MPX ==> The Deck The Halls Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    MPX ==> The Deck The Halls Winner

    Once when I was younger I was fishing on Picture Lake in Pocasset. As I was concentrating on catching my next prize, some kid came walking up behind me:

    · “Whose boat?”
    · “I don’t know.”
    · “Whose boat?”
    · “I don’t know.”
    · “Can I take a ride in it?”

    Some things go beyond explanation. The other thing I didn’t understand was why people would want to buy a boat in the first place. I don’t own a boat, but I have heard the two best days of a boat owner’s life is the day he buys his boat followed by the day he sells it. But while you own it, this could be you:





    Having said all that, today I bought stock in MPX (Marine Products Corporation) at 13.73. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 15.86. Here’s why I like MPX:


    First of all, you have to admire this remarkable chart:





    Look at that 200 day moving average…it looks like the bunny slope at Killington which I just fell down on today. This stock is up 130% in the last 12 months and it pays a nice 1.7% dividend. That’s a lot better than you’ll do in your savings account.
    Marine Products Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells recreational fiberglass powerboats for the sportboat, deckboat, cruiser, sport yacht, jet boat, and sport fishing markets worldwide. It provides Chaparral sterndrive pleasure boats, including SSi and SSX sportboats, Sunesta sportdecks, Signature cruisers, SunCoast sportdeck outboards, Vortex Jet Boats, and Robalo outboard sport fishing boats, as well as H2O Sport, and Fish and Ski boats. The company sells its products to a network of 147 domestic and 85 international independent authorized dealers. Marine Products Corporation was founded in 1965 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

    Marine Products Corporation is one of the largest manufacturer of stern drive powerboats in the United States and holds a 14.4% market share. Marine Products Corporation has been manufacturing high-quality powerboats for over 50 years. The boating market is a mature market with $35.4 billion in annual retail sales. Even with this industry size, the majority of recreational boat manufacturers are small companies with limited geographic markets. MPX beats them because it has national scale and reach. Chaparral is the largest manufacturer of sterndrive boats in the 18’ to 33’ range. With premium brands and a solid capital structure, Marine Products Corporation is prepared to capitalize on opportunities to increase its market share and to generate superior financial performance to build long-term shareholder value.

    Interest rates are still low and if you can’t afford a boat, who cares? You can finance it. Don’t worry, those manufacturing jobs are coming back (well at least people believe that they are). So even if you don’t have a job, you can still have a boat. Retail sales are improving following the 2008 – 2009 downturn. Improved consumer confidence, real estate and lower fuel prices are macro catalysts. The market for recreational boats is growing at a healthy 7–10% rate, supported by increasing disposable income and retirements.

    The MPX 16-foot Robalo is a new product offering for the first-time boater as well as more experienced anglers. The Robalo R160 offers the same features and quality found in their larger Robalo models, but at a nationally advertised price of under $20,000. Remember, even if your salary is $20,000 a year, you can own a boat. Finance it!

    Speaking of finance, MPX has some rocking financials:

    For the quarter ended September 30, 2016, Marine Products generated net sales of $55,361,000, a 17.7 percent increase, compared to $47,038,000 in the same period of the prior year. The increase in net sales was due primarily to a 12.5 percent increase in unit sales and a 1.7 percent increase in the average selling price per boat. Net income for the quarter ended September 30, 2016 was $4,284,000, an increase of $1,181,000 or 38.1 percent, compared to net income of $3,103,000 for the third quarter of 2015. Diluted earnings per share were $0.11 in the third quarter of 2016, an increase of $0.03 per share compared to the third quarter of the prior year.

    Net sales for the nine months ended September 30, 2016 were $184,092,000, an increase of 17.1 percent compared to the first nine months of 2015. Net income for the nine-month period was $13,023,000 or $0.34 diluted earnings per share, compared to net income of $10,461,000, or $0.28 diluted earnings per share in the prior year.

    It’s obvious from these numbers that people are feeling better about what’s going on around them. America doesn’t have to get great again. It’s already great. Everyone who wants a boat can buy one. Residential real estate, especially in several important recreational boating areas, has stabilized. Consumer confidence and residential real estate continue to improve, and the financing environment for both dealers and consumers remains stable. Consumers continue to go boating in large numbers, and the company has always believed in the longterm future of their business.

    If you dig deeper into the management performance of this company, you see some good things. Even though the PE today is a little inflated at 31, based on the projected earnings growth the forward PE is projected to come into line at 22. For fiscal year 2017, ANAL-ysts estimate that MPX's earnings per share will grow by 26% to $0.63. That’s why it’s such a good deal now.
    Management Effectiveness is illuminated by its Return on Assets of 12% and Return on Equity of 18%. These are all really good, but what really floats my boat when I analyze this company is its incredibly squeaky clean balance sheet. That’s right – it has zero long term debt. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

    You know what happens when a company has positive growing earnings, solid market share and zero debt? You get pirates circling this boating company like salivating sharks. That’s right – it’s takeover bait. Why?

    When a company has a clean balance sheet, the corporate raider can leverage up and buy the company and use the acquired company’s squeaky clean balance sheet to lower its own debt to equity ratio after the takeover . It’s financial alchemy. A signature move by private equity investors is to use only some of their own equity in a takeover and finance the remainder of the deal with debt. As long as the company being acquired is generating cash flow, it can service, or pay, that debt, which means that the private equity firm does not need to reach into its own pockets for the entire deal. When it comes time to sell the company, the private equity's profits are that much greater. Companies that are generating ongoing cash flow make attractive takeover candidates for private equity firms as a result. But you don’t get this good fortune for nothing. Any takeover play on MPX would mean that the stock price would go up up up up. It would go up well past my target price. Yes, debt capacity can be a wonderful thing.

    Here’s what the boating boss had to say. Even though his name is Hubbell, he did not invent the Hubbell telescope. But he’s still a smart guy:

    Richard A. Hubbell, Marine Products' President and Chief Executive Officer stated, "Our third quarter financial results reflect a strong retail selling season and the continued popularity of our product offerings. The trends of the last several quarters continued with strong sales of our Robalo outboard sport fishing boats, particularly the Robalo 180 and 246 models, as well as our SunCoast outboards and Vortex Jet Boats. Within our Chaparral sterndrive offerings, several of our SSX models also sold well compared to the prior year.

    "We held our annual dealer conference during the third quarter, and observed that our dealers continue to be enthusiastic about the recreational boating market as well as our 2017 models. We are particularly enthusiastic regarding the Chaparral Surf Series, which we will soon be introducing to our dealers and customers. At the end of the third quarter, our order backlog was significantly higher than at the end of the third quarter of 2015, and field inventories were higher than the prior year but lower than at the end of the second quarter. We have increased production at the beginning of the fourth quarter in response to these indications of demand and in preparation for the 2017 winter boat show season," concluded Hubbell.

    So with the money I make on this MPX trade, I can go out and buy a boat and go fishing. I’ll probably only catch perch.

    I am HUGE!
    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    www.mrmarketishuge.com
    Last edited by mrmarket; 02-25-2017, 12:12 AM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • Louetta
    Senior Member
    • Oct 2003
    • 2331

    #2
    Killington! Glad you made it to New England. Good luck with the stock.

    Comment

    • tiedyed1
      Senior Member
      • Jun 2009
      • 599

      #3
      I did not expect MPX and wish you the best on it!

      The colorful tiedyed1 here has lived many lives and before he was a mortgage pro he was in the marine industry for 20 years (including a yacht broker in Montauk, NY, however, I left that industry in 1991 thanks to George H.W. Bush's 'Luxury Tax' which decimated that industry). I admittedly have a personal bias that is going to keep me on the sidelines on this pick for now. (Going to the NY Boat Show (1/25-29) and will chat with a few manufacturers to see if my sentiment has changed.)

      I truly hope you get your 15% promptly and wish everyone a Happy New Year! See you in 2017!

      -Adam

      Comment

      • billyjoe
        Senior Member
        • Nov 2003
        • 9014

        #4
        Mr.Market, I get seasick and don't know if I'll buy the stock but you've convinced me to buy a boat. I'll park it in the side yard to impress the neighbors.

        --------------billy

        Comment

        • riverbabe
          Senior Member
          • May 2005
          • 3373

          #5
          I also have a personal bias against boat stocks, for reasons which would certainly not be of interest to anyone here. But I wish you best of luck with it!

          Comment

          • jiesen
            Senior Member
            • Sep 2003
            • 5319

            #6
            Well, I like this boat stock much better than the other boat stock (KNOP is a nope) and am happily getting in this one with you, $$MM, right here at $14. See you at $16 with lots of meats and cheeses in this most excellent New Year!

            Comment

            • tiedyed1
              Senior Member
              • Jun 2009
              • 599

              #7
              Originally posted by jiesen View Post
              Well, I like this boat stock much better than the other boat stock (KNOP is a nope) and am happily getting in this one with you, $$MM, right here at $14. See you at $16 with lots of meats and cheeses in this most excellent New Year!
              Many times I see great potential in more than one top five and will start a position. KNOP is one of them and is up over 6.00% since hitting the Top Five and no slouch either.
              1/5: oh well, KNOP just announced an offering and back down 6%... did not see that coming but guess the Mr.Market mojo did!

              Looking for a round of finest meats and cheeses for all!
              Last edited by tiedyed1; 01-05-2017, 08:31 AM.

              Comment

              • Risky
                Junior Member
                • Oct 2003
                • 14

                #8
                I know UR not a worrier Mr. Fabulous, however, I am....Do you have any comments on the stock drop, other than the obvious earrings report?
                Will you average down or just hold?

                Comment

                • Karel
                  Administrator
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 2199

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Risky View Post
                  I know UR not a worrier Mr. Fabulous, however, I am....Do you have any comments on the stock drop, other than the obvious earrings report?
                  Will you average down or just hold?
                  I am not the HUGE one, but I sure am a dedicated follower. The money I invest and how I invest is my own respnsability, blablabla, you know the routine. I hold MPX. Like the HUGE one, I am not a worrier, even if the $$$Mr. Market$$$ stocks currently in my portfolio now stand at an average loss of some 28%. That is after selling CNNX, of course, which caused the average to dip a bit. And that is the point. If I count my losses in the stocks I still hold, I might become sad. But they are more than offset (2.5 times to be exact) by the realized gains I see in my portfolio. That is the deal: $$$Mr. Market$$$ picks enough winners to more than compensate for the losers. Never buy just one stock and hope for the best. That is never a good idea, and $$$Mr. Market$$$’s picks are no exception.

                  I follow another strategy. Keeping score, in that strategy I have 36 winners (average 12.4%) and 22 losers (average -10.8%), for 58 closed trades total (average +3.6%, average holding period 8-9 weeks). I am a happy camper.

                  Don’t get upset when one stock in your strategy is a lemon. If the strategy as a whole keeps working, you’re fine. I won’t average down. Other people might. MPX earnings are down, so is the stock price. A slump in earnings is a bad sign for a momentum stock, but not necessarily for a value stock. $$$Mr. Market$$$’s picks are a bit of both. Your call. But averaging down is not in the system.

                  And it is early days for MPX. If/when their earnings recover, we will be all right.
                  Last edited by mrmarket; 02-25-2017, 12:39 AM.
                  My Investopedia portfolio
                  (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

                  Comment

                  • jiesen
                    Senior Member
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 5319

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Karel View Post
                    I am not the HUGE one, but I sure am a dedicated follower. The money I invest and how I invest is my own respnsability, blablabla, ...

                    And it is early days for MPX. If/when their earnings recover, we will be all right.
                    And All Right we are... MPX is within spitting distance of the finish line now, and came within a dime of it earlier today! We should see over $16.00 for this one within a week, I think.

                    Comment

                    • Karel
                      Administrator
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 2199

                      #11
                      Originally posted by jiesen View Post
                      And All Right we are... MPX is within spitting distance of the finish line now, and came within a dime of it earlier today! We should see over $16.00 for this one within a week, I think.
                      ... aaaaand across the line!

                      $$$Mr. Market$$$ is HUGE ! ! !
                      My Investopedia portfolio
                      (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

                      Comment

                      • mrmarket
                        Administrator
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5971

                        #12
                        A very good day indeed
                        =============================

                        I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                        - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                        Comment

                        • jiesen
                          Senior Member
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 5319

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Karel View Post
                          ... aaaaand across the line!

                          $$$Mr. Market$$$ is HUGE ! ! !
                          yep, my limit order triggered at 15.9, so I sold half there. I think I we'll see it close over 16 very soon, and was holding out for a little more on the rest...

                          Comment

                          • billyjoe
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2003
                            • 9014

                            #14
                            That works out to just about 92% winners. 78 of 85 positions including those still open. Ever seen a better documented result?

                            -----------billy

                            Comment

                            • mrmarket
                              Administrator
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 5971

                              #15
                              Originally posted by billyjoe View Post
                              That works out to just about 92% winners. 78 of 85 positions including those still open. Ever seen a better documented result?

                              -----------billy
                              No one believes it when I tell them.
                              =============================

                              I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                              - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                              Comment

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