Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[Karel]

Due to technical problems this time I just have a report (and that late), no new picks. Normal service will be resumed next week.

Well, last week the lightning struck. Gone are the positive scores for the year:

QHF: 36.17 (-8.0%; -1.6%)
QHF-: 28.81 (-7.6%; -4.7%)
IWM: 23.16 (-4.8%; -12.7%)
QQQQ: 25.52 (-2.2%; -12.8%)
SPY: 23.97 (-1.0%; -13.6%)

This weeks halls of shame and more shame:
Hall of Fame: AAPL +0.0%, APA -2.9%, ATW -4.1%
Hall of Shame: CLF -15.9%, EXM -15.8%, BUCY -13.8%

OK, see you next week,

Karel

[Karel]

On the chin

Yesterday I saw a loss of -7.2% for my QHF fund, a loss of -5.1% for my baseline fund, QHF-, and a -6.2% loss in real money. I can't remember a day as bad as this one!

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: HIL, DAR, DNR

I am going to proclaim a bear market. My indicator is the number of active threads last week: exactly ten. How long the spell will last? I don't know. Anyway, $$$Mr. Market$$$'s way of stock picking still proves itself, as is shown by the numbers. My fund eked out a positive gain, despite LNN crashing even further down the ravine, and my baseline fund is still positive for the year:

QHF: 36.17 (+0.4%; +7.0%)
QHF-: 31.17 (-3.2%; +3.1%)
IWM: 24.34 (-4.0%; -8.2%)
QQQQ: 26.10 (-3.7%; -10.9%)
SPY: 23.97 (-3.1%; -12.8%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: ATW +13.9%, CLF +10.9%, PBR +6.1%
Hall of Shame: LNN - 11.4%, DNR -6.2%, GGB -4.5%
DNR and PBR "switched halls" compared to last week; LNN continues a rather disastrous slide.

The new Top 3 are HIL, DAR and DNR. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. My decision to keep LNN a bit longer isn't proving a very lucky one, but we'll wait it out a bit more.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold POT, FLS and ARD for an average gain of 14.8%, for a total average of +5.5% over the 131 reported sells. POT gained 22.3%, so now we have 37 stocks that reached 15% or more. This week MTL, LNN and JST will be replaced by FLS, CSIQ and TTES.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, PBR and APA

It is just this report that is a bit late; the "orders" were in before the market opened. The small caps seem to be in favor for some weeks now. And my funds, of course:

QHF: 36.01 (-1.0%; +6.5%)
QHF-: 32.21 (+2.0%; +6.5%)
IWM: 25.35 (-1.0%; -4.4%)
QQQQ: 27.11 (-2.0%; -5.6%)
SPY: 24.74 (-3.3%; -10.0%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: DNR +12.2%, EXM +6.6%, MTL +2.5%
Hall of Shame: LNN -23.2%, SID -5.2%, PBR -3.9%
EXM and LNN "switched halls" compared to last week

The new Top 3 are POT, PBR and APA. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. EXM recovered, but now LNN is in the dumps. It is still early days however, and the drop was on a respectable gain, but LNN missed analyst expectations and its margin seems to be under pressure. I'll stop here before I put my foot in my mouth. We'll keep it a bit longer.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold OFG, CLF and RIMM for an average gain of 9.4%, for a total average of +5.3% over the 128 reported sells. CLF gained 24%, so now we have 36 stocks that reached 15% or more. This week POT, FLS and ARD will be replaced by POT(!), STLD and ATVI.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Karel maybe the qqqq's can break 50 this next time.

Good for them! I think it would not be very good for my funds (and real money portfolio) short term, as they do not seem to be very well correlated to the markets at this time. Not a bad thing actually, right now. But when the markets turn bullish, my portfolios will eventually adjust and bull markets are really fun with $$$Mr. Market$$$'s strategy.

Regards,

Karel

[MotherLoad]

Karel maybe the qqqq's can break 50 this next time.

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, CF, HIL

Again lots of things to do, so again in a bit of a hurry:

QHF: 36.26 (-2.5%; +7.5%)
QHF-: 31.55 (-0.5%; +4.3%)
IWM: 25.61 (-0.8%; -3.4%)
QQQQ: 27.65 (-1.4%; -5.6%)
SPY: 25.59 (-0.1%; -6.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: LNN +7.8%, POT +4.3%, LNN +3.4%
Hall of Shame: EXM -23.2%, RIO -7.7%, AAPL -7.1%

The new Top 3 are POT, CF and HIL. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Of course EXM dropped an awful lot, but it is a rather green pick in the portfolio and still up over 30%.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold PBR, APA and FST for an average gain of 7.9%, for a total average of +5.2% over the 125 reported sells. FST gained 15% or more, now we have 35 stocks that reached 15% or more. This week OFG, CLF and RIMM will be replaced by CF, AGU and CMP.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, PBR and DNR

Lots of things to do, so in a bit of a hurry:

QHF: 37.29 (-0.2%; +10.3%)
QHF-: 31.71 (+0.6%; +4.9%)
IWM: 25.82 (-1.0%; -2.6%)
QQQQ: 28.03 (-2.0%; -4.3%)
SPY: 25.62 (-2.9%; -6.8%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: LNN +11.2%, POT +8.9%, BUCY +6.5%
Hall of Shame: MTL -7.6%, RIO -5.9%, RIG -4.5%

The new Top 3 are POT, PBR and DNR. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Everything is just fine. Boring? I like boring.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold CF, DAR and MA for an average gain of 17.7%, for a total average of +5.1% over the 122 reported sells. DAR and MA gained 15% or more, now we have 34 stocks which reached 15% or more. This week PBR, APA and FST will be replaced by PBR(!), APA(!) and DAR(!). DAR returns after 1 week of absence, in which it went from 16.11 to 16.65. Nobody is perfect.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

[Karel]

New Top 3: MTL, HIL, APWR

Things are still going very well. What can I say? And the small caps (IWM=Russell 2000) are still going strong; almost at break even for the year:

QHF: 37.35 (+2.4%; +10.5%) ***New ATH***
QHF-: 31.54 (+2.9%; +4.3%)
IWM: 26.08 (+3.4%; -1.7%)
QQQQ: 28.59 (+3.7%; -2.4%)
SPY: 26.38 (+2.0%; -4.0%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: MTL +17.1%, CLF +13.8%, LNN +7.2%
Hall of Shame: DNR -5.6%, APA -3.8%, RIO -3.0%

The new Top 3 are MTL, HIL and APWR. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Everything is just fine. Even LNN is recovering a bit.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold DNR, ATW and RIG for an average gain of 6.3%, for a total average of +4.8% over the 119 reported sells. No stocks gained 15% or more (DNR came close with 14.2%), so we stay with 32 stocks which reached 15% or more. This week CF, DAR and MA will be replaced by HIL, APWR and WDC.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, FLS and DNR

Two weeks have passed and my funds are still doing nicely. They really rocketed last week, and now dropped some, but my main fund still strenthened its lead and again set a new all time high. Well, these things come in swarms. IWM is in good form and SPY most certainly not. The percentage for the week (the first one) is now of course for two weeks:

QHF: 36.48 (+2.2%; +7.9%)
QHF-: 30.65 (-0.3%; +1.3%)
IWM: 25.22 (+1.0%; -4.9%)
QQQQ: 27.56 (-0.0%; -5.9%)
SPY: 25.87 (-0.9%; -5.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame (again over two weeks):
Hall of Fame: GGB +13.2%, PBR +12.0%, DNR +9.6%
Hall of Shame: LNN -9.6%, MTL -5.0%, BUCY -3.2%

The new Top 3 are POT, FLS and DNR. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Everything is just fine. Well, LNN is taking a hit, but we bought it just 6 weeks ago. Let's wait a bit.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold AXYS, FCN and LNN for an average gain of 2.1%, for a total average of +4.8% over the 116 reported sells. No stocks 15% or more, so we stay with 32 stocks which reached 15% or more. This week DNR, ATW and RIG will be replaced by DNR(!), RIG(!) and KWK.

QHF Closed Trades (no change)
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: CF, PBR, LNN

Whoohoo! And then the indexes lost and my funds exploded. My main fund is now at an all time high (just looking at weekly closes; the real all time high was Thursday), and the baseline fund is positive again:

QHF: 35.70 (+4.9%; +5.6%)
QHF-: 30.74 (+3.0%; +1.6%)
SPY: 26.11 (-1.8%; -5.0%)
IWM: 24.97 (-1.4%; -5.8%)
QQQQ: 27.56 (-1.1%; -5.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: CLF +14.1%, DNR 11.5%, SID +8.8%
Hall of Shame: RIO -0.8%, RIG +1.1%(!), AAPL +1.4%(!)
The worst performer in the Hall of Shame still beats our benchmark indexes

The new Top 3 are CF, PBR and LNN. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. Everything is just fine.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold POT, TRA, and FLS for an average gain of 15.6%, for a total average of +4.8% over the 113 reported sells. POT and FLS gained more than 15%, so now 32 stocks reached 15% or more. This week AXYS, FCN and LNN will be replaced by MTL, LNN(!) and JST.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, ARD and KWK

This is the second week where my funds lost and the indexes gained. My main fund is still out of negative territory, but barely so:

QHF: 34.02 (-1.4%; +0.6%)
QHF-: 29.84 (-0.9%; -1.3%)
SPY: 26.60 (+1.4%; -3.2%)
IWM: 25.32 (+0.8%; -4.5%)
QQQQ: 27.88 (+3.4%; -4.8%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: GGB +12.6%, AAPL +6.6%, RIO +5.2%
Hall of Shame: POT -9.9%, LNN -9.7%, DNR -7.6%

The new Top 3 are POT, ARD and KWK. Do we need a new pick for our fund? No, we don't. GGB needs trimming.

NOV was sold for 73.25, a small loss of -0.6% in about 6 months. That is disappointing. Its replacement CLF was bought for 164.22.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold CMED, VIP and FSLR for an average gain of 13.8%, for a total average of +4.5% over the 110 reported sells. FSLR gained a whopping 69.2%, so now 30 stocks reached 15% or more. This week POT, TRA, and FLS will be replaced by POT(!), FLS(!) and ARD.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 27, avg -23.1%
Total: 75, avg +37.2%

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Top 3: CF, PBR, RIG

Karel,
APA is also high on my list but not mentioned in the IIC100 or IBD100. Time will tell its value.

True. My fund bought APA 4/7, and it is up 7%, the baseline fund saw it lose -3.5% in its first week.

The damage after the jump upwards last week was moderate. The baseline fund dropped back in negative territory:

QHF: 34.49 (-0.6%; +2.0%)
QHF-: 30.11 (-1.9%; -0.4%)
SPY: 26.24 (+0.8%; -4.5%)
IWM: 25.11 (+0.3%; -5.3%)
QQQQ: 26.96 (+0.9%; -7.9%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: EXM +18.9%, AAPL +5.4%, BUCY +2.7%
Hall of Shame: LNN -12.2%, ATW -4.3%, APA -3.3%

I decide to hold EXM on the usual regime: as long as it keeps rising.

The new Top 3 are CF, PBR, RIG. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because NOV is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close). Out it goes, and its replacement will be CLF. Usually I buy these stocks also in real money; this time I don't for the simple reason that I want to build up my cash position a bit.

NOK was sold for 29.06, a disappointing -23.1% loss in a bit more than 5 months; its replacement PBR was bought for 127.11.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold AAPL, CAM and NOV for an average gain of 22.4%, for a total average of +4.3% over the 107 reported sells. Both CAM and NOV gained more than 15%, so now 29 stocks reached 15% or more. This week CMED, VIP and FSLR will be replaced by OFG, CLF and RIMM. OFG? Rings a bell somewhere

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 26, avg -23.9%
Total: 74, avg +37.7%

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Karel,
APA is also high on my list but not mentioned in the IIC100 or IBD100. Time will tell its value.


-------------billy

[Karel]

New Top 3: POT, DNR, RIG

Ubiquitous irrational exuberance actually pushed my funds in the black for the year:

QHF: 34.71 (+8.0%; +2.7%)
QHF-: 30.69 (+6.4%; +1.5%)
SPY: 26.03 (+3.8%; -5.3%) (!!)
IWM: 25.03 (+4.3%; -5.6%)
QQQQ: 26.71 (+5.5%; -8.8%)

This weeks halls of fame and shame:
Hall of Fame: EXM +31.6%, LNN +21.2%, BUCY +15,6%
Hall of Shame: NOK -10.6%, MTL +2.6%, GGB +3.7%

A note about EXM: it surreptitiously (well, for the somnolent investor I am) entered my portfolio as a replacement for QMAR. EXM bought QMAR for $13 and .3979 shares of EXM for one share of QMAR. That means that QMAR got sold for 24,40 and EXM got bought for 28,64. I decide to hold EXM on the usual regime: as long as it keeps rising.

The new Top 3 are POT, DNR, RIG. Well, these stocks are usual suspects by now. Do we need a new pick for our fund? Yes, because NOK is marked as stalling (100 days without a new 5% higher weekly close) and it is down 23% since December 11. Out it goes, and its replacement will be PBR.

VIP got sold for 30.80, a tasty 24.3% gain in 7 months; its replacement LNN was bought for 105.26, QMAR was sold for a small loss: -5.4% in 4 months; the buy price for EXM was 28.64.

Last week the baseline fund, QHF-, sold JEC, BYI and ANR for an average gain of 5.6%, for a total average of +3.8% over the 104 reported sells. NR gained a dizzying 63.9% in that period, so now 27 stocks reached 15% or more. This week AAPL, CAM and NOV will be replaced by PBR, APA and FST.

QHF Closed Trades
Winners: 48, avg +71.1%
Losers: 25, avg -23.9%
Total: 73, avg +38.5%

Regards,

Karel