channel as well."
So..I am planning on knocking one out of the park with Dorman, and I’ll be able to give my fat doorman a fat New Years tip. Happy New Year to all!! If you make money on this pick, hopefully you’ll take the time to give back to those in need. Many in New Jersey were affected by Hurricane Sandy. Just because it’s not in the news anymore doesn’t mean that they aren’t still hurting. Remember, nobody wins unless everybody wins.
I am HUGE!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.
- $$$MR. MARKET$$$
Last edited by mrmarket; 01-27-2013 at 08:55 PM.
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