SAFM ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Other President's Day Winne

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    SAFM ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Other President's Day Winne

    When I was a lowly college student, it was often hard to find two nickels to rub together at 2 am on a Friday night after 8 solid hours of carb consumption. Back then, ATM machines were not very prevalent, and once your wallet was empty, it was time to go home. Unfortunately, there was a Roy Rogers restaurant located across the block from our fraternity house. On so many of those nights, we’d walk into the Roy Rogers and stumble up to the counter. There, in full glory, not more than 3 feet away, sat the display container which housed over 100 pieces of mouth watering fried chicken. After ordering a small Coke, the display container held about 84 pieces of fried chicken and, later that night, the pockets of our football jackets smelled like fried chicken. It seemed like the astute Roy’s management quickly caught on and they began checking our jacket pockets. You’d be surprised where pieces of fried chicken can be hidden. Pretty soon, our fraternity underwear had the aroma of extra crispy. As they say, all good things must come to an end. After months of not being able to reconcile their fried chicken inventory, Roy Rogers on 40th and Walnut no longer would house their fried chicken on the countertop. It was moved way in the back, forever out of reach. Young $$$MR. MARKET$$$ was very very sad. My young strapping physique was craving protein and there was none to be had.

    Now, at age 44, when I’m in the gym in the morning slamming 385 lbs like it is my girlfriend, my body still craves protein. You can only eat so much Nitro Tech until you start to leave cinder blocks in your commode. Sorry, but Dr. Atkins was an endomorph and red meat doesn’t cut it. If you want to blow out an aorta, that’s your business. Well they blew up the chicken man in Philly last night, and they blew up his house too.

    Today I bought SAFM (Sanderson Farms) at 57.34. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 66.25. Here’s why I like SAFM:

    SAFM stock is up over 212% in the last 52 weeks yet its P/E is less than 14. It has been bounding to new highs like a steady staircase, with an r^2 correlation of 0.91.

    I like to eat healthy, tins of tuna, chicken from a chain store, eggamuffin.....yea When I am trying to get lean I eat Nitro Tech chicken, tuna, and more chicken. Sanderson knows chicken. His name even sounds like the godfather of chicken (Col Sanders). The company dressed 1.4 billion pounds of chicken. That’s a lot of those little cluckers to put in pants and shirts but it seems to be working for Sanderson. Check out the $$$Mr. Market$$$-like chart, not to mention earnings are coming up and the recent downward trend to scoop SAFM cheap because the birds had colds.(avian flu). Avian Flu?? Don’t make me laugh, I put Avian Flu in my coffee in the morning. Nothing a little Tabasco can’t take care of. Pass the hot sauce.. they also serves good gumbo and shrimp creole!

    Today, Sanderson Farms is a Company with products shipped to nearly every state in the country and to many foreign nations. The Company is engaged in the production, processing, marketing and distribution of fresh and frozen chicken and other prepared food items. Sanderson topped $870 million in sales in fiscal 2003, setting a new record for the Company.

    From the beginning, Sanderson Farms has been an honest, down-to-earth leader in the chicken business – one that emphasized family values long before it was a hot trend to do so. The company actually began in 1947 as a farm supply business, which sold seed, feed, fertilizer, and other farm supplies. In 1951, D.R. Sanderson, Sr., D.R. Sanderson, Jr., and Joe Frank Sanderson organized a partnership under the name of "Sanderson Brothers." During the next few years, poultry production was added to the business. Then, in 1955, Sanderson Farms was incorporated, and the company, which started as a feed and seed store, began the rise to becoming the top-quality chicken producer we are today. Derek Sanderson was the renegade Sanderson. Instead of raising chickens, he played for the Boston Bruins.

    Sanderson Farms, ranked among the top seven poultry producers in the country, currently employs over 8,500 people and contracts with over 600 independent growers. As a result, Sanderson Farms has grown steadily and quickly, becoming one of the largest poultry companies in the industry. The company sells ice pack, chill pack and frozen chicken, in whole, cut-up and boneless form, principally under the Sanderson Farms brand name, to retailers (including national and regional supermarket chains and local supermarkets), distributors and fast food operators primarily in the southeastern, southwestern and western U.S.

    What’s really great about SAFM? Louise Mandrell has endorsed Sanderson Farms chicken for over 20 years and look how good she looks? If she was endorsing some meat packing plant, she’d look like Mama Cass.

    Processed chicken is first salable as an ice packed whole chicken. The company adds value to its ice packed whole chickens by removing the giblets, weighing, packaging and labeling the product to specific customer requirements, and cutting the product based on customer specifications. The additional processing steps of giblet removal, close tolerance weighing and cutting increase the value of the product to the customer over whole chickens by reducing customer handling and cutting labor and capital costs, reducing shrinkage related to cutting, and ensuring consistently sized portions.

    The beauty of this investment is that the trend is your friend. Yes..the Atkins rage has taken over this country. We all should be cutting back on the carbs, ask any breadman at your neighborhood gym. However, eating bacon and hamburger ain’t the way to do it. $$$MR. MARKET$$$, with his million dollar physique, knows that chicken and tuna are the way to go. Lots of people will soon know that too.

    Fish prices are rising and have been rising for over a decade, and it won’t be long for chicken prices to follow as fish gets to be too expensive as a source of healthy protein. According to Sanderson, market prices for all poultry products were higher during the fourth quarter than in the prior-year period. As measured by a simple average of the Georgia dock price for whole chickens, prices increased approximately 7.8% in the Company's fourth fiscal quarter compared with the same period in 2002. Boneless breast meat prices during the quarter were approximately 26.5% higher than the prior-year period and were up 17.2% for the year. Bulk leg quarter prices increased approximately 67.4% during the quarter and were up 12.8% for the year. Wing prices averaged 71.2 cents per pound, up 47.9% from the average of 48.1 cents per pound during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2002. You sees??

    The idea is nowhere near played out. There are no low-carb magazines or restaurants yet, and low-carb products are only just hitting the mass-market stores and mainstream restaurants. Soon we will have fast food low carb / high protein joints and chicken will be the staple. Just wait.
    Take a look at what happened in Japan. They just want to be like Americans. 50 years ago, only 5% of the Japanese drank coffee. Now 75% of them do. Once China gets hip on the internet, the Chinese will follow the same behavior patterns. Wait until they jump on the South Beach diet and start pumping iron. Chicken…chicken..chicken. Gimmeeee more chickens.

    Is this happening already? Maybe…just maybe. SAFM’s revenues have grown sequentially each and every year for the last ten years. Not many companies can make that claim. In the last 3 years, revenues have grown at a clip of 8% per year and 2003 was a record for net income! And……they also pay a dividend…..and…they also will split 3 for 2 this month….and…people are eating more chicken.

    SAFM has paid down their debt so that it is a meager 9% of total capitalization. Return on Assets is an amazing 18.7% (vs. industry average 3.7%) while Return on Equity is 30.6% vs. industry average 9.3%. The time has come for all good men to consume chicken. Last year, SAFM made $4.12/share. 2004 will be the year of the chicken, and SAFM will nail $5.15/share as they crack $1 billion in chicken sales. Even at its humble P/E of 14, these earnings will scratch its share price to $72.10/share. There’s only one ANALyst following this stock, so ANALyst coverage is essentially meaningless.

    Here is something meaningful….what the boss has to say. Take it from the colonel:

    "Sanderson Farms continued to demonstrate solid execution in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2003, capping off an outstanding year for the Company," said Joe F. Sanderson, Jr., president and chief executive officer of Sanderson Farms, Inc. "Earnings for both our fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 31, 2003, set records and reflect the continued overall improvement in the chicken market compared with conditions a year ago. Our ability to focus and execute on the key areas for success in our business -- delivering a profitable and favorable product mix, efficiently managing our operations and maintaining a strong financial position -- allowed us to achieve these results. More importantly, we are pleased to deliver another year of improved earnings for our shareholders."

    "One of our key financial objectives for 2003 was to aggressively manage our working capital and other key components of our balance sheet, and we are very pleased to report that our financial position and liquidity improved considerably in fiscal 2003," added Sanderson. "As of October 31, 2003, our balance sheet reflects stockholders' equity of $197.1 million and net working capital of $82.2 million. During fiscal 2003, we reduced our long-term debt by over $28.3 million. At the end of our fiscal year, our long-term debt totaled $21.6 million and our debt to total capitalization ratio was 11.6%. In light of our strong cash flow during fiscal 2003, our Board of Directors declared a special dividend of $0.50 per share that was paid in October. The Board also increased our regular quarterly dividend to $0.12 per quarter from $0.10 per quarter. Looking ahead, we hope to continue to build on this momentum in 2004.”

    With the monies I make from my SAFM investment, I’ll be able to go to Roy Rogers and open my wallet and eat as much chicken as I want, without having to wash my clothes afterwards.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • casinoboy3

    #2
    Glad to see you quoting Springsteen, was getting a little worried by no mention in your last two picks.......
    Anyway looks good to me, I'll be in tomorrow morning.

    Thanks!

    Comment

    • scifos
      Senior Member
      • Jan 2004
      • 790

      #3
      I guess I disagree with you on this one. All the top 5 were fine stocks, but I'm in with MTH on this one.
      Buy Low
      Sell High
      STAY FROSTY!

      Comment

      • titanomega1
        Member
        • Sep 2003
        • 54

        #4
        animal farm?

        U sees what you get when u mess with da orphans?

        Like the misguided orphans some may not buy into the chicken ranch. But I for one do not have 51 winners in a row. I can't bench 385. I may have had a fried CHICKEN breast or two in my pocket not to mention a stack of pickles.

        I parlayed my winnings from URBN into Sanderson and I will be counting my quatloops by march!

        You you you!
        "my elbows are hinges, my arms machines"

        Comment


        • #5
          Bird Flu and Dividend

          Hi Ernie,

          Do you think SAFM revenue and stock price be affected by bird flu?

          Are you entitled to their dividend when you bought their stocks today and hold on till next month?

          Thanks,
          WCu

          Comment


          • #6
            Say it ain't so

            MM,

            Say it ain't so. After this pick will your motto be "Bring me your finest chickens and milk !!!!"

            Comment

            • jiesen
              Senior Member
              • Sep 2003
              • 5320

              #7
              did I call this or what?

              At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.


              I really hate to say I told you so but... I knew this was gonna happen.

              still, this one looks good as long as they get through this bird flu ok, so I picked it up at a discount.

              Comment

              • mrmarket
                Administrator
                • Sep 2003
                • 5971

                #8
                Re: did I call this or what?

                Originally posted by jiesen
                http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040223/birdflu_markets_1.html

                I really hate to say I told you so but... I knew this was gonna happen.

                still, this one looks good as long as they get through this bird flu ok, so I picked it up at a discount.
                What's the matter, you all "chicken"?
                =============================

                I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                Comment

                • mrmarket
                  Administrator
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5971

                  #9
                  Seriously, I did assess the long term risks..which are basically zero against the short term downside of having these outbreaks. The media is focused on it and we probably won't see the last of it.

                  But really now...do you think people on this planet will someday stop eating chicken? I don't.
                  =============================

                  I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                  - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                  Comment

                  • jiesen
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 5320

                    #10
                    you're right...

                    of course! I agree with you about the longer term, and that's why I'm in with you. But I also think you can never overestimate the potential of mass hysteria to mess with near-term stock prices. Easy call on this one.

                    Comment

                    • mrmarket
                      Administrator
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 5971

                      #11
                      Re: you're right...

                      Originally posted by jiesen
                      of course! I agree with you about the longer term, and that's why I'm in with you. But I also think you can never overestimate the potential of mass hysteria to mess with near-term stock prices. Easy call on this one.

                      The market is always right in the short run. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is always right in the long run...I got 51 reasons to back that up!
                      =============================

                      I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                      - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                      Comment

                      • The Photon
                        Senior Member
                        • Nov 2003
                        • 189

                        #12
                        chock'n my chicken

                        Highly contagious strain of bird flu found in Texas
                        Disease is riskier than first thought for chickens, but little apparent threat to humans
                        ADVERTISEMENT


                        Ernie: Sanderson farms is 100mi east, near college station- bad luck,



                        By T.A. Badger

                        ASSOCIATED PRESS

                        Tuesday, February 24, 2004

                        GONZALES -- A strain of avian influenza found on a South Texas chicken farm is considered far deadlier to poultry than originally thought and has spread to live bird markets in Houston, federal officials said Monday.

                        However, the flu is not the same strain that has killed at least 22 people in Asia, said Ron DeHaven, chief veterinarian at the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

                        The highly contagious strain, found in Gonzales County about 50 miles east of San Antonio, poses little threat to people, said Nancy Cox, an influenza expert at the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

                        It is the first time since 1983-84 that high-pathogenic avian flu has been found in the United States, DeHaven said. Those cases were found in Virginia and Pennsylvania.

                        The precise location of the Texas farm and the name of its owner were not made public. The lone worker who handled the chickens has had no health problems, said Mark Michalke, a Texas Animal Health Commission field veterinarian.

                        The farm's flock of about 6,600 broilers was killed during the weekend, DeHaven said. He praised the state's decision to order the infected flock destroyed and to alert other farmers to the hazard.

                        "They quickly and effectively reduced the chances for the spread of infection, both from an animal standpoint and any potential human health standpoint," he said.

                        Gonzales County is one of Texas' top poultry-producing counties with more than 85 million birds with a value of $100 million, according to Agriculture Department data.

                        Animal health workers were testing farms within a 10-mile radius of the infected farm by taking blood samples or throat swabs on 10 percent of the birds, Michalke said. There are no poultry farms within a 1 1/4-mile radius of the infected farm, "so we've got some breathing room there," Michalke said Monday in Gonzales.

                        The farmer with the infected birds sent out tissue samples for testing in mid-February after some of his birds died and others appeared sick. The diagnosis of low-pathogenic avian flu was confirmed by a lab in Iowa.

                        The outbreak was made public Friday, and state agriculture officials said then that the strain was a low-pathogenic version of bird flu, meaning it posed little risk to humans and only low mortality risk to chickens. Different strains of low-pathogenic bird flu were found in Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

                        The strain was reclassified as highly contagious and highly pathogenic after genetic testing on one of the birds during the weekend, DeHaven said. He said more testing would continue to determine the potency of the virus, known as an H5N2 virus. The strain that jumped to humans in Asia is known as the H5N1 virus.

                        Birds from the Gonzales farm had been sent to the Houston live-bird markets, and preliminary testing showed that the disease was found there, he said.

                        Bob Hillman, a state veterinarian, said one of those markets was found to have about 20 live ducks, which were destroyed.

                        The other market had no live poultry when agriculture officials arrived, but some slaughtered birds there were being tested, he said.

                        Michalke said Monday that officials did not know whether the Gonzales birds got the disease from Houston and brought it back to Gonzales County.
                        The Photon

                        Comment

                        • mrmarket
                          Administrator
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5971

                          #13
                          Re: chock'n my chicken

                          Originally posted by The Photon
                          Highly contagious strain of bird flu found in Texas
                          Disease is riskier than first thought for chickens, but little apparent threat to humans
                          ADVERTISEMENT


                          Ernie: Sanderson farms is 100mi east, near college station- bad luck,



                          By T.A. Badger

                          ASSOCIATED PRESS

                          Tuesday, February 24, 2004

                          GONZALES -- A strain of avian influenza found on a South Texas chicken farm is considered far deadlier to poultry than originally thought and has spread to live bird markets in Houston, federal officials said Monday.
                          My take on this is that a lot more chickens are being tested and, as a result, a lot more will be found to have been infected. I'd bet that this stuff has been around for years but no one ever bothered to test for it. Next thing they'll say is that Al Quaida wants to poison all Americans by infecting our chickens.

                          With regard to how this affects SAFM's stock.... As long as people are continuing to eat chicken, SAFM will continue to make money. How many of you stopped eating beef after the mad cow scare? Mad cow disease is actually harmful to humans..this avian flu is not.

                          I'm having chicken for lunch today, as a matter of fact.

                          earnings earnings earnings
                          =============================

                          I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                          - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                          Comment

                          • jiesen
                            Senior Member
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 5320

                            #14
                            SAFM

                            Yep, chicken for me too. Heck, everyone here was eating chicken for lunch today!

                            So SAFM shook off the scare today, maybe it's just the 24 hour bird flu. I hope (and bet) that they continue to shake these scares off at least until we get our 15%.

                            It's nice to see my $$MM port up 0.5% today on a down day. Go SSNC! I'm now with you 100% as I bought PTSI today in expectation of a good earnings announcement. I was with you from WSB and picked up CHKE at about your cost when I noticed I was wearing their shirt, though I know it isn't as HUGE as yours is...

                            Keep on keeping on, $$MM.

                            P.S. Here's some chicken humor to lighten things up a bit during this 'crisis'...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I just bought SAFM at 35.69, and I'm about to go get a HUGE chicken kabob for lunch.

                              Comment

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