CACC Sold ==> That is my 76th consecutive winning trade

[say33]

Hi Karel,

I completely agree with you about the difficulty of eliminating or reducing randomness in the metrics of any strategy. Nonetheless, for me, the doubt remains whether 14 is the best allocation number for this strategy with a target of ‘only’ 15% and all the rest.

By the way, the results with a $10,000 cap size is for an initial capital of $25,000.

And, being how I am like,
where it says: and a little more numbers I’m going to give you
it should say: and a few more numbers…

and where it says: here it seems to be a pattern
must say: here there seems to be a pattern.

Now, I can go peacefully

Bye

[mrmarket]

My brain given some time for recovering from all that englishness, let’s try and shake the tree a Little, once again.

First, thanks for all your good wishes.

Karel, when I said to Mr. Market “your compounded portfolio, etc.”, what assumptions might normally be? Always 50% cash (just for beers) or over-invested in Cheeses and Meats companies and under-invested in Dietists and Anal-ysts?

Mr. Market, of course it’s not your actual portfolio, but I can’t accept calling it a fantasy portfolio. It’s a standard portfolio based on all your picks, with your entry and exit prices, and its results, in terms of return and drawdown, are the standard way of evaluating and comparing systems and strategies. Yours, with your own money management, may be much better, but much worse, too.

Saying you have a record breaking number of winners in a row make us all very happy, but says little about what we can expect following your entries. For starters, whether we’ll be beating the market or not.
Your system need numbers, especially so if you don’t follow the mainstream ‘run the winners and cut the losers’. And a little more numbers I’m going to give you, right now.

From 2002 to 2016 - a 15 year period - the rentability of the standard 14 equally weighted Mr. Market portfolio has been 173% plus dividends. That of the S&P500, 93%.
So, the standard portfolio has almost doubled the market return. It beats the market square, but, greedy as we are, maybe we were expecting a little more?

About the impact of the number of positions in the portfolio:
The 14 position portfolio yields 173%, plus dividends.
A 12 position portfolio yields 287%, plus dividends.
A 10 position portfolio yields 502%, plus dividends.
An 8 position portfolio yields 633%, plus dividends.

And if we set a cap size position of $10,000, for possible liquidity issues:
The 14 position portfolio yields 172%, plus dividends.
A 12 position portfolio yields 277%, plus dividends.
A 10 position portfolio yields 445%, plus dividends.
An 8 position portfolio yields 493%, plus dividends.

For sure, one of the reasons for these values is the number of bad picks each portfolio takes or misses, which is random. However, these are big differences and here it seems to be a pattern and something definitively to think about.

I’ve read all your posts from day 1, twice.
In these 15 years, you’ve open 252 positions and reached 14 simultaneous positions 38 times.
Your average number of open positions has been 10.15.

These are my numbers, good and reliable, that I hope, but honest and unbiased, that I know (remember: not knowing well our trades, we shall make them with respect). If you think they are unacceptably wrong, by all means do present yours, but, please, minimally explained or documented. I’ll be glad to be corrected, because I’m here to gain money if possible, not to annoy you or to play games with you.

Cheers.

All I can say is...wow. I never thought that anyone would actually look that far back, including myself. Congrats on your diligence. Frankly, I have never done that analysis myself - however I do know how much money I started with and how much I have now. I started with a very very small amount of money in an IRA and I never added or withdrew any funds to it - so it's pretty easy for me to track my return.

[mimo_100]

Help please!

What does "reached 14 simultaneous positions 38 times" mean?