HAR ==> The MLK day winner

[casinoboy3]

What's going on [besides the obvious] ??

[scottieahmed]

about the only negative news that i can find for HAR is that an analyst alert saying that the P/E to growth ratio suggested that the stock might have been overvalued.

Pretty big drop today...

[mrmarket]

earnings earnings earnings

[stenzrob]

This selloff in HAR is really messing up the r^2, man.

Disclaimer: I do not own HAR. Never did, probably never will.

January 28
"Harman International expects second half 2004 revenue growth of 12% to 15%".

At a trailing PE of still almost 40, which is now over twice the estimated revenue growth, and the debt/equity ratio well above 0.7, I'm afraid I'd have to (respectfully) call this a mistake. I'd rather buy their stuff than their stock.

I have every confidence that a 15% gain will be realized someday, but in the meantime, this is more likely to go to $60 or below than back to $80 or above, IMHO.

This stock was bought on the basis of a reasonable forward PE, which was based on estimates now being revised downwards, and a very high r^2. As the selloff continues, the high r^2 will also soon be history.

If the reasons for buying are no longer true, there are no reasons for holding. Anyway, that's the way I see it. Good luck with it, big guy.

[mrmarket]

This selloff in HAR is really messing up the r^2, man.

Disclaimer: I do not own HAR. Never did, probably never will.

January 28
"Harman International expects second half 2004 revenue growth of 12% to 15%".

At a trailing PE of still almost 40, which is now over twice the estimated revenue growth, and the debt/equity ratio well above 0.7, I'm afraid I'd have to (respectfully) call this a mistake. I'd rather buy their stuff than their stock.

I have every confidence that a 15% gain will be realized someday, but in the meantime, this is more likely to go to $60 or below than back to $80 or above, IMHO.

This stock was bought on the basis of a reasonable forward PE, which was based on estimates now being revised downwards, and a very high r^2. As the selloff continues, the high r^2 will also soon be history.

If the reasons for buying are no longer true, there are no reasons for holding. Anyway, that's the way I see it. Good luck with it, big guy.

Thanks..but HAR management are big time sandbaggers. Watch when they blast their numbers again. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.

[mr.yuk]

seems to be bouncing back a bit? OR was today a sucker's rally?

[mrmarket]

For what it's worth:
Business Week Article 2/20/04

What's Driving Harman's Success
Innovative technology at lower prices is fueling demand for its audio and infotainment systems, especially for cars

Many of the comforts of the Information Age home have found their way into the automobile. Major carmakers now offer "infotainment" systems in a growing number of models that include functions such as audio and video entertainment, voice-activated phones, climate control, and Internet access, along with auto-specific features like navigation and diagnostics (see BW Online Special Report, 09/04/03, "High-Tech Cars"). Advertisement

And that's a key reason we at Standard & Poor's Equity Research like Harman Intl. (HAR; recent price, $74). We think it has a strong competitive position in what we consider an underpenetrated market: supplying these high-end systems to carmakers. We're attracted by its high revenue visibility because Harman's infotainment gadgets are already scheduled for installation in several models over the next few years.

WELL-KNOWN BRANDS. In addition, we believe the shares are undervalued, based on our discounted cash-flow and historical price-to-earnings analyses. The stock carries S&P's highest investment recommendation of 5 STARS, or buy.

For more than 50 years, Harman and its predecessors have created loudspeakers and electronic audio products. Its Consumer Systems Group (83% of sales in the quarter ended December 31, 2003) designs, manufactures, and markets audio and electronic systems for vehicle, home, video, and computer applications. Its products are sold worldwide under brand names including Harman/Kardon, Becker, JBL, Infinity, Revel, Lexicon, and Mark Levinson.

Harman's Professional Group (17%) designs, makes, and markets loudspeakers and electronics used by audio professionals in concert halls, stadiums, airports, and other buildings, as well as for recording, broadcast, cinema, and music-reproduction applications. Professional products are sold worldwide under brand names including JBL, AKG, Crown, Studer, Soundcraft, Lexicon, Digitech, and dbx.

In fiscal 2003 (ended June), approximately 62% of sales were to automotive customers, with DaimlerChrysler (DCX ) accounting for 26% and BMW 10% of total net sales.

TECHNICAL EDGE. In our view, Harman's key competitive strengths include its portfolio of well-recognized brands, as well as its technology and market-share leadership in its key product categories. We believe it enjoys a significant first-mover advantage in creating a digitally integrated infotainment system -- built on a single proprietary technology platform -- for cars.

In addition, we're encouraged by Harman's commitment to research and development. We believe that planned outlays in the next few years should help bolster Harman's already strong technical expertise in designing and integrating acoustics, navigation, speech recognition, and user interfaces into unique infotainment systems built for specific car models.

Management recently stated that with increasing levels of integration, Harman can greatly expand the functionality of its infotainment systems at no increase in cost. In addition, Harman said it has the capability to reduce the cost of the present set of features it offers by as much as 30% to 40% over the next 24 months. We believe these capabilities will give Harman significant leverage in contract negotiations with existing and potential original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers.

[Jaws57]

Time to sell?

Beat by 6cents. Stock Way down. I am going to guess since they didnt raise guidance, the stock is suffering for it. I almost took my profit yesterday, but held out for a good report. I am hoping that this is a overreaction and the price will bounce higher near the close or Thursday. I bought at 78.40 so it would a small but profitable trade. Any ideas?

My strategy is to hold 6-7 MrM picks. I have 6 now and HAR is the oldest holding. I am up 15% this year so far on the MrMarket part of my portfolio.

My other current MM stocks are SSNC(should have sold this one),OFG,SPF,SAFM,AACE.

I eagerly wait for the next pick.
Thanks MrMarket$$$$$$$$$

Jaws57

[stockmarketwizard]

Another example of how using stops to protect profits could have prevented flushing a lot of profit right down the toilet.

[Jaws57]

stop loss orders

Seems like I always get screwed on the stop loss orders. My last stop was on ELN, I put the stop at 7.85, the freakin low for the day was 7.85 to the penny. I only lost 8% or so but not only did it recover that day, but look where it is now.

I like using the sell orders on profit targets. Ever since the SSNC miss, I have sell orders on all the MM stocks. Unless I am at home to play with it.

Jaws57

[mrmarket]

Another example of how using stops to protect profits could have prevented flushing a lot of profit right down the toilet.

I'm holding HAR. It will reach my target. Profits will be in my pocket, not the toilet. There is no reason to believe it will not continue to have spectacular earnings, especially given the sizzling economic prospects.

[stockmarketwizard]

It is true. You can get screwed on stop orders. But you can get even a bigger screwjob trying to trade without stop orders.

Don't get married to stocks!! Remember, you can always re-enter the trade.

[Karel]

Nice day for HAR

[jiesen]

SOLD! for 89

got out today with my 15%. I'm happy, and I hope you get at least another buck or two for it tomorrow.

Thanks, $$MM, for this excellent pick. You are HUGE!

[Karel]

Yesss! Time for the Happy Snoopy dance again!

$$$Mr. Market$$$ is HUGE