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The bells are ringing. The sirens are blaring. The smoke is rising. In the middle of a 5 alarm fire? Nope..guess again. The cocktail waitresses are spilling out of their uniforms as they hand $$$MR. MARKET$$$ a freezing cold martini filled to the brim with Thor’s hammer vodka. The casino thinks that if they ply $$$MR. MARKET$$$ and fellow Titan Omega with alcohol, they will get them to make wagers so that they fall victim to the house chicanery. Little do they know that the Titans eat casinos for breakfast. Even a run of bad luck can be fixed on Tennessee ave with a little hot water to stop the oil.
Bet Bet Ba Ba Ba Ba BET! Every one loves to win! Remember you must bet big to win big! The casinos give away money if you have the skill to take it. That is how they build suck large edifices, gaming has returned to the adult play ground themes and the profits are returning as well. Wanna Bet?
Today I bought ASCA (Ameristar Casino) at 27. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 31.28. Here’s why I like ASCA:
ASCA’s stock is up about 240% in the last 12 months yet it sports a paltry PE of only 14.70.
The economy is coming back and people have more disposable income. What better way to use your “disposable” income than to dispose it at a casino. That’s right, throw those Jacksons away. You didn’t need them anyway.
Ameristar Casinos, Inc. is an innovative, Las Vegas-based gaming and
entertainment company known for its distinctive, quality-conscious hotel-casinos and value orientation. Led by President and Chief Executive Officer Craig H. Neilsen, the organization's roots go back nearly five decades to a tiny roadside casino in the high plateau country that borders Idaho and Nevada.
Look…there’s nothing special about Vegas or Atlantic City, other than the fact that people will go there to piss away their money. Buy building new casinos in places closer to healthy Midwest population centers, Ameristar is siphoning off existing gamblers and and creating new gamblers. Today, the Midwest's riverboat gaming market is growing at a faster clip, in double digits, than its land-based counterparts in Las Vegas and Atlantic City, N.J. More folks opt to drive a couple of hours to spend their leisure money than hop a plane and travel to some distant locale.
In December 2000, Ameristar spent $475 million to buy two Missouri facilities from Station Casinos Inc and they haven’t looked back. That more than doubled Ameristar's size and sent revenue soaring. It changed the entire company. It gave the company very high quality assets at a low price. And it also improved prospects for earnings and cash-flow growth. Station needed to fold and leave town in the wake of an ethics probe by the Missouri Gaming Commission and Ameristar is the benefactor of all of this. It was a kind of distress sale situation where Station really had to get out of the state.
Goodbye Station..hello Ameristar! Now they are growing and growing. Once those suckers, I mean people, arrive, the key is to keep them around longer so they'll spend more cash at the slot machines or crap tables. Casinos offer plenty of amenities: entertainment, fine dining, hotels. ASCA believes they have the highest-quality facility with very attractive nongaming amenities.
Another bonus for Ameristar: Though demand for gaming continues to grow, supply is fixed. Unlike Nevada, where it's an unlimited license jurisdiction, many of these riverboat markets have already given out the number of legislatively mandated licenses, Jordan said. There are no new properties coming in.
Look at the revenue growth!! In 2001, they did 627 million. In 2002, they did 698 million and last year they did 782 million! That 13% growth over the last couple of years is kicking the crap out of the palaces in Vegas. Income is surging with it as they done about 20% growth in net EPS over the last couple of years. With the growing economy continuing unabated, $$MR. MARKET$$$ sees this growth continuing. My prediction is $881 million in revenues for 2004 which would get them profits of $2.07/share. Try applying the industry average PE of 33 to these earnings. You get a stock price of $68.31. Now we’re talking!! The 11 analysts covering ASCA think it will earn $1.97/share. These nerds just don’t understand the inescapable grip of gambling. Just ask Fred Flinstone and Arnold the Paperboy. Bet bet bet ba ba bet bet BET!!!
Why do I think this growth will continue? What about competition?
At the end of last year, Ameristar KC smoted competition they now have 37.28% share in a four boat market. The current numbers are record highs. Ameristar St. Charles/St. Louis "led all state casinos with 12.8% month-over-month growth and $22.6 million in gross revenues." Ameristar KC finished the month "with $18.76 million in revenue, its third best month ever. Sources say the places are packed with gamblers with people waiting on table games.
Other reasons why I think ASCA is undervalued:
Price to cash flow stands at 6.4 vs. industry average of 8.5. Based on this metric alone, ASCA’s share price should be around 35.
Return on Equity is a scorching 19.5% vs. the industry average of 8%. With cash flow at around 100 million, they can whack down their debt pretty quickly if they had to. With gross margins in the area of 47%, their growing revenues will move quickly to the bottom line.
Last week ASCA announced fourth quarter 2003 results that exceeded
management's previously issued guidance. (Do you detect a pattern here?? Yes??? Good.) Ameristar also announced record results for the year ended December 31, 2003.
Here were some operational Highlights
* Number one in gaming market share in all of our markets for
both the fourth quarter of 2003 and the full year 2003, and at the
same time improved our operating income and EBITDA margins year- over-year for both periods.
* ASCA led markets in the introduction of coinless slot technology at our Ameristar branded properties with approximately 75% of the slot
machines coinless at the end of 2003. They expect to have approximately
100% of the slot machines at these properties coinless by the end
of 2004. Who wants to handle those coins anyway?? Blecchhh….do you know where people might be putting those things?? Bogus!!
And this is what the boss said:
"During 2003, we continued to successfully execute our key operating
strategies designed to enhance the overall excitement of our facilities and improve our profitability," said Craig H. Neilsen, Chairman and CEO. " We believe our record financial results for 2003 validate the effectiveness of our business strategies and strength of the Ameristar brand. We believe we are well positioned for continued financial success and future expansion."
This is not some high tech stock or biotech research company that may hype on its future blockbuster potentials. One can actually see their business by visiting its casinos. These places are crowded on weeknights. Compare this to a Tuesday night in Atlantic City!
Outlook
For the year ending December 31, 2004, we currently estimate operating
income of $144.0 million to $154.0 million, EBITDA of $215.0 million to
$225.0 million (given anticipated depreciation expense of $71.0 million),
interest expense of $57.1 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.94 to $2.16. Ok..so where is it going to be? Closer to what the ANALysts say or will they smash these sandbagged numbers in a growing economy?
Want to see some distressing news?
St. Charles, Mo., July 29, 2002–A slot player at Ameristar Casino St. Charles hit the jackpot Monday, July 22, 2002, with a whopping $679,353 prize.
The winner, who elected to remain anonymous, was playing a 25-cent, three-coin Triple Diamond Wheel of Gold machine at 3:15 p.m. on the first level of the casino when all the right symbols lined up perfectly.
I’m not worried….he’ll be back.
Anyway..happy VD to all you lovers out there. I hope you get to spread as much VD love as is possible this year.
Bet Bet Ba Ba Ba Ba BET! Every one loves to win! Remember you must bet big to win big! The casinos give away money if you have the skill to take it. That is how they build suck large edifices, gaming has returned to the adult play ground themes and the profits are returning as well. Wanna Bet?
Today I bought ASCA (Ameristar Casino) at 27. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 31.28. Here’s why I like ASCA:
ASCA’s stock is up about 240% in the last 12 months yet it sports a paltry PE of only 14.70.
The economy is coming back and people have more disposable income. What better way to use your “disposable” income than to dispose it at a casino. That’s right, throw those Jacksons away. You didn’t need them anyway.
Ameristar Casinos, Inc. is an innovative, Las Vegas-based gaming and
entertainment company known for its distinctive, quality-conscious hotel-casinos and value orientation. Led by President and Chief Executive Officer Craig H. Neilsen, the organization's roots go back nearly five decades to a tiny roadside casino in the high plateau country that borders Idaho and Nevada.
Look…there’s nothing special about Vegas or Atlantic City, other than the fact that people will go there to piss away their money. Buy building new casinos in places closer to healthy Midwest population centers, Ameristar is siphoning off existing gamblers and and creating new gamblers. Today, the Midwest's riverboat gaming market is growing at a faster clip, in double digits, than its land-based counterparts in Las Vegas and Atlantic City, N.J. More folks opt to drive a couple of hours to spend their leisure money than hop a plane and travel to some distant locale.
In December 2000, Ameristar spent $475 million to buy two Missouri facilities from Station Casinos Inc and they haven’t looked back. That more than doubled Ameristar's size and sent revenue soaring. It changed the entire company. It gave the company very high quality assets at a low price. And it also improved prospects for earnings and cash-flow growth. Station needed to fold and leave town in the wake of an ethics probe by the Missouri Gaming Commission and Ameristar is the benefactor of all of this. It was a kind of distress sale situation where Station really had to get out of the state.
Goodbye Station..hello Ameristar! Now they are growing and growing. Once those suckers, I mean people, arrive, the key is to keep them around longer so they'll spend more cash at the slot machines or crap tables. Casinos offer plenty of amenities: entertainment, fine dining, hotels. ASCA believes they have the highest-quality facility with very attractive nongaming amenities.
Another bonus for Ameristar: Though demand for gaming continues to grow, supply is fixed. Unlike Nevada, where it's an unlimited license jurisdiction, many of these riverboat markets have already given out the number of legislatively mandated licenses, Jordan said. There are no new properties coming in.
Look at the revenue growth!! In 2001, they did 627 million. In 2002, they did 698 million and last year they did 782 million! That 13% growth over the last couple of years is kicking the crap out of the palaces in Vegas. Income is surging with it as they done about 20% growth in net EPS over the last couple of years. With the growing economy continuing unabated, $$MR. MARKET$$$ sees this growth continuing. My prediction is $881 million in revenues for 2004 which would get them profits of $2.07/share. Try applying the industry average PE of 33 to these earnings. You get a stock price of $68.31. Now we’re talking!! The 11 analysts covering ASCA think it will earn $1.97/share. These nerds just don’t understand the inescapable grip of gambling. Just ask Fred Flinstone and Arnold the Paperboy. Bet bet bet ba ba bet bet BET!!!
Why do I think this growth will continue? What about competition?
At the end of last year, Ameristar KC smoted competition they now have 37.28% share in a four boat market. The current numbers are record highs. Ameristar St. Charles/St. Louis "led all state casinos with 12.8% month-over-month growth and $22.6 million in gross revenues." Ameristar KC finished the month "with $18.76 million in revenue, its third best month ever. Sources say the places are packed with gamblers with people waiting on table games.
Other reasons why I think ASCA is undervalued:
Price to cash flow stands at 6.4 vs. industry average of 8.5. Based on this metric alone, ASCA’s share price should be around 35.
Return on Equity is a scorching 19.5% vs. the industry average of 8%. With cash flow at around 100 million, they can whack down their debt pretty quickly if they had to. With gross margins in the area of 47%, their growing revenues will move quickly to the bottom line.
Last week ASCA announced fourth quarter 2003 results that exceeded
management's previously issued guidance. (Do you detect a pattern here?? Yes??? Good.) Ameristar also announced record results for the year ended December 31, 2003.
Here were some operational Highlights
* Number one in gaming market share in all of our markets for
both the fourth quarter of 2003 and the full year 2003, and at the
same time improved our operating income and EBITDA margins year- over-year for both periods.
* ASCA led markets in the introduction of coinless slot technology at our Ameristar branded properties with approximately 75% of the slot
machines coinless at the end of 2003. They expect to have approximately
100% of the slot machines at these properties coinless by the end
of 2004. Who wants to handle those coins anyway?? Blecchhh….do you know where people might be putting those things?? Bogus!!
And this is what the boss said:
"During 2003, we continued to successfully execute our key operating
strategies designed to enhance the overall excitement of our facilities and improve our profitability," said Craig H. Neilsen, Chairman and CEO. " We believe our record financial results for 2003 validate the effectiveness of our business strategies and strength of the Ameristar brand. We believe we are well positioned for continued financial success and future expansion."
This is not some high tech stock or biotech research company that may hype on its future blockbuster potentials. One can actually see their business by visiting its casinos. These places are crowded on weeknights. Compare this to a Tuesday night in Atlantic City!
Outlook
For the year ending December 31, 2004, we currently estimate operating
income of $144.0 million to $154.0 million, EBITDA of $215.0 million to
$225.0 million (given anticipated depreciation expense of $71.0 million),
interest expense of $57.1 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.94 to $2.16. Ok..so where is it going to be? Closer to what the ANALysts say or will they smash these sandbagged numbers in a growing economy?
Want to see some distressing news?
St. Charles, Mo., July 29, 2002–A slot player at Ameristar Casino St. Charles hit the jackpot Monday, July 22, 2002, with a whopping $679,353 prize.
The winner, who elected to remain anonymous, was playing a 25-cent, three-coin Triple Diamond Wheel of Gold machine at 3:15 p.m. on the first level of the casino when all the right symbols lined up perfectly.
I’m not worried….he’ll be back.
Anyway..happy VD to all you lovers out there. I hope you get to spread as much VD love as is possible this year.
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