The Chambers Street Top 5

[mrmarket]

Here are my five favorites from my most recent data dump:

ESNT IIPR PUMP TPL TTD

which one do you like? and why???

[billyjoe]

ESNT---undervalued, great earnings trend in a strong sector. .97 PEG


IIPR----very stable, 1st of 220 stocks in its industry, upward price trend, seems to be consolidating, pays almost 2% dividend


PUMP---undervalued great EPS trend, low PEG of .82, my favorite ,clean fundamentals


TPL-----best earnings of group, 2nd of 24 in its industry, strong upwards earnings trend


TTD-----very stable, 4th of 31 in industry, great earnings


--------------------billy

[DBeach]

I'm going with IIPR - based on research its outperforming its REIT & Equity Trust sector YTD,
also the Market club site trend analysis is all green with a 100% score (all good buying signals) & Fidelity rating currently 8.7 Bullish. D Beach

[BlueWolf]

I rated IIPR, TPL, and TTD for the recent Firefly Top 5, so I have just cut and pasted my analysis for these three stocks with my grades remaining unchanged.


ESNT
Revenue/Earnings: The earning story for ESNT has been very good. Over the last five years, revenue has grown from $239.47 for FY 2014 to $719.35 for FY 2018. That’s 200% growth with a CAGR of 25%. EPS went from $1.03 to $4.77 in the same period which is even more impressive. Also impressive is the fact that ESNT has beaten estimates in nine of the last 10 quarters. Last quarter continued to show respectable revenue growth at 4% QoQ. EPS, however, declined by 1% QoQ. Still this seems like a somewhat minor hiccup as ESNT booked 20% YoY revenue growth and 15% YoY EPS growth for the same quarter. Morningstar has ESNT as fairly valued.
Pays Dividend: Y
Chart: Like many other strong earners, ESNT started the year in a significant uptrend. In early June, however, the stock starting showing some signs of fatigue. After making an all-time high early in June, the stock challenged but failed to take out that high later in the month following a minor correction. The stock proceeded to take out the prior pivot low before starting again on an upward trajectory that took it back to where it is now, still off it’s all-time highs. The fact that ESNT recently made a lower pivot high and a lower pivot low makes me a little nervous about this stock, and keeps me from endorsing it too enthusiastically.
My Grade: B


IIPR
Revenue/Earnings: Cannabis industry stock IIPR’s IPO was in late 2017, and public financial records are only available from FY2016. The revenue and earnings growth since then has simply been phenomenal. In 2016, revenue was a mere $320K with an EPS of -$4.56. Two years later, at the end of FY 2018, the numbers were $14.79M and +$.75. For FY2019 they are on track for $18.85M and $.99. It’s not possible to determine EPS growth since they started in negative territory, but in terms of revenue, that’s 579% growth. Granted, these aren’t big revenue numbers compared to the other stocks being considered, but it looks like they’re just getting started. To tell you the truth, I’m going to take a good hard look at this company for my long term portfolio. That’s how impressed I am. Quarterly growth has been unbelievable too. Last quarter they had 133% YoY revenue growth and 267% YOY EPS growth. Morningstar has them as slightly overvalued. One cautionary note: IIPR has exceeded estimates in four of the last eight quarters, but has missed in three. The other quarter they hit exactly. None of the misses seem to have impacted share price very much, however, as the price has been steadily climbing.
Pays Dividend: Yes
Chart: If you look at the monthly chart for IIPR, it looks like a rocket ship taking off. The price has been on the uptick since the IPO and it picked up considerable momentum in 2019. Looking at the daily, share price had been on a slow but steady rise until mid June when it jinked up to current levels. Currently, it looks like IIPR is basing (at the high) in preparation for another leg up. Barring any world shaking news, I see this stock continuing to move higher.
My Grade: A


PUMP
Revenue/Earnings: After a bit of a slow start in FY 2015 and FY 2016, oil stock PUMP had a fuse lit under it, quadrupling revenue (from $440M in FY 2016 to $1.7B in FY 201 in just 3 years. EPS went from negative to +$2.00. Growth is slowing in FY 2019 with revenue and EPS on track for $1.87B and $2.25 respectively. Quarterly QoQ revenue declined in the second half of FY 2018 before spiking up in the first quarter of FY 2019. Each quarter in FY 2018 showed significant YoY growth against FY 2017. EPS increased QoQ and YoY in every quarter of FY 2018 and has maintained that trend heading into FY 2019. Performance against estimates has been spotty. Over the last six quarters, PUMP has beat in three quarters and missed in three. Morningstar has PUMP as slightly undervalued.
Pays Dividend: No
Chart: PUMP’s chart, in the large, is somewhat similar to TPL’s. PUMP started the year in a wavy uptrend that lasted until late April, when it rolled over into a downtrend with a lower pivot high and a lower pivot low. As PUMP in still in this downtrend, I would be hesitant to enter it. Currently, PUMP seems to be fading and had a nasty topping tail in its bar at the beginning of last week. All in all, this is the weakest chart of all the candidates.
My Grade: C


TPL
Revenue/Earnings: In the prior five years (prior to 2019), TPL’s revenue and earnings growth has been unreal. In FY 2014, revenue was $55.2M with an EPS of $4.14. By FY 2018 those numbers had grown to $299.73 and $26.93 respectively. That revenue growth of 443% and earnings growth of 550%. For FY 2019 they are on track for revenue of $431.03 and an EPS of $39.37. They’re an earner. Quarterly growth has also been spectacular with the last quarter showing YoY revenue growth of 218% and YoY earnings growth of 222%. I was unable to find prior estimates so I couldn’t do a hit/miss report. Morningstar has TPL as fairly valued.
Pays Dividend: Yes
Chart: In terms of long term trends, TPL had been in a protracted uptrend until the mini bear market of late 2018. After jinking down, it slowly crept back up to it’s 2018 highs before settling into a bit of a thrashing pattern. On the daily chart, from late December 2018 to April 2019, TPL was in a nice uptrend. It then formed a bullish base, which broke to the downside after a couple of weeks. It is now in the midst of short term term downtrend having made two lower pivot highs and two lower pivot lows. Growth notwithstanding, this doesn’t look like a good time to enter this stock. I love the revenue/EPS growth story, but the chart pulls me in the opposite direction.
My Grade: B


TTD
Revenue/Earnings: In the prior five FY’s, from 2014 to 2018, TTD’s revenue has grown from $44.55M to $477.29M while EPS has grown from -$1.46 to +$1.92. That’s an astonishing five year revenue growth of 971%. In the last quarter, YoY revenue growth was 41%, although EPS growth was only 5%, the result of the company stepping up its expenditures in both R&D and sales. TTD’s track record versus estimates is phenomenal and is a big reason why the share price has gone up so steadily since its IPO. In the last 11 quarters of reporting earnings, TTD has beaten estimates every single time. This company is built to grow, and I think it has a lot more growth in it. Morningstar has the TTD as slightly overvalued.
Pays Dividend: No
Chart: TTD’s long term monthly chart looks like yet another rocket ship. Since its IPO in late 2016, it has gone from $28.75 to the current price of $231.45, a 705% gain. On the daily chart, the stock seems to have a tendency to base sideways for a while before breaking to the upside, usually because of blowout earnings. It’s currently in a modest pull back from all time highs, flowing with the market. The current pull back could provide a good entry, although I would feel better buying into an uptick. As long as TTD keeps blowing away earnings, the share price is going to soar. Bottom line for me is that I think this company still has lots of growth left in it.
My Grade: A-