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It just doesn’t get any better for $$$MR. MARKET$$$. Next week I am going on vacation and I just paid for my trip. There will be Johnny Walked Blue for all my friends! Yesterday I sold WD at 51.57. That was a 29% gain over my purchase price of 40.13 back on February 24, 2017. Over the same period, the S&P 500 was up 1%.
I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses for I am the greatest stock picker in the land. How can this even be debated?
The WD trade had an annualized gain of 153%. Ha Ha HA! It’s just raining monies. Give me monies. 10,000 quatloops for the earthling.
That makes 74 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How do you like me now? Come on tell me. Just how HUGE is $$$MR. MARKET$$$?
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ was once on American Idol. He won using sign language.
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ likes his meat so rare, he only eats unicorns.
· Santa Claus was real, until he forgot $$$MR. MARKET$$$’s present.
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ once ate a Rubix cube and it came out the other end solved.
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ once dug a hole with a spoon, now it’s the Grand Canyon.
Now you can sit here and think that investing is so complicated. I don’t know what’s so complicated about 74 consecutive winners. It seems pretty easy to me. So now I must ask one last question…
Do ya want to see another pick? Well….do ya???
I am HUGE!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
================================================== ===================================
02-24-2017, 11:14 PM
WD ==> The Replacements Winner
($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
For Christmas, my son Fuffrey gave me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue. Now the bottle sits in my office and every time I make a great stock pick, I take a nip of the Blue. I find it ironic that Johnny Walker is celebrating my winning stock trades because my next winning pick is a company named Walker & Dunlop (ticker WD).
Today I bought WD at 40.13. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 46.23.
Here’s why I love WD:
First off, take a close look at this chart…….
WD’s stock price has rocketed up 71% in the last 12 months. While 71% on its own is nothing to sneeze at, what is more remarkable is that this stock trades at a PE of less than 11. The PE ratio for the S&P 500 compares in at about 19.8. Further, the stock’s PE also compares favorably with the broader Finance sector’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 15.9. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now, compared to its peers. That’s an incredible value for a money machine that does everything the right way. Speaking of value, Walker & Dunlop has a Price/Sales ratio of about 1.65. This compares favorably with the S&P 500 average, which stands at 2.84 right now
This is the best company you’ve never heard of. Walker & Dunlop, Inc., through its subsidiaries, originates, sells, and services a range of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products for owners and developers of real estate in the United States. Founded in 1937, the Company went public in 2010. Walker & Dunlop provides customized financing solutions to owners and operators of commercial real estate properties across the United States and is one of the largest commercial real estate lenders in the country. Walker & Dunlop was the country’s 8th largest commercial/multifamily mortgage servicer in 2016.
The Company originates commercial real estate loans for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, and its on-balance sheet lending program and brokers loans to life insurance companies, banks, CMBS originators, and other capital providers. Walker & Dunlop also provides investment advisory and brokerage services in the multifamily sector through its investment sales platform, Walker & Dunlop Investment Sales.
Walker & Dunlop provides a broad range of financing solutions for every type of commercial real estate asset, including short term bridge, as well as investment sales services for multifamily properties. Freddie Mac estimates that from 2017-2019 at least $300 billion of multifamily financing is expected each year. Walker & Dunlop’s national scale and reputation positions it well to capitalize on this growing market opportunity.
As the #2 Fannie Mae lender and the #3 Freddie Mac Multifamily Approved Seller/Servicer in the country in 2016 and a top 10 HUD lender, Walker & Dunlop has impressive scale and market presence in the multifamily space, which continues to create momentum for taking additional market share and gaining access to a broader client base.
The Company has laid out its short and long term growth strategy, which aims to grow revenues to $1 billion by the end of 2020. This includes, growth and expansion of the current platform, as well as launching an asset management platform.
The U.S. continues to shift further towards a renter nation, and multifamily has become the largest asset class in commercial real estate mortgage debt outstanding at over $1 trillion. As one of the top multi-family lenders in the country, WD has a tremendous opportunity for continued growth in the coming years.
The company’s strong liquidity and a sturdy top line position it well for the future. Moreover, improving loan balances are expected to support revenue growth in the quarters ahead. Walker & Dunlop has done an excellent job of capitalizing on opportunities in commercial and multifamily real estate over time.
Earnings Per Share Growth: Walker & Dunlop has witnessed 24.1% growth in EPS (compared with 1.4% for the industry), over the last three to five years. Walker & Dunlop’s total revenue has increased at a CAGR of 21.1%, over the last three years (2013–2015). Walker & Dunlop’s ROE of 16.5% compares favorably with the industry average of 5.1%.
Walker & Dunlop's fourth-quarter results were awesome. Revenue soared to $178.4 million, climbing by nearly half from year-ago levels and more than doubling the growth pace that investors were expecting. Net income exploded higher, rising more than 80% to $36.8 million, and that worked out to earnings of $1.16 per share. The consensus forecast was just $0.74 per share, showing the extent to which Walker & Dunlop is killing it.
FOURTH QUARTER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
· Total revenues of $178.4 million, up 47% from Q4'15
· Net income of $36.8 million, or $1.16 per diluted share, up 80% from Q4'15
· Adjusted EBITDA1 of $34.6 million, up 19% from Q4'15
· Total transaction volume of $6.3 billion, up 34% from Q4'15
FULL YEAR 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
· Total revenues of $575.3 million, up 23% over 2015
· Net income of $113.9 million or $3.65 per diluted share, up 39% over 2015
· Total transaction volume of $19.3 billion, up 9% over 2015
· Operating Margin of 32% compared to 29% in 2015
· Mortgage servicing rights produced gains of $65 million, which was 80% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2015. Loan origination fees were up by nearly a third. Total transaction volume soared 34% to
$6.3 billion, and loan origination volume climbed by more than a fifth to $5.3 billion.
Walker & Dunlop also believes that 2017's prospects are bright. The company has boosted the number of mortgage bankers and investment sales brokers it has on staff by 29% since the first quarter of 2016. Obviously they wouldn’t be hiring if they didn’t have a backlog of work to be done and revenues to capture. They expect strong market conditions again in 2017. Based on Freddie Mac's most recent estimates, the multifamily market should continue to grow in 2017 and beyond. In addition, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enter the year with no change to their caps and the ability to do as much qualifying affordable leading as possible.
The company also passed a reauthorization of share repurchases of up to $75 million over the next 12 months.
OPERATING MARGIN was 34% for the fourth quarter 2016, up from 28% for the fourth quarter 2015. The increase in operating margin was driven by the scale of our transaction and servicing platform and efficient operation of the business, which drove total revenues up 47%, while total expenses grew only 34%.
NET INCOME was $36.8 million, or $1.16 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter 2016 compared to net income of $20.4 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter 2015. The 80% increase in net income was driven by increased gains from mortgage banking activities and growth in servicing fees, partially offset by increases in personnel costs and amortization and depreciation.
ANNUALIZED RETURN ON EQUITY was 25% for the fourth quarter 2016, up from 17% for the fourth quarter 2015.
Earnings per Share of $3.65 grew 38% year on year, the third straight year of earnings growth in excess of 30%. WD has built a solid track record of delivering strong growth and above average returns since going public in 2010 by effectively deploying capital and managing the business with a disciplined and focused approach all while maintaining our entrepreneurial spirit and culture. Their long-term return on equity target remains in the mid-to-high to high teens. Since their IPO, the compound annual growth rate of all of WD’s major financial metrics have exceeded 30%. WD has grown EPS at a 37% compound annual growth rate since going public and there is no reason to expect anything below 10% earnings growth for this Company until we see a material change in the macro economy.
The outlook is eggsellent. Most of the bankers and brokers the company added last year did not materially contribute to their 2016 performance, so their impact on our growth is yet to come. As their transaction volume revenues have grown, their costs have not , meaning a lot of this new revenue will flow to the bottom line. WD’s operating margin has expanded from 23% in 2014 to 32% this past year. Revenue growth and margin expansion have produced a 44% compound annual growth rate for EPS over that same three-year period.
Freddie Mac projects $300 billion of multifamily financing activity in 2017, up from an expected $282 billion in 2016. Private equity firms are sitting on tons of money that needs to be invested in commercial real
estate, over 200 billion dollars worth. Multifamily remains the largest, most stable and most desirable commercial real estate asset class for institutional investors and that is right in Walker & Dunlop’s sweet spot. WD has originated over $1 billion of interim loans in the last four years without a single credit loss. They sound like $$$MR. MARKET$$$!!
Half of their 10 largest clients over the last three years were new to Walker and Dunlop. They are killing their competition…running them over like a steamroller on a cockroach.
Here’s the playbook for success:
· Expect to grow diluted earnings per share by over 10%
· Targeting an operating margin in the range of 27% to 33%
· Expect to deliver return on equity in the mid-to-high teens
CEO and Chairman Willy Walker was ecstatic about the company's results. "Walker & Dunlop's growth and financial performance continue to outpace the market by broad margins," Walker said, and the company is doing a great job of "creating new growth opportunities and generating fantastic financial performance."
"This was the second consecutive year adding $1.00 or more in EPS, reflective of the highly profitable business model that underpins Walker & Dunlop's growth. Over the past three years, our origination volumes have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 26%, twice the rate of the commercial real estate financing market, resulting in annual growth in revenues and earnings of 22% and 40%, respectively. Our team of financing professionals, national platform, well-known brand and loyal client base are building off one another, creating new growth opportunities and generating fantastic financial performance."
“Our business plan for the next four years includes three major components: continued growth of our loan origination and investment sales platforms, dramatically scaling our servicing portfolio and building an asset management business. If we execute on our growth initiatives in each of these areas, we will generate over $1 billion in revenues by the end of 2020.”
Well Mr. Walker, with the success of your company, and the success of my stock pick, I will be stocking up on Johnny Walker BLUE for years to come.
I am HUGE!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses for I am the greatest stock picker in the land. How can this even be debated?
The WD trade had an annualized gain of 153%. Ha Ha HA! It’s just raining monies. Give me monies. 10,000 quatloops for the earthling.
That makes 74 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How do you like me now? Come on tell me. Just how HUGE is $$$MR. MARKET$$$?
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ was once on American Idol. He won using sign language.
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ likes his meat so rare, he only eats unicorns.
· Santa Claus was real, until he forgot $$$MR. MARKET$$$’s present.
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ once ate a Rubix cube and it came out the other end solved.
· $$$MR. MARKET$$$ once dug a hole with a spoon, now it’s the Grand Canyon.
Now you can sit here and think that investing is so complicated. I don’t know what’s so complicated about 74 consecutive winners. It seems pretty easy to me. So now I must ask one last question…
Do ya want to see another pick? Well….do ya???
I am HUGE!!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
================================================== ===================================
02-24-2017, 11:14 PM
WD ==> The Replacements Winner
($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
For Christmas, my son Fuffrey gave me a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue. Now the bottle sits in my office and every time I make a great stock pick, I take a nip of the Blue. I find it ironic that Johnny Walker is celebrating my winning stock trades because my next winning pick is a company named Walker & Dunlop (ticker WD).
Today I bought WD at 40.13. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 46.23.
Here’s why I love WD:
First off, take a close look at this chart…….
WD’s stock price has rocketed up 71% in the last 12 months. While 71% on its own is nothing to sneeze at, what is more remarkable is that this stock trades at a PE of less than 11. The PE ratio for the S&P 500 compares in at about 19.8. Further, the stock’s PE also compares favorably with the broader Finance sector’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 15.9. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now, compared to its peers. That’s an incredible value for a money machine that does everything the right way. Speaking of value, Walker & Dunlop has a Price/Sales ratio of about 1.65. This compares favorably with the S&P 500 average, which stands at 2.84 right now
This is the best company you’ve never heard of. Walker & Dunlop, Inc., through its subsidiaries, originates, sells, and services a range of multifamily and other commercial real estate financing products for owners and developers of real estate in the United States. Founded in 1937, the Company went public in 2010. Walker & Dunlop provides customized financing solutions to owners and operators of commercial real estate properties across the United States and is one of the largest commercial real estate lenders in the country. Walker & Dunlop was the country’s 8th largest commercial/multifamily mortgage servicer in 2016.
The Company originates commercial real estate loans for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD, and its on-balance sheet lending program and brokers loans to life insurance companies, banks, CMBS originators, and other capital providers. Walker & Dunlop also provides investment advisory and brokerage services in the multifamily sector through its investment sales platform, Walker & Dunlop Investment Sales.
Walker & Dunlop provides a broad range of financing solutions for every type of commercial real estate asset, including short term bridge, as well as investment sales services for multifamily properties. Freddie Mac estimates that from 2017-2019 at least $300 billion of multifamily financing is expected each year. Walker & Dunlop’s national scale and reputation positions it well to capitalize on this growing market opportunity.
As the #2 Fannie Mae lender and the #3 Freddie Mac Multifamily Approved Seller/Servicer in the country in 2016 and a top 10 HUD lender, Walker & Dunlop has impressive scale and market presence in the multifamily space, which continues to create momentum for taking additional market share and gaining access to a broader client base.
The Company has laid out its short and long term growth strategy, which aims to grow revenues to $1 billion by the end of 2020. This includes, growth and expansion of the current platform, as well as launching an asset management platform.
The U.S. continues to shift further towards a renter nation, and multifamily has become the largest asset class in commercial real estate mortgage debt outstanding at over $1 trillion. As one of the top multi-family lenders in the country, WD has a tremendous opportunity for continued growth in the coming years.
The company’s strong liquidity and a sturdy top line position it well for the future. Moreover, improving loan balances are expected to support revenue growth in the quarters ahead. Walker & Dunlop has done an excellent job of capitalizing on opportunities in commercial and multifamily real estate over time.
Earnings Per Share Growth: Walker & Dunlop has witnessed 24.1% growth in EPS (compared with 1.4% for the industry), over the last three to five years. Walker & Dunlop’s total revenue has increased at a CAGR of 21.1%, over the last three years (2013–2015). Walker & Dunlop’s ROE of 16.5% compares favorably with the industry average of 5.1%.
Walker & Dunlop's fourth-quarter results were awesome. Revenue soared to $178.4 million, climbing by nearly half from year-ago levels and more than doubling the growth pace that investors were expecting. Net income exploded higher, rising more than 80% to $36.8 million, and that worked out to earnings of $1.16 per share. The consensus forecast was just $0.74 per share, showing the extent to which Walker & Dunlop is killing it.
FOURTH QUARTER 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
· Total revenues of $178.4 million, up 47% from Q4'15
· Net income of $36.8 million, or $1.16 per diluted share, up 80% from Q4'15
· Adjusted EBITDA1 of $34.6 million, up 19% from Q4'15
· Total transaction volume of $6.3 billion, up 34% from Q4'15
FULL YEAR 2016 HIGHLIGHTS
· Total revenues of $575.3 million, up 23% over 2015
· Net income of $113.9 million or $3.65 per diluted share, up 39% over 2015
· Total transaction volume of $19.3 billion, up 9% over 2015
· Operating Margin of 32% compared to 29% in 2015
· Mortgage servicing rights produced gains of $65 million, which was 80% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2015. Loan origination fees were up by nearly a third. Total transaction volume soared 34% to
$6.3 billion, and loan origination volume climbed by more than a fifth to $5.3 billion.
Walker & Dunlop also believes that 2017's prospects are bright. The company has boosted the number of mortgage bankers and investment sales brokers it has on staff by 29% since the first quarter of 2016. Obviously they wouldn’t be hiring if they didn’t have a backlog of work to be done and revenues to capture. They expect strong market conditions again in 2017. Based on Freddie Mac's most recent estimates, the multifamily market should continue to grow in 2017 and beyond. In addition, both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enter the year with no change to their caps and the ability to do as much qualifying affordable leading as possible.
The company also passed a reauthorization of share repurchases of up to $75 million over the next 12 months.
OPERATING MARGIN was 34% for the fourth quarter 2016, up from 28% for the fourth quarter 2015. The increase in operating margin was driven by the scale of our transaction and servicing platform and efficient operation of the business, which drove total revenues up 47%, while total expenses grew only 34%.
NET INCOME was $36.8 million, or $1.16 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter 2016 compared to net income of $20.4 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter 2015. The 80% increase in net income was driven by increased gains from mortgage banking activities and growth in servicing fees, partially offset by increases in personnel costs and amortization and depreciation.
ANNUALIZED RETURN ON EQUITY was 25% for the fourth quarter 2016, up from 17% for the fourth quarter 2015.
Earnings per Share of $3.65 grew 38% year on year, the third straight year of earnings growth in excess of 30%. WD has built a solid track record of delivering strong growth and above average returns since going public in 2010 by effectively deploying capital and managing the business with a disciplined and focused approach all while maintaining our entrepreneurial spirit and culture. Their long-term return on equity target remains in the mid-to-high to high teens. Since their IPO, the compound annual growth rate of all of WD’s major financial metrics have exceeded 30%. WD has grown EPS at a 37% compound annual growth rate since going public and there is no reason to expect anything below 10% earnings growth for this Company until we see a material change in the macro economy.
The outlook is eggsellent. Most of the bankers and brokers the company added last year did not materially contribute to their 2016 performance, so their impact on our growth is yet to come. As their transaction volume revenues have grown, their costs have not , meaning a lot of this new revenue will flow to the bottom line. WD’s operating margin has expanded from 23% in 2014 to 32% this past year. Revenue growth and margin expansion have produced a 44% compound annual growth rate for EPS over that same three-year period.
Freddie Mac projects $300 billion of multifamily financing activity in 2017, up from an expected $282 billion in 2016. Private equity firms are sitting on tons of money that needs to be invested in commercial real
estate, over 200 billion dollars worth. Multifamily remains the largest, most stable and most desirable commercial real estate asset class for institutional investors and that is right in Walker & Dunlop’s sweet spot. WD has originated over $1 billion of interim loans in the last four years without a single credit loss. They sound like $$$MR. MARKET$$$!!
Half of their 10 largest clients over the last three years were new to Walker and Dunlop. They are killing their competition…running them over like a steamroller on a cockroach.
Here’s the playbook for success:
· Expect to grow diluted earnings per share by over 10%
· Targeting an operating margin in the range of 27% to 33%
· Expect to deliver return on equity in the mid-to-high teens
CEO and Chairman Willy Walker was ecstatic about the company's results. "Walker & Dunlop's growth and financial performance continue to outpace the market by broad margins," Walker said, and the company is doing a great job of "creating new growth opportunities and generating fantastic financial performance."
"This was the second consecutive year adding $1.00 or more in EPS, reflective of the highly profitable business model that underpins Walker & Dunlop's growth. Over the past three years, our origination volumes have increased at a compound annual growth rate of 26%, twice the rate of the commercial real estate financing market, resulting in annual growth in revenues and earnings of 22% and 40%, respectively. Our team of financing professionals, national platform, well-known brand and loyal client base are building off one another, creating new growth opportunities and generating fantastic financial performance."
“Our business plan for the next four years includes three major components: continued growth of our loan origination and investment sales platforms, dramatically scaling our servicing portfolio and building an asset management business. If we execute on our growth initiatives in each of these areas, we will generate over $1 billion in revenues by the end of 2020.”
Well Mr. Walker, with the success of your company, and the success of my stock pick, I will be stocking up on Johnny Walker BLUE for years to come.
I am HUGE!!
$$$MR. MARKET$$$
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