THRM ==> The Somerville Winner

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    THRM ==> The Somerville Winner

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

    One thing about living and working in Houston is that the place is hot as balls. Take the worst hot and humid day in New York City and then deliver it 100 times, and that’s what you go through in Houston every day, every summer. As if this isn’t bad enough, you have to deal with the traffic. Houston is a city of 3 million people with a highway system designed to handle 1 million people. So you sit in traffic a lot. Not only do you sit in traffic but it is all hot when you sit in the traffic.

    Do you know what happens when you sit in traffic and it’s all hot in a hot car? You sweat. The worst part about sweating is when your underwear gets all soaking wet and it sticks to different parts of your body that you don’t want it sticking to. Just having air conditioning in your car isn’t good enough.

    Now this would normally be all horrible, but thank goodness there is a company that designed something to make you cool as a cucumber and keep your underwear all dry in the process. I’m talking about air conditioned seats. I couldn’t even think about living without air conditioned seats anymore.

    Look at how all happy it makes you:



    It looks complicated, but it really isn’t. This is how it works:



    With such a great product, it is so obvious that $$$MR. MARKET$$$ should buy stock in the company which makes a product which makes $$$MR. MARKET$$$ so happy.
    Today I bought stock in Gentherm (THRM) at 41.73. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 48.06. Here’s why I like THRM:

    First of all, look at this amazing chart. It is on a rocket ride up because people are buying cars again. Not only are people buying cars, they are buying cars with air conditioned seats. That means THRM is making a lot of money and these earnings are what is driving up this stock price. It’s really all very simple.





    Its shares are up 125% in the last 52 weeks and are trading at a 52-week high and its forward PE (22) is still very reasonable, making it a great value. A tremendous growth / value story. The kind of stock that $$$MR. MARKET$$$ butters his bread with.

    Can this positive trend continue for THRM? It is pretty encouraging that estimates by the ANAL-ysts for THRM have moved higher in the past few weeks, meaning that ANAL-yst sentiment is moving in the right way.

    Gentherm is a global developer and marketer of innovative thermal management technologies for a broad range of heating and cooling, and temperature control applications. Automotive products include climate controlled seating, whereby car seats may be heated with resistance heating elements or with warmed air ventilation. Other automotive interior temperature controlled systems include heated steering wheels, armrests, cup holders, and other components. It also makes cable systems to connect various electricity uses throughout vehicles, back to the battery and other electronic devices. Now that everyone under 30 spends 50% of their time looking at smartphones, every passenger in a car is going to need a power source, and THRM sells this stuff. Remember when cable TV was viewed as a luxury? It’s now a staple. Well I think the same thing about climate controlled seats.

    At one time, such seats were only available on General Motors' (GM) Cadillac, Nissan Motor's (NSANY) Infiniti and other luxury cars. Today they're in midpriced vehicles such as the Hyundai Sonata and Nissan Pathfinder SUV. They are appealing to a wider population. If that continues, Gentherm should have a good revenue stream for years to come. Luxury car brands account for about 10% to 15% of the overall automobile market. In contrast, midrange vehicles account for about 50%. Remember when a cellphone was a luxury item? Are you feeling me bro?

    They offer a complete suite of thermal technologies for all-season comfort. Their seat climate technology delivers a pleasant microclimate, preventing heat from accumulating between the seat and passengers during hot days and delivering a cozy, warm riding environment during the cooler times of the year. As interior features become an increasing force in consumer appeal, the comfort of a climate seat will influence purchasing decisions in the new car market, and their innovative, affordable solutions have made their thermal comfort products available to various vehicle classes. They offer base systems that use a simple blower or a heat mat or a combination of the two. Their more sophisticated systems include thermoelectric technology to provide added cooling and the flexibility of pre-conditioning and variable temperature control of the seat.

    The maker of car seat-warmers and other automotive accessories saw revenues and earnings jump in its most recent quarterly report. Both figures easily beat Wall Street ANAL-yst estimates. Easily beat is kind…they crushed them by 62%. Management lifted its full-year revenue guidance ahead of ANAL-yst estimates. Barring unforeseen economic turbulence, the 2014 revenue growth outlook remains strong. The Company is now expecting revenue for 2014 to increase by at least 15 percent over 2013 revenue, which was $662 million. I'd expect strong results for the rest of the year as the economic recovery continues. With a ROE of 23%, the company is certainly capitalizing on this explosive demand for its products. More on this later.

    Gentherm is not just an auto parts company. Oh no no no. The company has been making a bigger push on its line of dual-controlled heated and cooled mattress systems. In March, De Ruccie Bedding, with more than 1,400 stores in Asia, and Xilinmen Furniture (which makes roughly a million mattresses a year) both announced a new line of mattresses incorporating Gentherm’s Climate Control Sleep System.
    Sofas and office chairs with this technology were also introduced. This high-end concept (these beds go for $3-4,000), is currently less than 1% of sales, but may soon start to register in its financial results. Hey, when I sit in my office in Houston and my balls are sweating, I want one of these things blowing cold air up my butt. I just gots ta have it!

    The heated and ventilated chair is battery operated and provides thermal conditioning in less demanding environments and at lower costs than the thermoelectrically heated and cooled chair. The new heated and ventilated chair was well received at the trade fair, noted Gentherm President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel R. Coker.

    "We believe there will be significant demand for a heated and ventilated chair in the global office furnishing market," Coker said. "Much like we have found with our popular heated and cooled seat systems in the automotive market, people all over the world enjoy the comfort, and the option, of actively controlling their own thermal environments. It's an added value to office furnishing and, based in part on the interest we saw at Interzum, we believe the heated and ventilated office chair will be an important new product for Gentherm. By offering this product along with our heated and cooled office chair, we give our customers the opportunity to purchase a wider range of climate control products from us across the price spectrum."

    Heating and cooling a workplace can account for 45 percent of a company's annual electric usage. Instead of heating and cooling the entire building or all offices, Gentherm's technology allows you to provide temperature control exactly where it's needed, on your ass.

    Previously known as Amerigon, Gentherm has a worldwide presence with facilities in China, UK, Germany and Japan among others. Gentherm's core businesses are well situated to take advantage of this global opportunity. Three year EPS growth rate is running at 35%. Debt is managed closely with debt to equity running at 25%. This company is really clicking. All indications point to continued growth as production facilities are rolled out in China, new cost-effective markets are exploited and the potential for industry leading technology coming on stream augment the already impressive sales and earnings figures.
    Perhaps the biggest area of future growth is a project to develop technology to filter waste heat from the exhaust into producing electricity used as power for a vehicle's internal systems. This technology could drive a huge increase in efficiency within mass market automobiles with Gentherm positioned to profit immensely. They are HUGE! Bring them your finest meats and cheeses.

    For the 2014 first quarter, revenues were up 31 percent to $193.9 million from $148.1 million in the prior year period. Revenue increases resulted from continued strong shipments of the Company's Climate Control Seats which grew 46 percent year over year (46%!!!) to approximately $81.9 million. This increase was driven by new program launches since the 2013 first quarter and strong production volumes and sales of the vehicles equipped with CCS systems, particularly vehicles in the luxury segment of the automotive market. Additionally, certain vehicles that have been redesigned since the first quarter of the prior year are experiencing very strong production and sales levels, including the General Motors full size SUV platform and the Jeep Grand Cherokee.

    Seat heater revenue grew 25 percent year over year to approximately $80.9 million. This reflected market penetration on certain vehicle programs and also strong production volumes on General Motors' K2XX platform, its new line of full-size trucks and large sport utility vehicles. The Company also had significant growth in the sales of heated steering wheels during the quarter which increased 58 percent year over year to approximately $8.8 million. European-based sales were significantly higher than the prior year as local economies and car sales in that region continue to improve.

    Net income attributable to common shareholders for the 2014 first quarter was $16.6 million, or $0.47 per basic share. Net income attributable to common shareholders for the first quarter of 2013 was $7.7 million, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share. They doubled their earnings! The margin story is also very good. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue for this year's first quarter increased to 29.4 percent, up from 26.4 percent for the 2013 first quarter.

    The quarter was the fifth in a row of at least double-digit EPS growth for Gentherm and at least the 18th straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth.

    GENTHERM IS #23 ON FORTUNE’S FASTEST GROWING COMPANIES 2013

    3-year average
    Revenue Growth: 119%
    Profit Growth: 51%
    Total Return: 36%
    Revenue ($ millions): 574
    Net Income ($ millions): 22.8

    I don’t need that rag Fortune Magazine to tell me that this stock is phenomenal. Let’s just do the math on the earnings and see where the stock price will end up, shall we?

    ANAL-ysts are projecting revenues of 782 million and earnings of $1.58/share. This is pretty tepid considering the company already claimed in their earnings call that revenues would be around $761 million. Now considering the fact that in the last 3 quarters, the company has beaten earnings by 14%, 24% and 62% I think it is fairly safe to say that the company will exceed these sandbag targets. Let me ask you this, do you think more or fewer cars will have climate control seats in the year ahead? Do you think we will sell more or fewer overall cars? More more more.

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows that 2014 revenues will be $906 million with associated EPS of $1.63. If you take the $1.63 per share and multiply it by the existing PE of 35, you get a share price of $1.63 x 35 = $57.05 which is well past my selling target. There you go.

    Here’s what the boss had to say. He’s not Larry Coker, who used to coach at the U. He’s Dan Coker.

    "We had an extraordinary first quarter," said President and CEO Daniel R. Coker. "We achieved record revenues with every part of our business contributing to growth, led by a significant year-over-year increase in sales of our Climate Control Seats (CCS™), which for the first time since the acquisition in 2011, represents the largest portion of our revenues. Gross margins, which fluctuate from quarter to quarter, came in on the high end of the expected range, and we achieved record profits for the quarter."

    “I think you’re going to see a continuing transition from just the heating seats over to heated and cool seats. We have seen, that this is the first quarter where we’ve actually had generated more revenue out of the Climate Control Seat group then we did from the traditional seat heater business and we predicted that that trend was likely to occur. It’s occurred in the past and a month or two but never in a solid steady state for a full quarter. So we expect to see climate control seats heated, then heated and cool seats continue to increase and we still believe there is growth in the heated seats but I think it will be outpace by growth in the heated and climate control seat factors. The product is selling so well that some of the midlevel guys are coming to Gentherm saying we want to put your products in our cars," he said. "Drivers want a better experience, and this is one way to get it."

    Coker continued, "While we achieved a 31 percent increase in revenues over last year's first quarter, for comparison purposes, revenue in the first and second quarters of 2013 was not as strong as in the second half of last year. Consequently, looking forward to the second half of 2014, our quarterly results will be compared to the much stronger results achieved in the second half of 2013. As a result, our year-over-year quarterly increases may not be as large as those in the first half of this year. With that said, however, I believe we remain on track to achieve another year of record results."

    This stock is indeed red hot, but I will have the coolest butt on the planet when I sit on the stacks of monies I am going to make on this investment.

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 06-13-2014, 01:19 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • tiedyed1
    Senior Member
    • Jun 2009
    • 599

    #2
    Congratulations on another terrific write up Mr. Market.
    I purchased THRM on April 8th and have been enjoying the nice warm ride up. I now may look to add more with you sitting with me.

    I also like the size of this company (THRM). Found it when looking at MGA, another data dump stock. THRM is definitely in the drivers seat with larger companies watching closely.

    I was recently shopping for a car and noticed many new models offering heated rear seats (which is great when you have to drive the kids to/from school in the winter months) and now they are talking about seat coolers? HUGE look at the future of this company on a fast road to successful new products. Plus i did not know about the mattresses business. Those foam mattresses are wonderful, but many get too hot. THRM can give comfort with some cooling there too!

    Keep On Keepin' On;
    -Adam
    Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

    Comment

    • billyjoe
      Senior Member
      • Nov 2003
      • 9014

      #3
      Mr.Market, If you'd have mentioned that it cooled off butts when you posted your top 5 I'd have picked it. Talk about important technology !

      ----------------------billy

      Comment

      • mimo_100
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 1784

        #4
        I hope that Kate Middleton, the Duchess of Cambridge, lurks around this website. She may find another way to cool of her royal rear! And maybe invest in a future winner.
        Tim - Retired Problem Solver

        Comment

        • jiesen
          Senior Member
          • Sep 2003
          • 5319

          #5
          Great pick, $$MM!!! I'm in with you at 41.2!

          Comment

          • toxo
            Member
            • Nov 2008
            • 86

            #6
            Love the idea. In @ 41.3

            Comment

            • mrmarket
              Administrator
              • Sep 2003
              • 5971

              #7
              Hot For Geotherm, Bearish On Big Bertha

              Robert Maltbie , Contributor
              Comment Now Follow Comments





              The Long: Gentherm Inc.
              Current price: $41.13
              12-month target price: $50
              As our economy thaws from the chilling grip of an epic polar vortex this past winter, The U.S. equity market is resuming its upward grind once more, possibly signaling the end to a stealth bear market in small caps wherein the average small cap stock has declined nearly 25% from peak to through recently. Here are two ideas to help you benefit from a reaccelerating economy while hedging your downside.
              Gentherm Inc. is a global developer and marketer of innovative thermal management technologies for a broad range of heating and cooling and temperature control applications. Automotive products include actively heated and cooled seat systems. Company growth appears to be unappreciated by the Street for reasons that we expect will be cured. The acquisition of a larger German company last year that was in the making for two years led an inability for the street, both sell side and buy side, to accurately monitor company fundamentals, leading to missed estimates and dropped coverage. With the acquisition completed, the story has become far clearer and we believe it will bring in new attention from investors and analysts.
              The German acquisition will help with penetration of automotive seating products in the EU where it has substantial room to grow. We forecast earnings growth of 55% in 2014 and 12% in 2015 although we think that is conservative. We believe Gentherm Inc. should be valued at 30 x 2015 eps estimates of $1.65. Our 12 – 18 month price target is $50.00.
              Risks are if US and European economies slow that would likely crimp auto sales and hurt Gentherm Inc. Also, the Company completed another acquisition in April and will need to be integrated in the operations and this may impact earnings in the near-term quarters.


              =============================

              I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

              - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

              Comment

              • jiesen
                Senior Member
                • Sep 2003
                • 5319

                #8
                Almost there!

                Comment


                • #9
                  I've already my 15% but still reluctant to sell since I see the price pattern very strong.
                  Am I too greedy?

                  Comment

                  • toxo
                    Member
                    • Nov 2008
                    • 86

                    #10
                    15.4% and I'm out! Thanks, Big Guy!

                    Comment

                    • jiesen
                      Senior Member
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 5319

                      #11
                      Got my 15% at 47.3 today! I hope it gets to 48 tomorrow, and everyone cashes in plenty of dinero on this one! Thanks for this awesome pick, $$MM!! You are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!

                      Comment

                      • joshcord
                        Senior Member
                        • Jun 2011
                        • 118

                        #12
                        Here's a rookie question for any sellers or Ernie; Does anyone use trailing stops when they've arrived or is that a silly choice for reasons I'm missing? Thanks if you will share. jc
                        "It's easy to make money in the stock market" "Just buy a stock that goes up, and then sell it" "If it doesn't go up, don't buy it!" - Mark Twain

                        Comment

                        • mrmarket
                          Administrator
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5971

                          #13
                          Originally posted by joshcord View Post
                          Here's a rookie question for any sellers or Ernie; Does anyone use trailing stops when they've arrived or is that a silly choice for reasons I'm missing? Thanks if you will share. jc
                          I don't use them as I like pushing the button when I sell.
                          =============================

                          I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                          - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                          Comment

                          • joshcord
                            Senior Member
                            • Jun 2011
                            • 118

                            #14
                            Fair enough! I snoozed some yesterday but it wasn't that expensive. Thanks MM, cheese in the mail! Great pick. Maybe it should be the next one too, all the same things seem true about it as before. Keep em coming.
                            (Insert a funny joke about MM and seat coolers here).
                            "It's easy to make money in the stock market" "Just buy a stock that goes up, and then sell it" "If it doesn't go up, don't buy it!" - Mark Twain

                            Comment

                            • Karel
                              Administrator
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 2199

                              #15
                              Today I received a mail that my trade confirmation was available. Trade? What trade? Well, THRM, sold at 48.06. I like to have my buttons pushed for me! YMMV.

                              $$$Mr. Market$$$ is HUGE ! ! !
                              My Investopedia portfolio
                              (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X