Presindential elections and the stock market

[mimo_100]

From Kiplinger

S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60
October 31, 2016 ====> ???????
current August 3 2016 =======> 2,163.79

A political crystal ball. Election results may not be so great at predicting stock market returns, but the converse is not the case. It turns out that the stock market has an uncanny ability to predict who will call the White House home for the next four years. If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.

The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In seven of eight elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. Exceptions to this correlation occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. According to Stack, the S&P 500 has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election.

Read more at http://www.kiplinger.com/article/inv...fiw6b2oBaQB.99

[Karel]

From Kiplinger

[...] The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, [...]

Rap Kiplinger over the knuckles. 22 data points don’t make for “compelling statistics”.

[Louetta]

Rap Kiplinger over the knuckles. 22 data points don’t make for “compelling statistics”.

It might also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Things are bad so the market tanks and they kick the bums out. But they kick the bums out because things are bad, the market tanking is just another manifestation of things being bad.

[Karel]

It might also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Things are bad so the market tanks and they kick the bums out. But they kick the bums out because things are bad, the market tanking is just another manifestation of things being bad.

It certainly is plausible. But plausible is a long way from compelling. It would be fun to see how things work out this time. An unguided missile like Trump could upset any plausibility.

[mimo_100]

It certainly is plausible. But plausible is a long way from compelling. It would be fun to see how things work out this time. An unguided missile like Trump could upset any plausibility.

It would be compelling if it actually did happen as it has in the past. Perhaps with certitude and conviction, the results may in fact eventuate before November.

[mimo_100]

S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60

current August 3 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,163.79
current August 10 2016 10:40 AM =======> 2,180.30
October 31, 2016 ====> ???????

From Kiplinger

A political crystal ball. Election results may not be so great at predicting stock market returns, but the converse is not the case. It turns out that the stock market has an uncanny ability to predict who will call the White House home for the next four years. If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.

The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In seven of eight elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. Exceptions to this correlation occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. According to Stack, the S&P 500 has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election.

[billyjoe]

Political cartoon: 2 pigs at the starting line, one has the face of Trump, the other, Clinton. Uncle Sam holds the starters gun ...............to his head.

--------------billy

[mimo_100]

From Kiplinger

"If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party."

S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60

current September 9 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,127.81

October 31, 2016 ====> ???????

[blindsquirrel]

Political cartoon: 2 pigs at the starting line, one has the face of Trump, the other, Clinton. Uncle Sam holds the starters gun ...............to his head.

--------------billy

Oh such a good image of what this election feels like!

[mimo_100]

From Kiplinger

"If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party."

S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60

September 30 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,168.27

October 31, 2016 ====> ???????

[mimo_100]

From Kiplinger

"If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party."

S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60

October 24 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,151.33

October 31, 2016 ====> ???????

[mimo_100]

From Kiplinger

"If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party."

S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60

October 24 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,151.33

October 31, 2016 4:00 PM ======> 2,126.15

[blindsquirrel]

It certainly was a dramatic election! I suppose the markets were down leading up to the election, so you could say it worked again.

[Karel]

It certainly was a dramatic election! I suppose the markets were down leading up to the election, so you could say it worked again.

We could. Especially if we succeed in forgetting what made the markets so blue this time. The fact that the world is still more or less as we knew it seems to be a big relief, witness the bounce.

[billyjoe]

I wouldn't have believed it a week ago or even 2 days ago, but my retirement accounts reached an all time high today for the first time since Sept. 22nd. No new money added in last 10 years.

----------------billy