Karel's Marketocracy Fund

[antioch6]

I was watching the bond market today and it went sideways all day. I started thinking about what the logic behind stocks is, and I couldn't bring myself to buy any more companies without thinking of the value. I am buying something and I am getting something in return. I can't buy bank stocks and not know what is on their liabilities, or else it's just gambling. Also the previous top 3 TGT, AKAM, and NJR look good, but like Bluewolf said most of the return could be luck from unknown news announcements. So I just want to make sure I am not losing on any trades I make, and even if it takes another 15 years like I have been waiting, I will wait for the moment when price meets value.

[jiesen]

or BAC for that matter.... though Boeing is probably a good blue chip as well. We all need airplanes at some point, don't we?

[jiesen]

That's a really good question, so why don't you? Plenty of people do just that, and it works out very well. Just buy WMT, AMZN, BA or MSFT and sit on the stock, if those are the products you use most. It saves time and energy, the less trading you need to do, and you can just collect dividends for spending money, never needing to sell!

[antioch6]

I was writing a long response, but as has been the case I started eating something and lost all motivation for investing in stocks. Today I ordered some General Tso's Ckxn, some Sweet and Sour Chicken, egg rolls and white rice. I tried applying for a job at Walmart again, but I failed the retail associate assessment. I lifted some weights and am wondering if there will ever be a chance to buy stocks on a low. I want to screen and buy 3 stocks each week, but the earnings are just not there to buy yet. Everything is future earnings with promises of technology, and a.i., or commodities, or change in currency or at least gold. I have thought about things to spend my money on, as how I usually start my stock market venture, but now I end up ordering delivery. The only company I see that has a promising future is Wal-Mart, and I will try to apply for them or go in person sometime. I know we don't need to work, but that is where my thinking goes, and I usually find what I want from starting the process.

JieSen that could be fun picking a top 3 from A.I. every week, but I am a devil in the details, so I want to know how long will these stocks or companies last in outperformance. It is hard for me buying a company and knowing everything about it, and leave the stock trading to chance. I don't need to work, but why do I need to check my company news every day like I am working? And, why can't I leave my company to theoretically manage itself for 6 weeks. I just can't see owning a company without putting all your heart into it. And if I am only buy and holding, I am floating towards buying and holding forever, because why would you ever sell a company that is making money.

Lastly I only manage my screen because I enjoy the process, updating criteria every week, and waiting to see the results as time goes by. I am finding it impossible to do this because I can't convince myself stocks are going higher, or that earnings are good enough, or that p/e ratios are low enough. Why can't I just invest in businesses I use, Chipotle, Instacart, Amazon, Google, Bank of America.

[jiesen]

the key is to play around with the AI chatbot for a while, and see what prompts work to get results and which ones don't... it isn't good for all questions, but is great for certain specific things you can ask, like ranking them by a certain factor, such as EPS or price volatility. And not all AI's are equal. I find Google's Gemini to be the most reliable and accurate, when compared to the other free ones available.

[BlueWolf]

I appreciate the input, Jiesen. I’ve tried to generate trading ideas using AI, but I haven’t had much luck. I created a mock portfolio from recommendations, and it didn’t perform well. This surprised me. I was expecting it to do pretty well, especially when it came to technical analysis, but it just didn’t. I will try running some through AI in the future to see if it at least can help me prune ideas down. It’s curious that your run came up with two of the stocks I liked from Antioch’s list: UTHR and REGN.

[jiesen]

BTW I just tried that for both Grok and Gemini - Grok complained about the same thing you did - (he didn't have the bandwidth right now to help me lol) but Gemini took the task on like a champ and said this:
To screen these stocks for momentum and EPS growth, we can categorize them by their sector performance and fundamental strength. Based on recent market data, here is an analysis of how these tickers currently stack up. Top Momentum & Growth Performers


These stocks are showing the strongest combination of price strength (Relative Strength) and consistent earnings expansion.

• MUSA (Murphy USA): Exceptional momentum. This stock has consistently hit new highs driven by aggressive share buybacks and robust EPS growth in the fuel retail space.
• UTHR (United Therapeutics): Strong momentum in the biotech sector. They have maintained high double-digit EPS growth driven by their pulmonary hypertension portfolio.
• MLI (Mueller Industries): A standout in the industrial sector with high returns on invested capital and price momentum that often outpaces the broader S&P 500.
• BKE (The Buckle): Shows surprisingly resilient momentum and high yield, supported by steady earnings in a difficult retail environment.

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High EPS Growth (Fundamental Strength)


While these may have slightly less "explosive" price action than the names above, their bottom-line growth is significant.

• REGN (Regeneron): A leader in EPS growth within large-cap biotech. While momentum can be volatile based on clinical news, the fundamental earnings trajectory remains steep.
• CRUS (Cirrus Logic): High growth tied to the smartphone and audio-chip cycle. It often experiences sharp momentum swings around earnings reports.
• LIVN (LivaNova): Showing a turnaround in EPS growth, making it a "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) candidate.

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The Financial & Banking Cluster


Your list contains a heavy concentration of regional banks (e.g., WSFS, FHN, ABCB, UBSI).

• FHN (First Horizon): Currently exhibits higher momentum than many peers due to merger-related activity and stabilizing net interest margins.
• WSFS (WSFS Financial): Generally considered a high-quality regional with steady EPS, though momentum in this sector is currently sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.

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Cyclical & Value Momentum


These names have seen a resurgence in momentum due to macro cycles rather than pure "tech-style" growth.

Ticker	Sector	Momentum Driver
FDX	Logistics	Post-restructuring EPS expansion and improved margins.
EPD / KMI	Energy	High cash flow and steady distributions; momentum is "slow and steady."
RIO	Mining	Highly dependent on iron ore prices; momentum is currently cyclical.
TGT	Retail	Recovering EPS growth as inventory issues have cleared.

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Screening Summary Table

Category	Best Tickers
Pure Momentum	MUSA, UTHR, MLI
EPS Growth Leaders	REGN, CRUS, BKE
Stable Dividends + Momentum	EPD, DKL, CM
Laggards (Low Momentum)	BIIB, CSCO, ZTO

Note: For names like R RX (potentially a typo for Regeneron or a specific fund) and AKO.A/B, liquidity is lower, which can lead to "false" momentum signals. Ensure you check the average daily volume before considering a position.

[jiesen]

BW, if you feel like that's too many stocks to deal with at once, try using an LLM bot to help you out with it. Just copy the list into Gemini or whatever (Grok, etc) and ask it to do what you'd like done - 'Grok, screen these for momentum and EPS growth, for instance'. Let them help you with it, and you'll be surprised how helpful that can be.

[BlueWolf]

I had in mind I will continue to pick 3 stocks every week from the screener, but you could give a final go ahead for the strategy. My mother wants to buy the same stocks as me, and she doesn't want to trade too much, so I was planning on using the random 3 from the 150 company list and holding for 6 weeks. The only trick the strategy has is rotating holdings every 6 weeks, as this equals market exposure in positive criteria. I was pushing for 4 weeks, but since I am here and following Karel and Karel is following MrMarket, he used a 6 weeks holding time for top 3, and had positive results.

….

Here is the dump for this week:

BIIB,REGN,RPRX,UTHR,CRUS,ASTE,BDC,DRD,FDX,DD,ENS,R RX,CNX,DKL,EPD,KMI,MUSA,UGP,RIO,ZTO,MLI,TKR,TGT,IS SC,SLB,UMC,KE,BSAC,CM,VBNK,LIVN,UTMD,ABCB,AFBI,FBN C,FCBC,FHN,FUSB,FVCB,FXNC,NKSH,OBK,RRBI,SMBK,UBSI, AKO.A,AKO.B,CSCO,CNI,UNP,AX,BBT,BKU,CFFN,CZWI,TRST ,WNEB,WSFS,BKE

Maybe you can informally pick the top 3 if you have time on the weekend and I'll buy them next week.

Here's the top 3 I like. I didn't want too many banks in case there is a financial collapse. TGT, AKAM, NJR. Sorry for all the banks in the list but that is what came out.

I don’t really have the bandwidth to screen that many stocks on short notice, but I can give share my thoughts on your top 3 and a few others from your dump.

TGT: To be honest, on first blush, TGT makes me a little nervous because it has been an overall underperformer since 2021. The good news is that it has been uptrending since November, and its next reporting period is fiscal Q4, which traditionally is its best quarter (it’s a seasonal stock). I like the little pullback on the daily as an entry, even though I ideally wish it was a little deeper.

AKAM: This is an intriguing pick, especially because the share price was a little unfairly beaten down recently over hypothetical AI security concerns and (possibly) because of its association with the banking industry, which took lumps over concerns about how credit scores are going to be calculated in the future. It now looks deeply oversold and should get a nice bounce from here. Just keep in mind that earnings are coming up on May 7 and that will make or break this pick over the next six weeks.

NJR: I like this one. Looks strong with good upside potential. Earnings coming up on May 4.

Others from the list I like: REGN, UTHR, and CSCO. Sorry I just didn’t have time to break these down more.

[antioch6]

I had in mind I will continue to pick 3 stocks every week from the screener, but you could give a final go ahead for the strategy. My mother wants to buy the same stocks as me, and she doesn't want to trade too much, so I was planning on using the random 3 from the 150 company list and holding for 6 weeks. The only trick the strategy has is rotating holdings every 6 weeks, as this equals market exposure in positive criteria. I was pushing for 4 weeks, but since I am here and following Karel and Karel is following MrMarket, he used a 6 weeks holding time for top 3, and had positive results.

The idea's I have for trading my mom's account is using 50% for buy and hold, and saving the other 50% for when the market is in an early stage of a bull market, characterized by negative sentiment, average p/e's, and government monetary stimulus. I deep down believe there is a reason why we had Qe, and why the government had to bail out the banks. And there is a reason why there's no mention about problems in the media and everyone buying today thinks the 2008 crisis is over, and why the government is pushing A.I. and trying to brace market price on every sell off, and finally why Trump is openly pumping the stock market with mini crashes and relief recoveries after. The only question is can governments continue to defend stocks from extreme lows long enough and coordinated enough to carry markets higher. I think we all agree the market will be higher in many years, but where will the next major low be?

I really am not against the idea of a trailing stop loss, I just think it's impossible to find the right stop loss without losing gains on most buys, and I would think the trade-off of reinvesting into a new top 3 would carry the potential for continued gains. As long as I am into the market with a constant supply of money, I would expect a basket of my 150 company list would overall behave better than picking randomly from all stocks. I took the idea from Martin Zweig in his performance table with results for stocks screened on earnings stability, p/e, and price strength. He said to filter out the negatives, and you'll be left with the positives. The screen filters companies with stable growth (earnings deviation under 35%), reasonable p/e (p/e between bottom 33rd%tile and top 66th%tile), and strong price (minimum bottom 33rd%tile, increased until left with 150). Then I list the companies and randomly pick a top 3.

Here is the dump for this week:

BIIB,REGN,RPRX,UTHR,CRUS,ASTE,BDC,DRD,FDX,DD,ENS,R RX,CNX,DKL,EPD,KMI,MUSA,UGP,RIO,ZTO,MLI,TKR,TGT,IS SC,SLB,UMC,KE,BSAC,CM,VBNK,LIVN,UTMD,ABCB,AFBI,FBN C,FCBC,FHN,FUSB,FVCB,FXNC,NKSH,OBK,RRBI,SMBK,UBSI, AKO.A,AKO.B,CSCO,CNI,UNP,AX,BBT,BKU,CFFN,CZWI,TRST ,WNEB,WSFS,BKE

Maybe you can informally pick the top 3 if you have time on the weekend and I'll buy them next week.

Here's the top 3 I like. I didn't want too many banks in case there is a financial collapse. TGT, AKAM, NJR. Sorry for all the banks in the list but that is what came out.

[BlueWolf]

Hi Gary. Maybe you can join me on this stock long term adventure.

What did you have in mind?

I don't believe in technical analysis …

I wouldn’t recommend using TA by itself. It should be combined with fundamentals. It can be used to better time entries and exits, though.

… so a trail stop would just sell on a loss.

No, it doesn’t mean selling at a loss. Let’s say you buy a stock at $50, and after 6 weeks it hits $75. You can put the stop at $70 and set it to trail by 5%. So if the stock drops below $70, you sell at $70 for a $20 per share profit, i.e, you give back $5. If it continues to run, however, say to $90, and then it pulls back by 5%, which at that point would be $85.5, you would book a $30.5 per share profit. So it;s a profit either way. I’m not saying to put a trail stop on every position at 6 weeks, just the winners, and even then it would have to be assessed on a case by case basis.

In theory short term trading doesn't work for everyone, because someone must lose.

This might surprise, but I agree. It hardly works for anybody. You have to be extremely talented to be a successful day or swing trader.

But long term trading, buy and hold, I like the theory for everyone, because disposable income turns into an atm for the masses. You only take money out of the market when you need a house or a car, so spare money just supports other people's houses and cars, regulated by the banks, regulated by power.

I agree with you, but I do believe in taking profits and pruning losers when the fundamentals change significantly.

I don't have motivation to add a trail stop order on prices, adding countless orders to my activity, instead of just passively buying and selling on a set time frame. I won't worry about or be scared of gap downs because one day I will die, and gap downs or losses won't be that serious.

I understand. It was just a suggestion, not intended as a criticism. Trail stopping does add complexity to the management process. I suppose I was just expressing my own personal propensities. I am somewhat obsessed with looking at, evaluating, reassessing my positions every day because I am still looking for the holy grail. There was a time when I tried to become a full time day trader. I opened an account with Trade Station, learned Easy Language, which was anything but easy, and tried automated day trading. I got eaten alive, but I learned a lot. I’m mostly a long term (buy-and-hold) trader now, but that doesn’t mean I don’t swap out positions frequently.

If I really want to make money, I would wait for a time the s&p is down a lot, probably in the next 10 years, on news that the interest on the federal debt is too high and the government is going to stimulate the market with a lot of money. That's what I'm telling my mom to wait for, but she has a liver disease and says she won't live that long, so I don't know, someone is going to get an opportunity to buy risk assets when they are down and during a government stimulus to send them back high.

That’s not a bad approach, but two things make it difficult in my own experience. First, it’s very hard to time bottoms. Just when you think it’s hit a bottom, it goes even lower. Second, it can take years to recover from a bear market, so you have to be patient. If you pick solid stocks, however, you will make money. Warren Buffet once characterized himself as “being greedy when others are fearful.”

On One final conclusion, I am worried about a downside in a bear market, but that's why I tell my parents to wait to buy stocks. They have all the money, and I am just trading for entertainment. I've thought about using only 50% of my money for buy and hold, and trying to time the market with 25%, then using the last 25% to either buy stocks on a time, keep it in cash, or short stocks. I keep thinking about and looking for the perfect answer, but there is really no alternative to buying in a down market when the federal bank is stimulating. Thanks for your feedback Gary, it's nice to have a supportive comment from a good man.

I agree. Good luck and thank you for your kind words.

[antioch6]

Hi Gary. Maybe you can join me on this stock long term adventure. I don't believe in technical analysis, so a trail stop would just sell on a loss. I have thought out of this by treating the buy side and sell side equal, why not set a buy trail loss stop like MrMarket. The idea with buying and selling on a 6 week time frame is giving the company enough time to manage the business. If you are daytrading or trading off the charts you might be only buying and selling a promise note of paper and you'd need to game someone out of their money by interpreting the buy and sell action and anticipating what maybe will happen next. My core belief in the stock market is that prices can be controlled by digital money. Whenever prices fall or business contracts. government will create digital money and send it to the banks. The banks control the distribution of money, so if I need money I go to a the bank. Stocks are part of the bank, so they are supported by banks and therefore supported by the government. I don't view investing and making money as an end goal, but rather an intermediary fact before society is finally perfected. We need the time first. We need money. Stocks and companies are just a way of organizing power so that it doesn't go in the wrong places.

I have been an active trader, trading on 1 second time frames and switching from long to short often on 1 minute intervals, but that might not be why you think. I had set out to test, test, if short term trading worked. Specifically, the short term my dad was trading from Canslim and Gary Kaltbaum. In theory short term trading doesn't work for everyone, because someone must lose. So in the grander scheme of the world I don't like short term trading. But long term trading, buy and hold, I like the theory for everyone, because disposable income turns into an atm for the masses. You only take money out of the market when you need a house or a car, so spare money just supports other people's houses and cars, regulated by the banks, regulated by power. It's taken a lot to convince to buy and hold stocks 6 weeks at a time, forever. Why use 6 weeks, instead of 4 weeks, or some other time? Time is the most important thing that is shared by everyone. I base my time on Swedish. So that means I wake up and have Frukost, or fruit juice and sweetened breads for breakfast. Then at 12 I have dinner, and at 4 I have dinner again, a sort of banquet or feast I consider, the 12 - 7 Middag period. Then at 7 I start getting ready for my day which ideally would be sex at 8. But that will happen if it does one day on it's own time, but I get ready for it at 7. Then I go to bed and get ready for bed at 9 and I'm in bed trying to sleep at 9 to 10 until the next day starts again. I believe one day when I die, I'll follow the King of Sweden when he dies, and in the afterlife, whatever happens to him, will happen to me. This is how I live and I find happyness in Swedish whenever I don't know what to do. I spent my time at the house, at the hotel, and at the bank, and after that it gets dirty but I end at the gas station after that. Companies and stocks fit in to my life at the bank. I don't have motivation to add a trail stop order on prices, adding countless orders to my activity, instead of just passively buying and selling on a set time frame. I won't worry about or be scared of gap downs because one day I will die, and gap downs or losses won't be that serious.

If I have a winner at the end of six weeks, I'll just enjoy the fact I had a winner, instead of automatically trailing a stop, or automatically doing anything like, If everyone trailed a stop on winners, that's how I'd like to think. But if I was trying to let something run, I would just hold it. Where is the target? If there is no target then a stock is just as likely to go down as go up, and holding longer than 6 weeks turn to 7 weeks, turns to 8 weeks, turns to 3 months, turns to another earnings report and I think you'd lose your sense of time after that. I am not making these decisions based on making the most money out of stocks, but on living the happiest life I possibly can. Stocks give me time for research on the weekends and time for study during the week days. I enjoy my eating much more and the only thing left after that is sex.

If I really want to make money, I would wait for a time the s&p is down a lot, probably in the next 10 years, on news that the interest on the federal debt is too high and the government is going to stimulate the market with a lot of money. That's what I'm telling my mom to wait for, but she has a liver disease and says she won't live that long, so I don't know, someone is going to get an opportunity to buy risk assets when they are down and during a government stimulus to send them back high.

On One final conclusion, I am worried about a downside in a bear market, but that's why I tell my parents to wait to buy stocks. They have all the money, and I am just trading for entertainment. I've thought about using only 50% of my money for buy and hold, and trying to time the market with 25%, then using the last 25% to either buy stocks on a time, keep it in cash, or short stocks. I keep thinking about and looking for the perfect answer, but there is really no alternative to buying in a down market when the federal bank is stimulating. Thanks for your feedback Gary, it's nice to have a supportive comment from a good man.

[BlueWolf]

This week's 3 stocks are FITB, AX, and RPRX.
I bought FITB at 50.94, AX at 98.78, and RPRX at 49.93. I will sell all three of them in 6 weeks.

You have an Interesting approach, and I like your picks. They all look solid. I do have a suggestion for you though. If you have a winner at the end of six weeks and it happens to be one of your three oldest, instead of automatically rotating it out, why not just just trail stop it from wherever it happens to be at that point and let it run. Are you worried about gaps down?

[antioch6]

So I was looking for something to do, something clean and good, and I saw louetta post "just buy a good mutual fund". This was the motivation I needed to hold long term, to look at companies as investments rather than as toys to get rich. Weather my trades show a profit doesn't matter to me, as long as it's the moral right thing to do, I will keep buying. Also, I don't want to pick each company based on some superficial specific data, but rather I will create a universe of companies with positive characteristics, then pick randomly from a supply amount. I aim for a dump of around 150 based on Martin Zweig's top rating group size, then I'll randomly pick 3 companies from this dump and hold for 6 weeks. After 6 weeks I will replace the oldest 3 stocks with 3 new stocks from the weekly dump.

This week's 3 stocks are FITB, AX, and RPRX.

I bought FITB at 50.94, AX at 98.78, and RPRX at 49.93. I will sell all three of them in 6 weeks.

[antioch6]

I was ready to get started investing this week. My market timing service is on a buy signal, and my stock screener is giving me stocks to pick, so there is nothing stopping me. But I have been thinking a lot and doing a lot of thinking. What is the foundation for stock trading, what is buying and what is selling, and how does anyone make money.

I've been focusing on how to make money, looking into countless methods for market timing, technical analysis, and momentum strategies. Now it is clear that at the end stock trading is about the fair value price, or the price someone is reasonably willing to pay for a company. This is the only thing that matters for selling. It's all a sales technique. As long as someone pays the high price, you can make money buying before then. This has blocked me from buying any stocks because I don't know where the market for selling them is right now. Who am I going to sell these to? Why would they want to pay a higher price than here?

I still want to participate, but I don't want to lose money. My market timing is on a buy, almost every market technical is on a buy. Everyone thinks the market is going higher. But I can't nail down the why. It should be clear why something is going higher. After all the manipulation and the gambling it should be obvious what is going to happen, if you fully understand the facts.

Now that I think about it, the real reason I don't want to invest is because of Michael Burry. I started reading his newsletter, and his research is the only research I know of that is thorough and complete. He doesn't invest until he knows all the facts, and understands why a market might trade at a different P/e, versus some news catalyst that might change the fair value. Currently he is picking winners and losers in the software space, and timing his entries based on news in software.

So I gave a second thought to my screener, but I can't reason why I should pick any set amount of time for price performance or earnings performance. It all seems like a prophet into the future using the past, and everyone knows this doesn't work because past performance doesn't guarantee future results.

In conclusion, I trust my market timing service because of it's creation in the 1970s, but I can't find a path to screen through individual stocks, which should be what the buying investing is all about. If I am not buying a company, I am just buying a piece of paper, so I might as well be buying a house. I'm trying to fall back on Karel's stock picking, but he merely used MrMarket's stock picking, so I am trying to fall back on MrMarket's stock picking.

After falling back on MrMarket's stock picking, I've tried to fall back on my own stock picking. In my screener, I notice everything in terms of time is based on a year, so that is part of the game. No one buys stock because the think earnings or momentum will change in a few weeks, they will just lose out to short term trading and long term fundamentals. So anything under a year is forgettable, and I can confirm this in my own life. How much that happens in one day will be remembered after a year of time? Will be remembered by everyone? Anyways I've just realized that in timing the market, p/e doesn't matter. If something is higher quality, it will trade at a higher p/e, and the mechanics of stocks dictate that price will be sold carefully before one finally tops. But unfortunately, detaching the P/e ratio brings me back to trading shorter time frames, where fundamentals doesn't matter as much. I don't believe in timing the value of companies based on what someone else has already paid for them.

I wan't to buy companies because I like them and I think they will do good in the future, a way to actually own some company while the year passes to collect an income stream. The price shouldn't matter on anything else besides the future market of companies, and the future success or failure of the individual business. That's what I'm going to try out in buying this time around. And I won't rely on my market timing signal because that is all based on buying the s&p 500, which neglects looking as individual companies, which is what I am interested in.