The Firefly Top 5

[mrmarket]

Here are my 5 favorite stocks from the most recent data dump...I will buy one of these soon:

BOOT CZZ IIPR TPL TTD

Which one do you like? and why??

[BlueWolf]

Let me preface my remarks by saying I’m personally a little apprehensive about taking on new positions until the market has had a chance to digest the outcomes of the G20 summit. Having said that, I think there are some real winners in this group.

BOOT
Revenue/Earnings: Over the last five years, BOOT’s growth has been stellar going from revenue of $402.68M and an EPS of $.54 in FY2015 to $776.85M and an EPS of $1.35 in the recently completed FY2019. The represents a 93% improvement in revenue and a 150% improvement in EPS. On a quarterly basis, revenue is seasonal, but Year-over-Year (YoY), last quarter’s revenue was $193M with an EPS of $.30 compared to $171M with an EPS of $.24 in FY2018. That’s 13% and 25% growth respectively. They beat estimates in four of the last five quarters and met in one. Morningstar has the stock as undervalued.
Pays Dividend: No
Chart: BOOT’s share price started at $19 at the beginning of FY2015 and is currently $33.75, a 78% improvement. It is important to note, however, that while share price rose to a high of $34.43 by the end of FY2015, it subsequently plummeted to a low of $5.2 in 2016 before starting its climb back to mid 2015 levels today. The story over the last year has been similar to the longer term share price story. Share price rose from $23.89 at the beginning of June, 2018 to the current price of $33.75, but not before spiking down to a low of $15.01 last December. I think it’s fair to say that there is a good amount of volatility in this stock’s share price. In the shorter term, BOOT’s share price was in a sideways trend between $26 and $32 from about mid February to mid June before it broke out to current levels. It looks like it is currently in a bit of a very sloppy sideways consolidation, which could provide a reasonably good entry. The stock does look like it wants to move higher from here, but the volatility gives me pause.
My Grade: B+


CZZ
Revenue/Earnings: Over the last five years, CZZ’s growth has been excellent. Revenue and EPS have grown from $8.9B and $.54 in FY2014 to $16.84B and $3.83. That’s 89% and 609% respectively. This fiscal year CZZ is on track for $18.02B in revenue and a $4.20 EPS. Sweet. Last quarter, revenue was $4.72B with an EPS of $.79. That represents solid YoY growth from the same quarter in FY2018 in which revenue was $3.54B with an EPS of $.41. That’s 33% and 93% growth. QoQ growth has been a little more spotty, but each quarter in the last 6 has shown YoY improvement. Morningstar has the stock as fairly valued. This company is based out of Brazil, thus some financial information was harder to come by.
Pays Dividend: Yes
Chart: CZZ’s share price has been in a long term uptrend since 2016. Before that it had been beaten down from a 2013 high of $21.55 to a $2.47 low in early 2016. Since that low, it has risen to the current level of $13.07. In the shorter term, the stock is currently basing after riding a shorter term uptrend that stared in late 2018. On the daily chart, CZZ looks poised to go higher from it’s base, but if you back off and look at the monthly, it looks like it might need a leg down before moving higher. Technically, I’m a little torn on this one, but the revenue and earnings growth push me a little to the bullish side.
My Grade: B


IIPR
Revenue/Earnings: Cannabis industry stock IIPR’s IPO was in late 2017, and public financial records are only available from FY2016. The revenue and earnings growth since then has simply been phenomenal. In 2016, revenue was a mere $320K with an EPS of -$4.56. Two years later, at the end of FY 2018, the numbers were $14.79M and +$.75. For FY2019 they are on track for $18.85M and $.99. It’s not possible to determine EPS growth since they started in negative territory, but in terms of revenue, that’s 579% growth. Granted, these aren’t big revenue numbers compared to the other stocks being considered, but it looks like they’re just getting started. To tell you the truth, I’m going to take a good hard look at this company for my long term portfolio. That’s how impressed I am. Quarterly growth has been unbelievable too. Last quarter they had 133% YoY revenue growth and 267% YOY EPS growth. Morningstar has them as slightly overvalued. One cautionary note: IIPR has exceeded estimates in four of the last eight quarters, but has missed in three. The other quarter they hit exactly. None of the misses seem to have impacted share price very much, however, as the price has been steadily climbing.
Pays Dividend: Yes
Chart: If you look at the monthly chart for IIPR, it looks like a rocket ship taking off. The price has been on the uptick since the IPO and it picked up considerable momentum in 2019. Looking at the daily, share price had been on a slow but steady rise until mid June when it jinked up to current levels. Currently, it looks like IIPR is basing (at the high) in preparation for another leg up. Barring any world shaking news, I see this stock continuing to move higher.
My Grade: A


TPL
Revenue/Earnings: In the prior five years (prior to 2019), TPL’s revenue and earnings growth has been unreal. In FY 2014, revenue was $55.2M with an EPS of $4.14. By FY 2018 those numbers had grown to $299.73 and $26.93 respectively. That revenue growth of 443% and earnings growth of 550%. For FY 2019 they are on track for revenue of $431.03 and an EPS of $39.37. They’re an earner. Quarterly growth has also been spectacular with the last quarter showing YoY revenue growth of 218% and YoY earnings growth of 222%. I was unable to find prior estimates so I couldn’t do a hit/miss report. Morningstar has TPL as fairly valued.
Pays Dividend: Yes
Chart: In terms of long term trends, TPL had been in a protracted uptrend until the mini bear market of late 2018. After jinking down, it slowly crept back up to it’s 2018 highs before settling into a bit of a thrashing pattern. On the daily chart, from late December 2018 to April 2019, TPL was in a nice uptrend. It then formed a bullish base, which broke to the downside after a couple of weeks. It is now in the midst of short term term downtrend having made two lower pivot highs and two lower pivot lows. Growth notwithstanding, this doesn’t look like a good time to enter this stock. I love the revenue/EPS growth story, but the chart pulls me in the opposite direction.
My Grade: B


TTD
Revenue/Earnings: In the prior five FY’s, from 2014 to 2018, TTD’s revenue has grown from $44.55M to $477.29M while EPS has grown from -$1.46 to +$1.92. That’s an astonishing five year revenue growth of 971%. In the last quarter, YoY revenue growth was 41%, although EPS growth was only 5%, the result of the company stepping up its expenditures in both R&D and sales. TTD’s track record versus estimates is phenomenal and is a big reason why the share price has gone up so steadily since its IPO. In the last 11 quarters of reporting earnings, TTD has beaten estimates every single time. This company is built to grow, and I think it has a lot more growth in it. Morningstar has the TTD as slightly overvalued.
Pays Dividend: No
Chart: TTD’s long term monthly chart looks like yet another rocket ship. Since its IPO in late 2016, it has gone from $28.75 to the current price of $231.45, a 705% gain. On the daily chart, the stock seems to have a tendency to base sideways for a while before breaking to the upside, usually because of blowout earnings. It’s currently in a modest pull back from all time highs, flowing with the market. The current pull back could provide a good entry, although I would feel better buying into an uptick. As long as TTD keeps blowing away earnings, the share price is going to soar. Bottom line for me is that I think this company still has lots of growth left in it.
My Grade: A-

[mrmarket]

Bluewolf....great analysis

[billyjoe]

Mr.Market, These are the highest priced top 5 in your history.

CZZ--earnings trending down, price trending up, great P/E vs. peers

TPL--undervalued despite high price, best earnings of the group, earnings trending up

TTD---appears overvalued, earnings trending up

BOOT--earnings and price in big uptrend

IIPR--most stable of the group, and being a cannabis stock paying a 2% div., impressive! 2nd rated of 220 marijuana stocks



--------------------billy