Am I right??

[clarson11]

Newbie got:


TASR GI FFH PMTI NCEN LPX DEG CMT OMCL DHI

I just ran through the spreadsheet and screens provided by karel. These are the 10 I got off the spreadsheet tonight. They don't seem to match up with the 5 Mr. Market has picked. Did I do something wrong?

Thanks for being so HUGE. I really like this site. Lots of good stuff here!!

[mrmarket]

Re: Am I right??

Newbie got:


TASR GI FFH PMTI NCEN LPX DEG CMT OMCL DHI

I just ran through the spreadsheet and screens provided by karel. These are the 10 I got off the spreadsheet tonight. They don't seem to match up with the 5 Mr. Market has picked. Did I do something wrong?

Thanks for being so HUGE. I really like this site. Lots of good stuff here!!

If your selections make money, there is nothing wrong with them. I like many of the stocks you show above. You are clearly on the right track. Congrats on your investment independence!

[clarson11]

Great thanks

Good to know. based on that then here would be my picks from that list.


My picks would be:

DHI
OMCL

DHI seems stronger fundamentally, but OMCL looks like it has steam in it right now with it's volume, 6 straight quarters of profits and a record 4th quarter. I would trade it. I will paper trade them both.


GI is very weak on volume, but being propped up so I would imagine just a little interest would pop it along. I like OMCL though and would stay there. This will be fun to watch though.


After you have a list of say 5. Do you look at fundamentals primarily? Or do you use any technical indicators or chart techniques to help in comfirming your picks? Combination?

[mrmarket]

Re: Great thanks

After you have a list of say 5. Do you look at fundamentals primarily? Or do you use any technical indicators or chart techniques to help in comfirming your picks? Combination?

I'd have to say that's the "secret sauce". All 5 companies are usually very good. But these are the things I look at and compare to select the creme de la creme:

relative price change and r-squared, historical growth, The stock’s current price relative to its 52 week price high, Recent and past price and volume activity, recent sales and earnings growth acceleration, quarterly sales and earnings growth rates, analyst estimate increases, earnings growth going forward, earnings stability, revenue and margin growth, risk vs. reward, is the stock capable of doubling again, is it still undiscovered, is it a gorilla in its market, are the earnings of high quality, management ownership, cash flow, PE multiple, Relative Price Strength Rating, Moving Average trends, Up volume vs. down volume, return on equity, Recent price performance vs. its industry , industry group’s price performance vs. the S&P 500 index, other primary industry fundamentals and macroeconomic correlations.

Sorry, but this is the point where it becomes subjective rather than quantitative. Usually one of the 5 just "feels" better than the others. But the key is getting down to 5 stocks since it's so much easier to select one stock from 5 rather than one stock out of 10,000. Make sense?

[clarson11]

Thank You

Yes it makes a HUGE amount of sense. Let me thank you for taking the time. I think I have more work to do. You put a lot of stuff in that secret sauce. Those are all things I have read about or studied. Also technical indicators etc. However, I have never gotten any validation or feedback on what I was doing, what I should look at etc.

Thanks again for being so HUGE and sharing you knowledge.

Let me be sure I am understanding what we look for and then I will hit the books :

The stock’s current price relative to its 52 week price high:
Probably would be looking to make sure it is close to or setting new highs. Don't want a stock that has lost or is losing too much steam.


Recent and past price and volume activity:

Same thing. Want to be sure todays/recent volume is better then average with an increasing price overall indicating interest.



recent sales and earnings growth acceleration, quarterly sales and earnings growth rates, analyst estimate increases

Good fundamentals with things generally looking up.


earnings stability, revenue and margin growth:
Once you get your 4 or 5 companies. Is part of your DD going through quarterlies and throwing the numbers into a spread sheet so you can see profit margins etc. over time? I say throw numbers into a spread sheet as most sites I go to only show current data and SEC filings. To see those trends you have to do a little work pouring over quarterlies.


cash flow, PE multiple, Relative Price Strength Rating, Moving Average trends:

Higher cash flow the better
A lower PE would indicate it has room to grow with a little less risk as PE should = earnings growth in a fairly valued company? Or something like that?

Moving averages. Beating or close to popping 50 day. Climbing through? Anything in particular, contraints to look for?


Thanks again for your time. It is great to have validation.