SWKS ==> The Tom Brady Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    SWKS ==> The Tom Brady Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    Some of the best things in life are free. I mean really, how can you ever top a clear blue sky:



    Then again, on the other hand, what’s wrong with making a few bucks off of a stock pick that you can spend on cigars, gambling and Johnny Walker Blue? So maybe the best things in life are free, but some of the things in the Top 10 might cost you a few bucks. But then again, if you make money picking stocks, it’s kind of like getting the money for free, especially when $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is picking those stocks.
    Yesterday I bought stock in Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) at 69.01. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 79.49. As you can see in the chart below, shares are up 150% over the past year.



    At the end of the day, this chart is clearly ridiculous. The chart is a straight line to money in the bank. What could possibly exist out there to deviate this trend? Nothing, that’s what. This is a killer chart of a tech company with a PE of only 29. It’s a killer chart because this is a killer company. Do you know someone who uses and Iphone? Yes? If you do, then you know someone who spent money on SWKS.

    Soon, just about every device you use – including your car, appliances, television, and thermostat – will be connected to the Internet. That means you will be able to control everything through your mobile phone, tablet, or PC.

    Skyworks Solutions, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed signal semiconductors worldwide. Its product portfolio includes amplifiers, attenuators, battery chargers, circulators, DC/DC converters, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, filters, front-end modules, hybrids, infrastructure radio frequency subsystems, isolators, LED drivers, mixers, modulators, optocouplers, optoisolators, phase shifters, phase locked loops/synthesizers/VCOs, power dividers/combiners, power management devices, receivers, switches, technical ceramics, and voltage regulators. The company also offers MIS silicon chip capacitors and transceivers. It provides its products for supporting automotive, broadband, wireless infrastructure, energy management, GPS, industrial, medical, military, networking, smartphone, and tablet applications. The company sells its products directly, as well as through independent manufacturers’ representatives and distribution partners.
    In plain English, Skyworks is a semiconductor company that makes "chips" for some of the best-selling mobile phones, tablets, and electronic gadgets in the world – including Apple's iPhone and iPad. Basically, its products help devices connect to wireless signals. That’s right…up in the sky. Skyworks is capitalizing on the growing opportunity on two fronts. First of all, the growth of all wireless applications will continue. Second, the technology growth associated with making these things better and faster.

    This amazing growth of Skyworks is definitely a result of its relationship with Apple. Skyworks has been a longtime supplier of the main antenna switches and power amplifiers for the iPhone. Apple is preparing to produce about 70 million-80 million of its new iPhones 6, and that benefits suppliers like Skyworks. With each successive version of the Iphone, SWKS has more and more cost components installed. So not only do they make more money when more phones are sold, they make more money for EACH phone that is sold. Just a few years ago, SWKS had about $1.50 of chips and junk in each phone. Now they have over $10.00 of stuff packed in there.

    Remember that 50% of handsets are still at 2G and the move to 3G-4G over the next 4 years will result in approx. 8M new handset sales. That’s what I’m sayin girlfriend uh huh.
    As you see in the chart, SWKS stock has really moved since mid-2013. The reason is Skyworks has been able to record double-digit earnings and revenue growth seven quarters in a row while beating ANAL-ysts estimates every single time.

    Skyworks' valuation metrics are very good; the forward P/E is low at 13.6, the 5 year expected PEG ratio is very low at 0.82.
    Last month SWKS reported fourth fiscal quarter and year-end results for the period ending October 3, 2014. Revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was $718.2 million, up 51 percent year-over-year and 22 percent sequentially.

    On a non-GAAP basis, operating income for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2014 was $235.7 million, up 81 percent from $130.3 million in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2013. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2014 was $1.12, compared to $0.64 for the prior year fourth fiscal quarter. For fiscal year 2014, revenue was $2.3 billion, up 28 percent from fiscal 2013, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $3.24, up 47 percent year-over-year. In summary:

    · Delivers Revenue of $718M, up 51% Y-o-Y and 22% Sequentially
    · Expands Non-GAAP Operating Margin to 32.8% (27.6% GAAP)
    · Posts $1.12 of Non-GAAP diluted EPS ($0.90 GAAP)
    · Increases Dividend Payment by 18% to $0.13 Per Share
    · Guides to $770M in Revenue, $1.18 of Non-GAAP Diluted EPS in Q1 FY15


    “Skyworks is aggressively executing on our strategy to deliver sustainable, above market growth with diversified analog semiconductor returns,” said David J. Aldrich, chairman and chief executive officer of Skyworks. “Our advanced solutions are at the heart of mobile connectivity and the Internet of Things, and are empowering exciting new applications spanning mobile payments, to streaming music services, to on-demand media. Given our accelerating design win momentum and deep product pipeline, we have never been better positioned to grow demonstrably faster than our addressable markets and in turn, to deliver best-in-class financial returns.”

    Skyworks’ Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.13 per share of the Company’s common stock, an 18% increase over the dividend for the prior quarter. The dividend is payable on December 11, 2014 to stockholders of record at the close of business on November 18, 2014.

    “Fiscal 2014 was a record year for Skyworks as we exceeded key metrics in each and every quarter and crossed the $2 billion revenue threshold,” said Donald W. Palette, vice president and chief financial officer of Skyworks. “Based on broad customer demand and crisp operational execution, we are now scaling to more than a $3 billion revenue run-rate with annualized non-GAAP earnings per share approaching $5.00. Specifically, for the first fiscal quarter of 2015, we anticipate revenue to be up 52 percent year-over-year to $770 million with further margin expansion yielding $1.18 of non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.”

    Skyworks claims they are capitalizing on the macro trend to connect virtually everyone and everything, all the time. That’s a pretty bold mission statement, but if it gets the stock to 80, I’m all aboard. By the way, it presently pays a 0.8% dividend. Since the company has no debt at all, and it generates lots of cash, and the payout ratio is extremely low, there is a good chance that the company will raise its dividend payment. During the last quarter the company repurchased one million shares of its common stock. Most companies don’t do that unless they are optimistic about future cash flows. Furthermore the fact that they have no debt gives them enormous flexibility.

    The SWKS stock price is 10% above its 50-day simple moving average and 28% above its 200-day simple moving average. That indicates a mid-term and a long-term strong uptrend. Not to get too technical but I think you can tell this stock is on an uptrend by looking at that chart.

    During the last years, Skyworks has been a fast growing company. In fact, it has recorded double-digit earnings and revenue growth seven quarters in a row, and it has achieved an annual average EPS growth of 26% in the last five fiscal years.

    Skyworks has been able to show an earnings per share surprise in each one of the last five quarters, as shown in the table below. This trend will certainly continue, especially since the company seems to enjoy telling the market about its anticipated results, before they are actually released. People don’t brag about their upcoming accomplishments unless it’s inevitable that they will attain them. Just sayin.
    SWKS stock started its strong rally in July 2013, and continued to perform very well in 2014. Since the start of the year, SWKS stock has gained 154%, while the S&P 500 index hasn’t done squidoosh. Given Skyworks' broad Radio Frequency Integrated Circuits portfolio and customer base, its analog portfolio should enable content share gains in its handset customer base. In other words, earnings growth is a given. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, largely solid financial position with zero debt levels, solid stock price performance, impressive record of earnings per share growth and compelling growth in net income. Skyworks increasing focus on non-mobile applications is likely to result in wider profit margins and longer-term sustainable growth.
    I also admire SWKS’ diversity, making a variety of standard and custom chips for automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, energy management, medical and military markets. At the end of the day, there is no reason, given the growth profile, market data, and industry immersion that SWKS has for at least the next 18 months for the stock to be valued at any less than 30x forward EPS. Quite frankly, and don’t repeat this, I don’t have much problem with the ANAL-ysts 2015 estimates of $2.99 billion in revenue and $4.49 per share of earnings. If you take the earnings and multiply them with the PE ratio:
    $4.49 x 29 = $130.21

    As long as they keep posting the results in the next few quarters (pssst…the Apple Iphone6 is a hot seller) the PE multiple will stay strong. So that’s why I am strapped in and I’ll keep riding that chart!

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
    Last edited by mrmarket; 12-19-2014, 06:02 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • investorone

    #2
    Hooray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Comment

    • riverbabe
      Senior Member
      • May 2005
      • 3373

      #3
      At last he sees!

      Comment

      • jiesen
        Senior Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 5319

        #4
        great pick, $$MM!! I'm in with you at 70!

        Comment

        • investorone

          #5
          P.S. I'm adding more because of the MM endorsement!

          Comment

          • billyjoe
            Senior Member
            • Nov 2003
            • 9014

            #6
            SWKS rules ! Up over 4.5% today. Half way to the goal.

            ---------------billy

            Comment

            • blindsquirrel
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2014
              • 286

              #7
              We could break that 52 week high again today. I've been pleased with how SWKS held up to the selling pressure this month.
              Math doesn't lie, but people do.

              Comment

              • billyjoe
                Senior Member
                • Nov 2003
                • 9014

                #8
                SWKS 75.35 at last look. That's over 9% above Mr.Mkts. purchase price. SWKS seems to be shrugging off any negativity over the plummeting oil prices. Should reach goal soon.

                -------------------billy

                Comment

                • billyjoe
                  Senior Member
                  • Nov 2003
                  • 9014

                  #9
                  Up 14.94%, Mr.Market. Get your trigger finger ready !

                  ------------------billy

                  Comment

                  • blindsquirrel
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2014
                    • 286

                    #10
                    Good numbers reported today. If 15% is your target, congrats!
                    Math doesn't lie, but people do.

                    Comment

                    • riverbabe
                      Senior Member
                      • May 2005
                      • 3373

                      #11
                      SWKS currently 15.97% for me. Hangin' in there for more upside.

                      Comment

                      • billyjoe
                        Senior Member
                        • Nov 2003
                        • 9014

                        #12
                        Same here I think there's more meat on this bone (SWKS).

                        ----------------billy

                        Comment

                        • mrmarket
                          Administrator
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5971

                          #13
                          hee hee hee hee
                          =============================

                          I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                          - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            #14
                            It's so easy making $$ with Mr.Market you don't have to break a fingernail. I got a cramp in my hand from clutching large bills !

                            ----------------billy

                            Comment

                            • seabric1
                              Member
                              • Jul 2012
                              • 47

                              #15
                              Sold today for a 17% gain. In at $69.31 and out at $81.32. Thanks Mr Market! You're the man.

                              Comment

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