The Margaritaville Top 5

[mrmarket]

Here are my 5 favorites, one of which I will buy soon:

BFR CXDC GGAL UIHC XRS


so...which one do you like? and why??

[riverbabe]

XRS on a roar and ready to break out? (Don't cry for me Argentina.)

[toxo]

UIHC back in the Top 5. Hmm...

[toxo]

Made some nice change w/ CXDC. Sold last week. Another go around? Had to take profits as I was up 30% or so.

[tiedyed1]

Two Chinese companies in the Top 5. Is this a leading indicator that we should be giving China another look after getting battered by b.s. fortune cookies years ago?

XRS has me intrigued.
Morgan Stanley and UBS hold more than 8% of total shares of XRS. Maybe I should not feel more comfortable with that statistic but I guess I do.

Going to the website for the school, and then translating it, I was a bit blown away by one part of this paragraph:

Currently, learning and thinking-campus has 240 outstanding teachers, 154,526 online boutique courses , covering mathematics, language, English, physics, chemistry, biology, history and other subjects in first grade to high three; students all over the country and many parts of the world , the number of students has exceeded 86 million. -Campus learning and thinking are constantly innovate, improve quality and effort to build personalized, fun online learning platform to help more and more children to achieve "easy to learn, to change the fate of the" dream.

the number of students has exceeded 86 million? as in 86,000,000?
Could this be correct? Is Google Translate screwing with my head?
If accurate this 86M must be accumulative since 2003. That makes more sense to me now that i am thinking this through.
However, for an 11 year track record and significant growth with no debt what is not to like?
The only hesitation I have is the re-emergence of another China play.

Next I am seeing that the CEO and guys running this place are all in the early-mid 30's.
Who are these guys?
For ease I then Googled the CFO, the one non-Chinese name I may be able to find some dirt on: Joseph Derby Kauffman
Business Week profile reflects:

Mr. Joseph Derby Kauffman has been the Chief Financial Officer of TAL Education Group since June 2010 and serves as its Principal Accounting Officer. Prior to TAL Education, Mr. Kauffman headed M&A and international business development at New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. He served as an Assistant Vice President and Director of Business Development at New Oriental Education & Technology Group since July 2006. He is a fluent Mandarin speaker with strong China business development and marketing experience, first living in China in 1996. From 1999 to 2004, he served as Senior Manager at Coca-Cola China Limited, where he served as Business Director and Deputy General Manager. Mr. Kauffman received a B.A. degree in Asian Studies from Williams College in 1999 and an MBA degree from the Harvard Business School in 2006.

OK, MBA from Harvard. I guess that and everything described can be verified and will assume all is accurate.

I guess I need to trust in the youth of planet Earth. Heck, I have my 13 year old son teaching me tons of tech stuff these days so this old hippy may be ready for some new tie dyes...
I will continue to do my Due Diligence, would like to find out what happened on June 5th last week to get this stock price moving. Maybe Morgan Stanley and UBS are onto something here with a position in XRS...

-Adam
Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

[mrmarket]

Two Chinese companies in the Top 5. Is this a leading indicator that we should be giving China another look after getting battered by b.s. fortune cookies years ago?

XRS has me intrigued.
Morgan Stanley and UBS hold more than 8% of total shares of XRS. Maybe I should not feel more comfortable with that statistic but I guess I do.

Going to the website for the school, and then translating it, I was a bit blown away by one part of this paragraph:

Currently, learning and thinking-campus has 240 outstanding teachers, 154,526 online boutique courses , covering mathematics, language, English, physics, chemistry, biology, history and other subjects in first grade to high three; students all over the country and many parts of the world , the number of students has exceeded 86 million. -Campus learning and thinking are constantly innovate, improve quality and effort to build personalized, fun online learning platform to help more and more children to achieve "easy to learn, to change the fate of the" dream.

the number of students has exceeded 86 million? as in 86,000,000?
Could this be correct? Is Google Translate screwing with my head?
If accurate this 86M must be accumulative since 2003. That makes more sense to me now that i am thinking this through.
However, for an 11 year track record and significant growth with no debt what is not to like?
The only hesitation I have is the re-emergence of another China play.

Next I am seeing that the CEO and guys running this place are all in the early-mid 30's.
Who are these guys?
For ease I then Googled the CFO, the one non-Chinese name I may be able to find some dirt on: Joseph Derby Kauffman
Business Week profile reflects:

Mr. Joseph Derby Kauffman has been the Chief Financial Officer of TAL Education Group since June 2010 and serves as its Principal Accounting Officer. Prior to TAL Education, Mr. Kauffman headed M&A and international business development at New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. He served as an Assistant Vice President and Director of Business Development at New Oriental Education & Technology Group since July 2006. He is a fluent Mandarin speaker with strong China business development and marketing experience, first living in China in 1996. From 1999 to 2004, he served as Senior Manager at Coca-Cola China Limited, where he served as Business Director and Deputy General Manager. Mr. Kauffman received a B.A. degree in Asian Studies from Williams College in 1999 and an MBA degree from the Harvard Business School in 2006.

OK, MBA from Harvard. I guess that and everything described can be verified and will assume all is accurate.

I guess I need to trust in the youth of planet Earth. Heck, I have my 13 year old son teaching me tons of tech stuff these days so this old hippy may be ready for some new tie dyes...
I will continue to do my Due Diligence, would like to find out what happened on June 5th last week to get this stock price moving. Maybe Morgan Stanley and UBS are onto something here with a position in XRS...

-Adam
Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

Adam..you definitely need your own thread...this is awesome research.

[tiedyed1]

Ernie, thanks for your comments.
I admittedly enjoy investigating and finding things out.
When I have the time I get on a roll... but my life is really a crazy pinball machine of responsibilities and currently I really cannot comfortably commit to maintaining my own thread.
(I feel bad enough that I just noticed I received an e-mail from someone on the site which was sent a month ago!)
However, if in the future I settle down and can commit to maintaining a fun and valued contribution with my own thread I definitely will go for it.
In the mean time please enjoy my erratic ramblings (and I urge others to chime in as well whenever they can)!
Thanks again; -Adam
your humble and grateful Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

[billyjoe]

I'd go with BFR with best sales growth and in a strong industry group. Red flags for the others: XRS is the only decent company in its group. CXDC also is in a weak group, has the lowest relative value, and has plunging sales projections. GGAL, lowest sales growth of the group and projected lower sales. UIHC also has a projected sales drop but is in an extremely strong group and we've seen what another strong group(airlines) has done lately.

--------------------billy

[tiedyed1]

I'd go with BFR with best sales growth and in a strong industry group. Red flags for the others: XRS is the only decent company in its group. CXDC also is in a weak group, has the lowest relative value, and has plunging sales projections. GGAL, lowest sales growth of the group and projected lower sales. UIHC also has a projected sales drop but is in an extremely strong group and we've seen what another strong group(airlines) has done lately.

--------------------billy

Billy, BFR does look undervalued. I played around with BBD for years and lost my taste for South American Banks. Not saying I am avoiding BFR and I need to do more DD. BFR has been on a roll compared to its peers and I also sense that some interests come from hopes of BFR getting gobbled up by a bigger bank. Both BFR and BMA (another S.A. Bank) have similar charts. (I love getting turned onto a Top 5 list and then uncovering a possible alternative contender...check out BMA too

I respectfully disagree about CXDC. This company has its fingers not only in the auto industry (where they supply parts to 80 vehicle models across 24 auto manufacturers) but they are also into high-speed trains, marine vessel and aerospace; all of which are growth industries in China and elsewhere. They do not rely on one product or industry and appear to be well balanced. It is tough to get clear information online from many of these established Chinese companies and it was only after after reading the last conference call transcript is when I got interested in CXDC. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2217...p=qanda&l=last . It is not a slam dunk by any means but everything is in motion for CXDC to double production (and top and bottom lines) by early 2016. The new Sichuan plant construction is ahead of schedule and they remain committed to state of the art R&D to lead in a variety of industries where their product proves stronger and superior along with higher profit margins. (The old hippy hates plastic in general but that is not going to keep me away from this PA66 material these guys make which is has a high toughness, high strength and heat resistance which warrants high premiums).

Can't wait to see what direction the HUGE one takes next... in anticipation of the Margaritaville winner I will set up the shots of tequila for everyone.

Keep On Keepin' On; -Adam

[billyjoe]

tiedyed, I'll agree that information from different sources can have opposing reads on the same stock, especially when the same stock can be listed in different industries. Also projected earnings and sales are dependent upon analysts. Two groups of analysts reporting on the same stock often come to different conclusions . Proprietary stock rating can be a crap shoot. I guess those with the wrong information eventually go out of business. Mr. Market is a proven veteran. He'll pick the right stock. I just for once would like to see him pick 2 out of the top 5.

---------------------------billy

[noshadyldy]

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=bfr&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

I like the short float, the Q/Q, the chart breakout and come back "kiss'. It's eps for the next year and the next 5 are "meh".

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=xrs&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

I like th short float, the q/q, the chart breakout (though it may come back for that little kiss) and I love the eps and sps for this year and future. I like these numbers alot better plus it has a nice dividend.


BFR and XRS definitely the only two I'd consider at this time. In my very humble opionion.

CXDC too scary looking for me with that falling knife on strong volume. (I still have deep scars from other falling knives)

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ggal&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

I do't like the short ratio and the chart shows a possiblity of it channeling downward a bit for now. (I'd be more interested in this one and the next one for a swing trade if they go back down)

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=uihc&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

Don't know. don't like it's earnings for next year, or it's past 5 yr eps. and don't know if it's going to break out or channel back down.low volume either way

[tiedyed1]

It is amazing what a couple of days can do to ones sentiment and I am not sure if I can get excited about any Top 5 at the moment.
I tip my hat to billy and agree with noshadyldy as despite my previous logic on CXDC I bailed on my position at the end of today. No need hanging in hoping with terrible action like that.

XRS on the other hand has showed resilience and is holding through these past couple of days. This would be my pick.

BFR maybe getting a pop from World Cup? I am not sure.

Energy plays are the flavor of the week and luckily I have been enjoying the CHK and SLB run to offset the overall red colors grasping many of my other positions.

Mr. Market... was there ever a time you took the etch-a-sketch and just wiped it clean? Maybe another dump and re-evaluating the Top 5 is warranted?



I am going to sit for a few days and see is any of this (downward) movement takes further hold...