Has Mr.Market found the Holy Grail of Stock Picking Methods?

[billyjoe]

Just checked Mr.Market's record over the last 32.5 months. He has picked 35 winners of 15% or more plus has another 5 open positions holding gains with only 6 positions showing a loss. 40/46 represents an 87% success rate. He's been open with his picks with the results for all to see. We see others advertise their results after the fact but not in real time. Can you find proof of anyone beating an 87% success rate? Post here if you can.

----------------------billy

[Phoenix7]

Just checked Mr.Market's record over the last 32.5 months. He has picked 35 winners of 15% or more plus has another 5 open positions holding gains with only 6 positions showing a loss. 40/46 represents an 87% success rate. He's been open with his picks with the results for all to see. We see others advertise their results after the fact but not in real time. Can you find proof of anyone beating an 87% success rate? Post here if you can.

----------------------billy

No doubt Mr Market's formula for success has proven itself!

[Phoenix7]

Folks Napolean Hill advocated working together in groups of people with like minds, and that will always produce superior results. I believe that!

[mrmarket]

Just checked Mr.Market's record over the last 32.5 months. He has picked 35 winners of 15% or more plus has another 5 open positions holding gains with only 6 positions showing a loss. 40/46 represents an 87% success rate. He's been open with his picks with the results for all to see. We see others advertise their results after the fact but not in real time. Can you find proof of anyone beating an 87% success rate? Post here if you can.

----------------------billy

Thanks for the recap. I really believe that the psychology of the market tends to undervalue certain stocks trading at their highs...maybe it's because people think it's too late to buy them, which means that they will always be undervalued IF the fundamentals support it.

That's been my method...pretty simple if you ask me.

[billyjoe]

People that don't have a lot of trading experience often think it's crazy to buy stocks at or near highs.

----------------billy

[Louetta]

Thanks for the recap. I really believe that the psychology of the market tends to undervalue certain stocks trading at their highs...maybe it's because people think it's too late to buy them, which means that they will always be undervalued IF the fundamentals support it.

That's been my method...pretty simple if you ask me.

Methinks you are misinterpreting the results, Large Person.

Recently Billyjoe did an analysis of the 4 out of 5 stocks you rejected when choosing two recent picks. Now that is kind of a small sample but his analysis showed your final pick in each case performed significantly better than the four rejects.

That indicates to me that it is you choosing the correct stock that makes the difference. If it were just a matter of identifying stocks with momentum at their highs, which is what your screens do, then all five stocks should do pretty well. But they did not in the cases he studied. Inn fact a couple did poorly.

[mrmarket]

Methinks you are misinterpreting the results, Large Person.

Recently Billyjoe did an analysis of the 4 out of 5 stocks you rejected when choosing two recent picks. Now that is kind of a small sample but his analysis showed your final pick in each case performed significantly better than the four rejects.

That indicates to me that it is you choosing the correct stock that makes the difference. If it were just a matter of identifying stocks with momentum at their highs, which is what your screens do, then all five stocks should do pretty well. But they did not in the cases he studied. Inn fact a couple did poorly.

I guess it's easier to choose one out of five than it is to choose one out of 100,000

[billyjoe]

What number would represent the holy grail? Not 100%, that isn't possible. I've known of picking methods that were 75% correct in bull markets but tanked at the first sign of a bear, never lasting 32 months. We've had several market downtrends over that time period.

--------------------billy

[Louetta]

I guess it's easier to choose one out of five than it is to choose one out of 100,000

You state the obvious with SUCH clarity.

[mimo_100]

Years ago I did a study on MrMarkets picks. I found that a better than 50% of the time the stock price dropped by an average of 8% before turning around and taking off. I'l see if I can dredge up the details and if so I will post it here.


I would be curious to see his exit strategy when the position is losing, i.e., currently there are two positions that are at a 20% loss or more. I know every now and then he "cleans house", perhaps when he needs the tax losses. Maybe a good time to sell would be when the loss hits 15%. By selling profitable positions at 15% and letting the losses run, one could imagine a scenario where the losses may overtake the gains.

[billyjoe]

Mimo, I believe in letting my winners run. My retirement accounts hit new all time highs today with 2 stocks having lost more than 20% but 11 with gains from 22% to 225%. Starting last May have had 23 days of record highs. I don't trade much in these accounts. In Mrs. billy's account I trade often and haven't hit a new high since last Nov. 20th. No new money added.

------------------billy

[mimo_100]

Mimo, I believe in letting my winners run. My retirement accounts hit new all time highs today with 2 stocks having lost more than 20% but 11 with gains from 22% to 225%. Starting last May have had 23 days of record highs. I don't trade much in these accounts. In Mrs. billy's account I trade often and haven't hit a new high since last Nov. 20th. No new money added.

------------------billy

billy,

Exactly my point. MrMarket does not intend on keeping positions indefinitely. I let my winners run too. Plus I normally add to them every 5%. But how long do you let your losses run? If you always buy "quality" stocks, theoretically you should be able to minimize those losses. I believe in cutting my losses, and letting my winners run, at least until some predetermined exit point.