Top Groups Top 10 Portfolio

[billyjoe]

I've created a portfolio based on the top 10% of rated industry groups as of Jan 16, 2004. From these 20 groups, the top 5 in each group give us a potential of 100 stocks which we will reduce to 10 for the portfolio. The stocks must have positive 3 year sales and earnings growth. Earnings per share and relative strength of 75 or better. Starting price between 15 and 40. Overall IBD rating will be in the top 3% of all stocks (97 or greater). Most information obtained from IBD and IBD checkup online. After 6 weeks we will start a new top 10 if this portfolio shows promise.
Group
Rank Stock 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10 2/17 2/24 3/2
2 ACO 19.86 21.74

3 SGMA 28.68 30.48

3 NTE 30.40 31.71

5 GGI 24.20 23.59

9 SRZ 39.00 42.80

11 AMX 31.52 33.48

15 GLNG 17.00 17.00

15 TNP 21.80 26.19

17 AVD 38.96 45.49

18 IIVI 28.69 26.99

* I don't own any of these stocks as of 1/27/04

First week's result impressive 7 advance 2 decline 1 unchanged

[billyjoe]

TOP GROUP TOP 10

Top Group Top 10
Group Rank 1/20 1/27 2/3
2 ACO 19.86 21.74 18.98
3 SGMA 28.68 30.48 24.70
3 NTE 30.40 31.71 29.70
5 GGI 24.20 23.59 23.30
9 SRZ 39.00 42.80 40.19
11 AMX 31.52 33.48 32.25
15 GLNG 17.00 17.00 15.29
15 TNP 21.80 26.19 25.14
17 AVD 38.96 45.49 38.35
18 IIVI 28.69 26.99 25.25

Top group top 10 portfolio totally tanked last week. All 10 were losers. Can you pick 10 losers? Lowlights of the week were SGMA down 19% for the week and the volatile AVD down 16% after a gain of 17% last week. Glad I don't own it. I'm sure IBD in it's hindsight has lowered the ratings of these stocks by now, but we'll follow them for at least two more weeks. "When they raid the joint, they take them all." Well they took them all last week. -billyjoe

[ParkTwain]

market blow-off of Jan 16 was a major near-term event

You are seeing widespread corrections now. Old data like you see in IBD isn't going to help you necessarily in the next leg the market makes. YOu need to be looking at the specific stocks with strength and where the earnings results are coming in. There was a lot of speculation that finally blew off on Jan 16.

[billyjoe]

Top Group Top 10

Park Twain, I appreciate your comments, but the problem seems to be the inability to determine the effect earnings have on stock movement. Within the last ten days two of my stocks reported earnings. I purposely waited until earnings disclosure day to decide whether to hold or sell. Both stocks reported record earnings with about a 5% surprise. I was anticipating good news since trading was drying up and there was little or no insider trading for months. The end result, one stock tanked , the other rose about 3%. When stocks go down on good news it drives me crazy. billyjoe

[ParkTwain]

overall market is a factor

The overall market situation is of course a factor, even for a stock reporting good results. If the market uses any excuse to go down, rather to go up, you are seeing a weaker environment for stocks that you must factor into your near-term decisions depending on your personal tolerance for risk. Perhaps the Cisco results that were announced tonight will relieve some of the "weight" that is pressing down the market at the moment.

[billyjoe]

Top Group Top 10 Portfolio

group
strength 1/20 1/27 2/3 2/10
change
2-6 ACO 19.86 21.74 18.98 18.10

3-16 SGMA 28.68 30.48 24.70 23.33

3-16 NTE 30.40 31.71 29.70 31.02

5-3 GGI 24.20 23.59 23.30 22.13

9-23 SRZ 39.00 42.80 40.19 40.40

11-5 AMX 31.52 33.48 32.25 33.33

15-9 GLNG 17.00 17.00 15.29 16.16

15-9 TNP 21.80 26.19 25.14 25.38

17-48 AVD 38.96 45.49 38.35 37.80

18-24 IIVI 28.69 26.99 25.25 25.51

First week up 6.9%
2nd week dn 9.0%
3rd week unchanged 6 advanced 4 declined
Notice change in group strength column 1 billyjoe