ATHM ==> The Who Winner

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  • mrmarket
    Administrator
    • Sep 2003
    • 5971

    ATHM ==> The Who Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    There’s no place like home:



    Well actually, if you can’t be in your home, then it’s sometimes almost as good if you can be in your car. So it’s either your auto or your home. Autohome? I kind of like that.
    Today I bought stock in ATHM (Autohome Inc) at 49.05. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 56.50. Here’s why I like Autohome.

    First of all, just look at the chart. It just talks to you:



    This stock is up 109% in the last 12 months. It has a trailing PE of only 29. The way earnings are projected, its forward PE is only 19. What makes this stock such a spectacular earnings machine?
    Autohome Inc. is the leading online destination for automobile consumers in China. Its mission is to enhance the car-buying and ownership experience for auto consumers in China. Autohome provides professionally produced and user-generated content, a comprehensive automobile library, and extensive automobile listing information to automobile consumers, covering the entire car purchase and ownership cycle.
    Now, if any of you have thought about buying a used car in the last few years, it’s likely that you went to a website such as cars.com or cargurus.com. Both of them are excellent. You’re sitting at home on your computer and it feels like you’re testdriving the car itself as you compare and shop. In fact, I would never buy a car again without looking at one of these websites first.

    Now let’s spin the globe and go to China. China's vehicle sales jumped 13.7 percent in 2016, the fastest pace in three years. China's auto market, the world's largest, grew to 28 million vehicles in 2016 and will likely climb 5 percent in 2017 to 29.4 million vehicles. Meanwhile in the United States, sales for 2016 set a record of 17.6 million cars and trucks, a slight increase over the 17.5 million vehicles sold the year before…not quite the same growth as China is seeing…not even close. China is killing us!

    So you have the amazing car evaluation websites in the US that are being used for sales that are growing rather slowly. You also have the #1 car evaluation website in China that is tracking an industry of tremendous growth with even more ridiculous growth potential. But in the future, the sky’s the limit because the Chinese automobile market, though still rather young, is already bigger than the U.S. market and has much further to go. Do you smell what the Rock is cooking? Autohome is China’s #1 auto site where individuals can research cars and purchase them online from dealers.

    Autohome (ATHM) is a Chinese stock that came public in December 2013, so even though it’s been trading for a while, you probably have never heard of it. That’s because it’s a Chinese company. Now, owning these stocks does come with risk. You never really know about the numbers they report and just what the heck is going on with their economy. One thing is certain though – they are buying cars like crazy and they love to look at stuff online. Autohome’s business strategy is that it is trying to be center of all automobile info. They essentially have two websites, www.autohome.com.cn and www.che168.com. Don’t go look at them unless you know how to read Chinese. But there are lots of nice pictures of nice cars.

    Autohome’s revenues come mainly from 20,000 car dealers who pay them a vig to help them sell their cars. It’s kind of like how The Tank Tiger gets a small taste from the storage terminals who all love The Tank Tiger immensely. (I bet you can’t wait for THAT IPO!) Autohome also has got the Chinese mobile phone addicts under their thumb – literally. The growth story is amazing.

    This year's expected earnings growth over the prior year, according to ANAL-ysts, is 18.1%, which should ultimately, of course, translate into stock price gains. The ANAL-ysts have an estimated long-term profit growth rate of 37%. The stock sells for around 29 times earnings – this should set off bells and whistles…PE is less than the projected earnings growth. HELLO??? McFly!

    ATHM has a minimum trailing 12 month after tax profit margin of 21.9%. Most good companies have profit margins of 7%. ATHM's free cash flow of $1.96 per share demonstrates that they have plenty of cash for growth. Return on Equity is 22%. ATHM's trailing twelve-month Debt/Equity ratio is 0.00%. That means they are funding their operations entirely through cash flow. The company is already a cash machine ATM…they don’t need no stinking banks!

    There really isn’t much else to tell about this company. Its business model is incredibly simple. You know the business, and you know the story. They are number 1 in a growing market. You can call them Google…you can call them Facebook. No one is taking them out. The more cars that get sold in China, the more money that they make. The proof is in the pudding:

    Revenue 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014
    Total Revenue 857,849 533,444 343,802
    Net Income 176,691 152,558 120,677

    It’s not hard to imagine what comes next. Certainly a stock price of 56.50 is going to be just around the corner. Now, I will most likely never buy a car in China. But if I ever thought about it, I would most certainly go on Autohome’s website. But I have a better idea. With the money I make on this stock trade, maybe I’ll buy a Corvette…..right here. VROOM! VROOM!

    I am HUGE!!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 08-14-2017, 05:43 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$
  • Louetta
    Senior Member
    • Oct 2003
    • 2331

    #2
    Good luck, Mr. Market.

    Comment

    • jiesen
      Senior Member
      • Sep 2003
      • 5319

      #3
      Great writeup, and excellent pick, $$MM!! I'm in with you at 49!

      Comment

      • riverbabe
        Senior Member
        • May 2005
        • 3373

        #4
        Just laid out some college money cash. May have to pass this time. Good luck to all!

        Comment

        • tiedyed1
          Senior Member
          • Jun 2009
          • 599

          #5
          Great pick. I was liking MOMO as a possibility to dip back into China but ATHM is a smarter choice (due to more censorship which will put further strain on Social Networking and companies like MOMO).

          ATHM is the way to play China and I am in!

          Comment

          • Karel
            Administrator
            • Sep 2003
            • 2199

            #6
            I won’t invest in Chinese stocks anytime soon. Censorship is one part of it, but the Big Brother character of the government bothers me. And a person’s interest in cars no doubt will interest Big Brother too.
            My Investopedia portfolio
            (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

            Comment

            • tiedyed1
              Senior Member
              • Jun 2009
              • 599

              #7
              up 5.00% premarket ($52.61)

              5:31 am ET August 9, 2017 (Globe Newswire)
              Net Revenues Increased 13.3% Year-over-Year to RMB1.6 Billion

              Net Income Attributable to Autohome Inc. Increased 49.7% Year-over-Year to RMB517.7 Million


              Mr. Julian Wang, Chief Financial Officer, added, "We delivered another strong quarter with double-digit revenue growth that significantly surpassed our original guidance, and generated a solid 49.7% improvement in profitability year-over-year. I believe this reflects the success of our ongoing efforts to transform Autohome from a content-led vertical media platform to a fully-integrated automotive eco-platform leveraging advanced data and technology. This strategy has created a better user experience, higher quality sales leads, enhanced revenue growth and healthier margins. We will continue to drive growth and profitability throughout the rest of the year by leveraging our unrivaled advantage in media and leads generation to facilitate more meaningful connections and transactions between our targeted consumers and automaker and dealer clients throughout the ownership cycle."

              Comment

              • mimo_100
                Senior Member
                • Sep 2003
                • 1784

                #8
                From my garden, I am going to send along some basil, Better Boy Bush tomatoes, and Hungarian Wax Hot Banana peppers to go along with fresh meats and cheeses and some ice cold Goose Island Honkers Ale. I am up 13.2% at $54 and getting ready to pull the trigger.

                Thank you for the pick Ernie, you are HUGE!
                Tim - Retired Problem Solver

                Comment

                • jiesen
                  Senior Member
                  • Sep 2003
                  • 5319

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Karel View Post
                  I won’t invest in Chinese stocks anytime soon. Censorship is one part of it, but the Big Brother character of the government bothers me. And a person’s interest in cars no doubt will interest Big Brother too.
                  I have lots of qualms with just what just about every company out there does to make money. However, I try not to let those hangups keep me from making money. Just hold your nose and click 'buy'. It works!

                  Comment

                  • tiedyed1
                    Senior Member
                    • Jun 2009
                    • 599

                    #10
                    With tremendous appreciation for the HUGE one I sold ATHM today at $55.55 for >19% gain in 2 weeks! (purchased on 7/27 at 46.65 and I am not a pig when it comes to seeing these type of gains in such short time)

                    HUGE is nowhere near the right word anymore and even the thesaurus does not come up with a worthy adjective.

                    Comment

                    • tiedyed1
                      Senior Member
                      • Jun 2009
                      • 599

                      #11
                      $56.50 has been reached! WHOO HOO MR MARKET.
                      SO HUGE!!!!!

                      Comment

                      • jiesen
                        Senior Member
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 5319

                        #12
                        Originally posted by tiedyed1 View Post
                        $56.50 has been reached! WHOO HOO MR MARKET.
                        SO HUGE!!!!!
                        And I'm out at 56 with my 15%! Thanks for the awesome pick, $$MM!!! You are HUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!

                        Comment

                        • Gary611
                          Senior Member
                          • Jan 2005
                          • 316

                          #13
                          I'm a victim of circumstance, thanks Mr. Market for another winner!
                          this stooge patiently awaits your next one,Nyuk,nyuk.
                          99 percent of Politicians give the rest a bad name.

                          Comment

                          • mrmarket
                            Administrator
                            • Sep 2003
                            • 5971

                            #14
                            Hee hee hee
                            =============================

                            I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

                            - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

                            Comment

                            • say33
                              Junior Member
                              • Jan 2014
                              • 15

                              #15
                              That was a famous pick.

                              Sold my 66 at 57.14. Bought at 49.05.

                              Thanks a lot. Muchas gracias.

                              Comment

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