Third party research subscription

[Duniyo]

Duniyo, Here's a good long termer : Nate Pile, of Nate's Notes. I first heard of him through Hulberts. He might bore you to death. He'll have 5 stocks and hold them each for 5 -10 years, but he's good. I've been holding one of his, HQL, for several years and am up 275% in one account. I've got it in at least 3 different retirement funds.


--------------------billy

unfortunately he has no trial period.

[billyjoe]

Duniyo, Here's a good long termer : Nate Pile, of Nate's Notes. I first heard of him through Hulberts. He might bore you to death. He'll have 5 stocks and hold them each for 5 -10 years, but he's good. I've been holding one of his, HQL, for several years and am up 275% in one account. I've got it in at least 3 different retirement funds.


--------------------billy

[Duniyo]

In the last 5 weeks I've had 5 Zacks recommendations that missed big. All the stocks tanked 10%-20%.

ELY 1/31 AFFX 2/11 RGR 2/26 FIX 3/3 HCI 3/4 I question their sources, unless I just have extreme bad luck. These were all strong #1 picks.

-------------------billy

Are there any research companies that focus on long-term investing? Zacks is under pressure to meet daily "quota".

[riverbabe]

In the last 5 weeks I've had 5 Zacks recommendations that missed big. All the stocks tanked 10%-20%.

ELY 1/31 AFFX 2/11 RGR 2/26 FIX 3/3 HCI 3/4 I question their sources, unless I just have extreme bad luck. These were all strong #1 picks.

-------------------billy

Most of my buys have been 2's or 3's. So maybe it's just my gut and I've been lucky. BCRX has been downgraded to a 4, so out it goes today. Edit: Just got 7.1% at market. Also sold HZNP at market for 13.23% just now because my gut said so and I don't oink. And AMBA for 15.15%. "I can always get in again...". I'm tired of watching my profits melt away.

[billyjoe]

In the last 5 weeks I've had 5 Zacks recommendations that missed big. All the stocks tanked 10%-20%.

ELY 1/31 AFFX 2/11 RGR 2/26 FIX 3/3 HCI 3/4 I question their sources, unless I just have extreme bad luck. These were all strong #1 picks.

-------------------billy

[riverbabe]

I did my spreadsheet and, after taking over $6K off the table, have over $6K sitting there again! Joined Ultimate at the sale price!

Current value of Zachs recommendations as of right now:
ALNY - -7.45%
AMBA - +14.87%
BCRX - +6.20%
BEAT - +0.96%
CNX - +6.16%
CTCT - +3.64%
DATA - -3.97%
HZNP - +10.39%
JAZZ - +4.26%
RTRX - +24.32%

[riverbabe]

I sure will! I will start the free trial sometime late March or early April as I am busy with other commitments until then.

I did my spreadsheet and, after taking over $6K off the table, have over $6K sitting there again! Joined Ultimate at the sale price!

[Duniyo]

I sure will! I will start the free trial sometime late March or early April as I am busy with other commitments until then.

[sixfeetfour]

Duniyo -
Seems like a pretty good plan. If you perform this, you ought to create a thread about it within this forum.
Thanks

[Duniyo]

I am planning to try subscribe Zacks free trial and use my virtual account to trade everyone of their picks

[Louetta]

Hmm. I've been with Mr. Market since 2003, when I was 18. Eleven years. Next to him I guess I've spent about five years total with IBD in several iterations. Not for specific recommendations but more for data. Tried several others (like Gorilla, Value Line, etc.) but never more than a few months. As far as Mr. Market is concerned, I pay as much attention to some of the other regulars as to Ernie's stuff. That makes sense to me. Methinks one has to draw on more than one source over time and use what works at a particular time.

[tiedyed1]

I was an early paid subscriber to Gorilla Trades and as such they kept my subscription renewals very low, which is why I am still a subscriber. They do indeed provide me many picks which have more than paid for my subscriptions, however, like in each service, it took me a long time to feel my way through what works best for me, while also ignoring all the hype of stats they have overall.

RGR was a pick to watch at gorillatrades but never confirmed, as their criteria contains a trigger and then a confirmation of the price combined with volume.
I still like RGR and bought it a couple of weeks ago and now feeling some pain today, but not one I am worried about by any means. (Admittedly, the ANIK happy dance today eases the RGR pain.)

While I stress the fundamentals, I also have a stock broker neighbor who is a chart guy. He is more of a trader and makes his trades based on what the charts tell him. I laugh when he throws me a symbol and I ask him what the company does and he has no clue; but he makes a very good living doing what he does too.

Back to these paid services: unlike Mr. Market sharing with us his logic from time to time, these paid services must feel like they have an obligation which may cause them to make suggestions as their subscribers are counting on them. Gorilla has a daily e-mail after hours and a mid-day market status (just reviewing what is going on..no mid-day symbols). At times I have seen a 'gorillatrades effect' in the morning as people pile onto a symbol, but then again, without the volume confirmation of that day this tends to be a much higher risk. But also at times I have jumped on a purchase between 6-8 pm once the e-mail goes out if I am familiar with the symbol, or want to add to an existing position I am very familiar with. (i.e. Monday night I doubled down on PHM and it is up 5% since then.)

Consistent with billy's comment, overall for me, nothing has been as consistent as watching Mr. Market's picks. Even the ones I have been or are down on do not worry me, which is something i cannot say the same of on other picks I choose to buy. Having these services, as well as the opinions of others I read (and I read a lot), is very helpful and provides me the peace of mind that i am making sound decisions. When I make mistakes, which I regularly do, the hardest discipline for me is to not repeat them.

-Adam
Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

[billyjoe]

sixfeet, I have a year's subscription for the research, access to the #1 stocks along with some screening. I had a 30 day trial twice, one just ending. I am suspect about some of their #1 ratings. If they are so selective how can they crank out the same number of #1's each day. You'd think there would be days with no new picks and others with a lot of picks. Right now I've got 8 sales for gains in 2014 and 4 for losses. 3 of the 4 were Zacks picks that were #1 and they said would beat estimates. They all came in below estimates and tanked. I lost about $500 on each. Another thing is that their advantage is entirely based upon picking stocks that will beat estimates. They usually are not in agreement with Vectorvest, but VV does not take future earnings into consideration, just past performance. They assume in most cases past performance or trend will continue. They have graphs on each stock that shows if earnings and sales are declining or accelerating. Good observation on RGR still being rated #1. I've seen this before. You'd think they would immediately drop a stock that misses on earnings. They might lower the rating next week. That's not good if you're scanning for #1's to buy. All 3 of my losers were from the trial. Can't remember which service. They have so many. Follow the Money, Breakout Growth, Home Run Investor etc. Many claim yearly returns of 60% or better. My trial was Ultimate. They claim to have better performance than the #1's alone (+26%) but I can't lose $500 several times in a row to find out. They will e-mail you picks everyday, probably over 20 each week. You just have to sort them out. They do bring stocks to your attention that you might not otherwise consider. Picking the winners is still a problem. I've still not found anyone that can match Mr.Market's record.

----------------billy

[sixfeetfour]

River had good luck with her trial at Zacks but I've lost on 3 in a row of their picks. All missed earnings: EYL , AFFX, and a few minutes ago RGR.

I was looking at getting into RGR on Monday as well, but did not.
Billy - I am curious if your recent following of the Zack picks you mentioned is based on a current subscription, or a trial. Regardless would you mind stating if the trial/subscription is for the premium or ultimate, or some other service?
I signed up for their 30 days free for premium and though it gives guidance to their #1 stocks I find some of them suspect, like RGR was rated a strong buy on Jan 25th with a price of 73.59, today the price is 61.35 and it is still listed as a strong buy. I understand any subscription can't pick all winners. However, I wonder if you pay for the more advanced subscription, the ultimate or follow the money, if their results are better as a whole?
MrM is likely laughing at this thread!
Thanks!!!

[billyjoe]

River had good luck with her trial at Zacks but I've lost on 3 in a row of their picks. All missed earnings: EYL , AFFX, and a few minutes ago RGR.

----------------------billy