HRTG Sold ==> Yet another winner for the greatest stock picker ever

[Louetta]

yes, its current price is highly illogical. could it be too good to be true? yes.

but what do you do when your goose lays a golden egg? do you take it apart to find out why? or do you take the egg, and keep feeding it the same stuff until it lays another?

Well most of the geese in my area have gone back to Canada for the summer but methinks you suggest an appropriate metaphor. If one has a stock with increasing topline and bottomline which has recently initiated paying dividends it probably makes sense to stick with it.

[jiesen]

yes, its current price is highly illogical. could it be too good to be true? yes.

but what do you do when your goose lays a golden egg? do you take it apart to find out why? or do you take the egg, and keep feeding it the same stuff until it lays another?

[billyjoe]

Why did HRTG drop like a rock? I didn't see anything to justify such a fall.

------------billy

[Louetta]

So now that I'm in deeper with HRTG on gut instinct, time for the gut check:
Book value=$11/shr
EPS estimates for the next 2 years is >$6 total (2.8+3.4).
So if you buy HRTG at $16, then in two years it should have a BV worth more than what you paid for it.
Which means, as long as they meet EPS estimates for the next two years (no big storms) we can't lose!
Yep, a good price right here.
(of course these #'s all come from Yahoo! and there's always the chance they're bogus, either by misreading the finance data by Yahoo! or by myself, or the misreporting by the company, so there's that risk)

Don't see anything in Zack's to contradict those numbers. Plus they have now started paying dividends and have plenty of earnings to cover it. The chart is interesting. Mid July it was at 27. By Labor Day at 17. Back to 24 at Halloween and now under 16. Looks more like a biotech than an insurance company.

[jiesen]

So now that I'm in deeper with HRTG on gut instinct, time for the gut check:
Book value=$11/shr
EPS estimates for the next 2 years is >$6 total (2.8+3.4).
So if you buy HRTG at $16, then in two years it should have a BV worth more than what you paid for it.
Which means, as long as they meet EPS estimates for the next two years (no big storms) we can't lose!
Yep, a good price right here.
(of course these #'s all come from Yahoo! and there's always the chance they're bogus, either by misreading the finance data by Yahoo! or by myself, or the misreporting by the company, so there's that risk)

[Louetta]

Moi, aussi.

[jiesen]

I doubled up on my HRTG position this week at 15.6 - seems to be a great bargain for this one. We'll see!

[Louetta]

I was figurin' on buying on Monday. Don't see any alarming financials on Zack's. Looks like they just started paying a dividend last quarter and with $3 a share in yearly earnings methinks one might look for an increase of a $.05 quarterly dividend. Current price is like an 18 month low.

[jiesen]

I'm holding HRTG too, and I know that as long as there aren't any big hurricane claims rolling in, then the profits for HRTG will be. Up, down, sideways... whichever way it trades, the stock will eventually reflect those profits, and if you're patient through all the noise, you'll get paid then. (That's probably how Buffett would see it, too, imo.)

[Louetta]

HRTG beat on earnings and revenue. Drops' 12%. Any idea as to why?

I'll take a stab at it. The following site reports year over year earnings growth for the quarter was about 3%. Compared to values for previous quarters in the table on that site some probably found this disappointing. There's no 10Q or 10K yet so one can't see if there were extraordinary items which might cause this. If this were NFLX that would be disappointing.

http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/heritage-insurance-holdings-inc-hrtg-us-earnings-analysis-q4-2015-by-the-numbers/

Also this next site shows Gross Premiums Written decreasing 8% quarter over quarter. This might do it. There is an explanation I didn't really read. Really analyzing an insurance company's stuff might require a Buffett type person. Gross stuff like revenues and earnings look OK to me.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heritage-insurance-holdings-reports-financial-213000630.html

[Lucavia123]

HRTG beat on earnings and revenue. Drops' 12%. Any idea as to why?

[larythebird0]

Another great pick!

Please keep the picks coming.... Maybe a position as Vice President is in your future.
I bet President Trump would want a "Huge" running mate!

[joshcord]

Replies are the new Ignore & Sponge. jc

[rickflyboy]

Congratulations another winner!!

[mrmarket]

While I had vanished from posting over the last few months (due to focusing on a family member undergoing her chemo) this psychedelic warrior remains lurking in the wings as the HUGE one continues to fly high.

PLEASE share a new pick soon. i am in need of some healthy therapy!

-Adam
Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

Adam...sending positive thoughts for speedy recoveries in your family