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Big men come and big men go but they never measure up to the HUGEST of them all ==> $$$MR. MARKET$$$. Today I sold HZO at 30.27. That’s a 17% gain over my purchase price of 25.87. All of this was accomplished in less than 4 weeks for an annualized gain of 230%. Can you do that? You? You?? YOU??? Over the same period, the S&P 500 only went up 3.6%. Once again $$$MR. MARKET$$$ soundly trounces the market. I can’t lose! CAN’T LOSE!!! I’m like playing roulette and betting on red, black and green all at the same time. Drinking Machine!! Can’t LOSE!!! I am 55 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. I can’t drive 55.
Did you buy any HZO? You? YOU??? More $$$MR. MARKET$$$ picks are forthcoming but first you must publicly state, in your own words, just who the best stock picker on the planet is…..give me my props! GIVE ME MY PROPS!!!
I am HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.
===============================================
Posted: 11 Mar 2004 03:09 pm Post subject: HZO ==> The St. Paddy's Day Winner
Say you’re an average humanoid with 14” biceps and a 160 lb bench press. You want to stamp your feet and pretend you’re just like $$$MR. MARKET$$$ but no one notices you. What does the average materialistic insecure humanoid to do? He looks at half-clad bikini-bound babes of boat ads. Let’s face it. For guys, boat ads and a lot of boat company brochures contain some sort of female eye-candy.
So, he buys a boat of course.
Now don’t get me wrong. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ acknowledges that boating can stimulate some basic pleasure functions. Take this description from one of our illustrious members (names changed to protect the guilty): “Boating is like your first date, first beer, first cigar. A right of passage. I still remember the first time I picked up two young ladies from the the beach and gave them a ride in my new whaler. The sea spray gently wetting their young firm bodies, the cool breeze sending goose bumps down your spine. The effects of a few beers and the to and fro motion of the waves as we experienced the carnal joys of youth. Oh to be 17 again. Well... I believe her name was Julie or maybe Kim (doesn't matter just another port in my long checkered past). Or better yet how about the time the "Crow" and I picked up two gals and returned to the Yellowbird ..a fine woody from the past. Cris Craft cabin cruiser, that night joy was found in the arms of two women.” Other women may have different ideas. Some like amusement parks, others like swimming. Maybe you can take a girl out snorkeling, or diving. Boating is fun, so is tennis and football. If she's a Brit, she might like soccer. Basketball is good, too. Try going rollerblading, or riding a motorcycle. Go on a hike and explore someplace that isn't inhabited, where it's only the two of you and the animals. Go dancing, or take some informal meringue lessons together.
Getting blood pumping starts circulation within the entire body, making one feel overall healthier. Feeling healthier means being up more for sex. Hey pass the Cialais!
Most companies have grown up as time has gone on, but sex still sells, always will. Can women be boatowners too? Now women are left to wonder: Why would a model with a figure like that go out on a boat with an overweight, balding man? A woman may be jealous of a size zero model with picture-perfect hair, but that’s not her main concern. She’ll ask, “Where’s my eye candy? There’s been enough shirtless, bikini-touting girls, that I have to say – isn’t about time for more hot shirtless guys?” To that I say, look no further than $$$MR. MARKET$$$ and TitanOmega on their own private yacht:
For years, boating has been a testosterone loaded event. Ripping off the covers of beer cans and falling down drunk while reeling in bluefish. But women can be boat owners too. Last summer, down on Lake Isabella, located in the high desert, an hour east of Bakersfield, California, a woman new to boating was having a problem. No matter how hard she tried, she just couldn’t get her brand new 22’ Bayliner to perform. It wouldn’t get on plane, and it was very sluggish in almost every maneuver, no matter how much power she applied. After about an hour of trying to make it go, she putted over to a nearby marina. Maybe they could tell her what was wrong. A thorough topside check revealed everything was in perfect working order. The engine ran fine, the outdrive went up and down, the prop was the correct size and pitch. So, one of the marina guys jumped in the water to check underneath the boat… and came up seconds later choking on water he was laughing so hard. Under the boat, still strapped securely in place was the trailer.”
Just kidding…maybe women can buy boats…think of it. There’s something really sexy about powering yourself across the water, the wind in your hair, with your three best female friends for a day devoted to girl-talk, sunning, margaritas and fresh guacamole. No sucking in your gut, no posing in your bikini, no “Honey, grab that line NOW.” You get to just relax! Sorry, I can’t empathize..besides, how can I relax when I think I’ve just discovered the best stock on the planet right now!!??
Today I bought HZO (MarineMax) at 25.87. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 29.82. Here’s why I like HZO:
Sales of pleasure boats are surging and MarineMax is the nation's largest recreational boat dealer. HZO sells new and used recreational boats, including pleasure boats (such as sport boats, sport cruisers and yachts) and fishing boats with a focus on premium brands in each segment. The company also sells related marine products, including engines.
HZO’s stock is up over 207% in the last 12 months, yet its PE sits modestly at 19. The r^2 coefficient of a time series regression for 12 months, 6 months and 3 months is 0.90, 0.88, and 0.87. This is rock solid unwavering consistently upward price momentum. Think of it as a cruise ship steaming ahead in calm waters with nothing in its path to upset its voyage. Look at this chart…it’s so smooth it’s like a Michael Jordan jump shot:
Vectorvest’s value analysis supports HZO’s price climb. HZO has a current Value of $38.76 per share, according to VectorVest.
Consumer confidence is near historic high levels, he says, consumer spending continues to be strong, and, until recently, the stock market has been peppy. Look at which retail outlets had bonanza Christmas sales. It was all of the high end stuff. True, the most recent unemployment numbers are not encouraging but these are really the average jobs for average people. We’re not talking about factory workers as the buyers for the $15 million dollar Ferretti yacht that Marine Max sells. Marine Max’s customers are doing fine…thanks very much. The whole “nesting” phenomenon is right up the alley of being a boat owner. It ain’t no sin to be glad you’re alive and you and your partner Sonny will ride from town to town. You only run for the money.. got no strings attached, you shut 'em up and then you shut 'em down.
Big deal..people buy boats. They’ve always bought boats. How can there be money in a boat stock? Here lies the beauty of Marine Max’s impending success. These guys are the CLASSIC roll-up kings. Boat dealers have historically been some boat hobbyist who decided to get into the business. They open up a small boat dealership in your town and they have about 6 boats in inventory. You come in to see them, they have stale donuts next to the ashtray by their cash register. They shake your hand with the grease from the donut and their outboard engine still under their fingernails. Then they walk you out back on the gravel rocks to see the boats that they have. You follow them, watching their pants droop down revealing their plumber’s ass crack. For years, people have purchased boats from these people because it’s the only place in their neighborhood yellow pages and the guy you know who owns a boat told you about Mr. Ass Crack.
The times are a changing. Marine Max is unfragmenting this insanely fragmented industry. By buying up (and buying out) dealers at purchase prices of percentages on the dollar, then rolling up these revenues under their pre-existing overhead, Marine Max is making the entire boat retailing business more efficient (and HZO is the 100% beneficiary). Even if total demand for boats never increases, HZO will improve their profitability just by growing their market share.
By standardizing the boat buying experience and spreading their boat inventory across their entire network, HZO greatly enhances the probability that they will be giving the customer what they want. MarineMax prices its boats at a fair value, and clearly displays the price. There’s no haggling or bait and switch.
The coup de grace is management's service-oriented approach, such as training sessions for boat buyers which will support a positive boating experience. Within five days of your purchase, a service rep calls to see if you feel comfortable with your boat. If you don't, the store will send out a field rep to help you get accustomed to it. The company offers free 24-hour emergency repair service. If you're a novice, it will send a captain out to ride with you on your maiden voyage. It also provides two years of free maintenance and service for boats over 20 feet, as well as special rates on getaway cruises and training. You think Mr. Plumber’s ass does that?
HZO can do this because they don’t have the overhead of a bazillion small businesses (actually it’s 4,000 small dealers, but I like to say bazillion). Most retailers are small, with annual sales of less than $3 million. Other bennies are economies of scale coming in the form of financing and insurance. HZO’s training is standardized and packaged and these costs are spread over all of their stores. Customers pay a slight premium for such perks but it works because customers keep coming back. 50% of HZO’s customers are repeat buyers. By building a national network of dealers, customers can get service anywhere they live or travel. Marine Max calls it delivering the dream experience of buying a boat.
The potential is enormous. You have a 10 billion dollar industry comprised of 4,000 retailers. Mr. Plumber’s crack butt is getting his ass kicked by boat manufacturers because of his dirty fingernails. The whole industry needs MarineMax..now more than ever. The little guy does not have a heavy hammer with manufacturers and distributors to give customers the kind of service and support they needed. HZO can provide all of this. HZO can charge more for their products AND squeeze suppliers into lowering their costs. It’s a winning strategy that will just snowball into a huge gorilla as they get bigger and bigger.
MarineMax's recent expansion, combined with a strong economy, high consumer confidence and low interest rates, bodes well for its near-term outlook. HZO’s momentum is sustainable as it continues to make strategic acquisitions of dealers consistent with its own.
The numbers certainly support this. Sales are up 20% in the last two years and earnings are up 25%. MarineMax’s sandbag numbers are between $1.38 and $1.45/share for 2004. ANALysts project sales to be $1.55/share for 2004 on revenues of $740 million (of which $290 million) comes from acquisitions. But these numbers are preposterously low. HZO has sandbagged every quarter since the beginning of time and the ANALysts are completely clueless. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects $750 million in sales which will generate $1.79/share. Even at today’s very modest PE multiple of 19, these earnings would propel the stock to a price of $34.01, which is well past my sell target.
For the quarter ended December 31, 2003, the Company reported a revenue increase of 60% to $156.7 million compared to $98.0 million for the comparable quarter last year. Same-store sales grew 56%.
Why will Marine Max win the game? HZO added several highly recognized brands to their existing distribution network. This means more inventory being throughput over the same fixed cost structure. Customers can now buy great boats like Ferretti yachts, Pershing, and Riva at Marine Max outlets. These brands will give serious credibility to MarineMax from bigtime boat buyers and will add up to $2.00/share to their bottom line. MarineMax has the best in class point of sale network….no stale donuts.
HZO’s balance sheet is clean as a whistle, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.11 they can easily ramp up on their acquisitions. Their interest coverage is 13.8 times. MarineMax is leveraged to take advantage of overall demand recovery and will continue to grow its market share thus compounding its profitability. Their Return on Invested Capital has been almost 11%, thus meaning they can borrow and acquire and lock in a return greater than their weighted average cost of capital. Fidelity owns 13% of HZO’s stock and they never put any money in Mickey Mouse companies.
Here’s what the boss says:
William H. McGill, Jr., Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated, "The December quarter is the seasonally smallest quarter for marine retailers and generally yields net losses. As a result, we are particularly pleased with our first quarter results, which were propelled by stronger than anticipated same-store sales. Driving this increase was a larger than expected shift in the model mix of products, with an increase in the number of larger boats and yachts sold. Same-store sales also benefited from our product line expansions over the last 12 months and continued growth in our service, parts, finance and insurance businesses. We are confident that our inventory levels are appropriate and our product mix is on-target for 2004. We are making use of our strong balance sheet by offering the most diverse product mix in the industry and planned promotions to effectively drive sales during the all important boat show season. With better weather and improving consumer confidence, it is likely that we accelerated some business into this quarter from our fiscal second quarter. It is clear that the outlook for marine retailers is beginning to improve. We believe that we can continue to capture market share in a highly competitive environment by offering quality products and superior service. This is the foundation of our operating platform and the principal focus of the MarineMax team. We believe this platform will drive significant value and returns to our stockholders."
Hey that’s me! I’m a stockholder!! Maybe I’ll be able to buy one of those Riva’s with all of the money I make on HZO. I don’t need to though. Just give me a tank top and 2 hours in the gym and I’ll have all of the admiration I need. I am HUGE!!! Who will drink with me???
_________________
=============================
I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.
- $$$MR. MARKET$$$
Did you buy any HZO? You? YOU??? More $$$MR. MARKET$$$ picks are forthcoming but first you must publicly state, in your own words, just who the best stock picker on the planet is…..give me my props! GIVE ME MY PROPS!!!
I am HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.
===============================================
Posted: 11 Mar 2004 03:09 pm Post subject: HZO ==> The St. Paddy's Day Winner
Say you’re an average humanoid with 14” biceps and a 160 lb bench press. You want to stamp your feet and pretend you’re just like $$$MR. MARKET$$$ but no one notices you. What does the average materialistic insecure humanoid to do? He looks at half-clad bikini-bound babes of boat ads. Let’s face it. For guys, boat ads and a lot of boat company brochures contain some sort of female eye-candy.
So, he buys a boat of course.
Now don’t get me wrong. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ acknowledges that boating can stimulate some basic pleasure functions. Take this description from one of our illustrious members (names changed to protect the guilty): “Boating is like your first date, first beer, first cigar. A right of passage. I still remember the first time I picked up two young ladies from the the beach and gave them a ride in my new whaler. The sea spray gently wetting their young firm bodies, the cool breeze sending goose bumps down your spine. The effects of a few beers and the to and fro motion of the waves as we experienced the carnal joys of youth. Oh to be 17 again. Well... I believe her name was Julie or maybe Kim (doesn't matter just another port in my long checkered past). Or better yet how about the time the "Crow" and I picked up two gals and returned to the Yellowbird ..a fine woody from the past. Cris Craft cabin cruiser, that night joy was found in the arms of two women.” Other women may have different ideas. Some like amusement parks, others like swimming. Maybe you can take a girl out snorkeling, or diving. Boating is fun, so is tennis and football. If she's a Brit, she might like soccer. Basketball is good, too. Try going rollerblading, or riding a motorcycle. Go on a hike and explore someplace that isn't inhabited, where it's only the two of you and the animals. Go dancing, or take some informal meringue lessons together.
Getting blood pumping starts circulation within the entire body, making one feel overall healthier. Feeling healthier means being up more for sex. Hey pass the Cialais!
Most companies have grown up as time has gone on, but sex still sells, always will. Can women be boatowners too? Now women are left to wonder: Why would a model with a figure like that go out on a boat with an overweight, balding man? A woman may be jealous of a size zero model with picture-perfect hair, but that’s not her main concern. She’ll ask, “Where’s my eye candy? There’s been enough shirtless, bikini-touting girls, that I have to say – isn’t about time for more hot shirtless guys?” To that I say, look no further than $$$MR. MARKET$$$ and TitanOmega on their own private yacht:
For years, boating has been a testosterone loaded event. Ripping off the covers of beer cans and falling down drunk while reeling in bluefish. But women can be boat owners too. Last summer, down on Lake Isabella, located in the high desert, an hour east of Bakersfield, California, a woman new to boating was having a problem. No matter how hard she tried, she just couldn’t get her brand new 22’ Bayliner to perform. It wouldn’t get on plane, and it was very sluggish in almost every maneuver, no matter how much power she applied. After about an hour of trying to make it go, she putted over to a nearby marina. Maybe they could tell her what was wrong. A thorough topside check revealed everything was in perfect working order. The engine ran fine, the outdrive went up and down, the prop was the correct size and pitch. So, one of the marina guys jumped in the water to check underneath the boat… and came up seconds later choking on water he was laughing so hard. Under the boat, still strapped securely in place was the trailer.”
Just kidding…maybe women can buy boats…think of it. There’s something really sexy about powering yourself across the water, the wind in your hair, with your three best female friends for a day devoted to girl-talk, sunning, margaritas and fresh guacamole. No sucking in your gut, no posing in your bikini, no “Honey, grab that line NOW.” You get to just relax! Sorry, I can’t empathize..besides, how can I relax when I think I’ve just discovered the best stock on the planet right now!!??
Today I bought HZO (MarineMax) at 25.87. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 29.82. Here’s why I like HZO:
Sales of pleasure boats are surging and MarineMax is the nation's largest recreational boat dealer. HZO sells new and used recreational boats, including pleasure boats (such as sport boats, sport cruisers and yachts) and fishing boats with a focus on premium brands in each segment. The company also sells related marine products, including engines.
HZO’s stock is up over 207% in the last 12 months, yet its PE sits modestly at 19. The r^2 coefficient of a time series regression for 12 months, 6 months and 3 months is 0.90, 0.88, and 0.87. This is rock solid unwavering consistently upward price momentum. Think of it as a cruise ship steaming ahead in calm waters with nothing in its path to upset its voyage. Look at this chart…it’s so smooth it’s like a Michael Jordan jump shot:
Vectorvest’s value analysis supports HZO’s price climb. HZO has a current Value of $38.76 per share, according to VectorVest.
Consumer confidence is near historic high levels, he says, consumer spending continues to be strong, and, until recently, the stock market has been peppy. Look at which retail outlets had bonanza Christmas sales. It was all of the high end stuff. True, the most recent unemployment numbers are not encouraging but these are really the average jobs for average people. We’re not talking about factory workers as the buyers for the $15 million dollar Ferretti yacht that Marine Max sells. Marine Max’s customers are doing fine…thanks very much. The whole “nesting” phenomenon is right up the alley of being a boat owner. It ain’t no sin to be glad you’re alive and you and your partner Sonny will ride from town to town. You only run for the money.. got no strings attached, you shut 'em up and then you shut 'em down.
Big deal..people buy boats. They’ve always bought boats. How can there be money in a boat stock? Here lies the beauty of Marine Max’s impending success. These guys are the CLASSIC roll-up kings. Boat dealers have historically been some boat hobbyist who decided to get into the business. They open up a small boat dealership in your town and they have about 6 boats in inventory. You come in to see them, they have stale donuts next to the ashtray by their cash register. They shake your hand with the grease from the donut and their outboard engine still under their fingernails. Then they walk you out back on the gravel rocks to see the boats that they have. You follow them, watching their pants droop down revealing their plumber’s ass crack. For years, people have purchased boats from these people because it’s the only place in their neighborhood yellow pages and the guy you know who owns a boat told you about Mr. Ass Crack.
The times are a changing. Marine Max is unfragmenting this insanely fragmented industry. By buying up (and buying out) dealers at purchase prices of percentages on the dollar, then rolling up these revenues under their pre-existing overhead, Marine Max is making the entire boat retailing business more efficient (and HZO is the 100% beneficiary). Even if total demand for boats never increases, HZO will improve their profitability just by growing their market share.
By standardizing the boat buying experience and spreading their boat inventory across their entire network, HZO greatly enhances the probability that they will be giving the customer what they want. MarineMax prices its boats at a fair value, and clearly displays the price. There’s no haggling or bait and switch.
The coup de grace is management's service-oriented approach, such as training sessions for boat buyers which will support a positive boating experience. Within five days of your purchase, a service rep calls to see if you feel comfortable with your boat. If you don't, the store will send out a field rep to help you get accustomed to it. The company offers free 24-hour emergency repair service. If you're a novice, it will send a captain out to ride with you on your maiden voyage. It also provides two years of free maintenance and service for boats over 20 feet, as well as special rates on getaway cruises and training. You think Mr. Plumber’s ass does that?
HZO can do this because they don’t have the overhead of a bazillion small businesses (actually it’s 4,000 small dealers, but I like to say bazillion). Most retailers are small, with annual sales of less than $3 million. Other bennies are economies of scale coming in the form of financing and insurance. HZO’s training is standardized and packaged and these costs are spread over all of their stores. Customers pay a slight premium for such perks but it works because customers keep coming back. 50% of HZO’s customers are repeat buyers. By building a national network of dealers, customers can get service anywhere they live or travel. Marine Max calls it delivering the dream experience of buying a boat.
The potential is enormous. You have a 10 billion dollar industry comprised of 4,000 retailers. Mr. Plumber’s crack butt is getting his ass kicked by boat manufacturers because of his dirty fingernails. The whole industry needs MarineMax..now more than ever. The little guy does not have a heavy hammer with manufacturers and distributors to give customers the kind of service and support they needed. HZO can provide all of this. HZO can charge more for their products AND squeeze suppliers into lowering their costs. It’s a winning strategy that will just snowball into a huge gorilla as they get bigger and bigger.
MarineMax's recent expansion, combined with a strong economy, high consumer confidence and low interest rates, bodes well for its near-term outlook. HZO’s momentum is sustainable as it continues to make strategic acquisitions of dealers consistent with its own.
The numbers certainly support this. Sales are up 20% in the last two years and earnings are up 25%. MarineMax’s sandbag numbers are between $1.38 and $1.45/share for 2004. ANALysts project sales to be $1.55/share for 2004 on revenues of $740 million (of which $290 million) comes from acquisitions. But these numbers are preposterously low. HZO has sandbagged every quarter since the beginning of time and the ANALysts are completely clueless. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects $750 million in sales which will generate $1.79/share. Even at today’s very modest PE multiple of 19, these earnings would propel the stock to a price of $34.01, which is well past my sell target.
For the quarter ended December 31, 2003, the Company reported a revenue increase of 60% to $156.7 million compared to $98.0 million for the comparable quarter last year. Same-store sales grew 56%.
Why will Marine Max win the game? HZO added several highly recognized brands to their existing distribution network. This means more inventory being throughput over the same fixed cost structure. Customers can now buy great boats like Ferretti yachts, Pershing, and Riva at Marine Max outlets. These brands will give serious credibility to MarineMax from bigtime boat buyers and will add up to $2.00/share to their bottom line. MarineMax has the best in class point of sale network….no stale donuts.
HZO’s balance sheet is clean as a whistle, with a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.11 they can easily ramp up on their acquisitions. Their interest coverage is 13.8 times. MarineMax is leveraged to take advantage of overall demand recovery and will continue to grow its market share thus compounding its profitability. Their Return on Invested Capital has been almost 11%, thus meaning they can borrow and acquire and lock in a return greater than their weighted average cost of capital. Fidelity owns 13% of HZO’s stock and they never put any money in Mickey Mouse companies.
Here’s what the boss says:
William H. McGill, Jr., Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, stated, "The December quarter is the seasonally smallest quarter for marine retailers and generally yields net losses. As a result, we are particularly pleased with our first quarter results, which were propelled by stronger than anticipated same-store sales. Driving this increase was a larger than expected shift in the model mix of products, with an increase in the number of larger boats and yachts sold. Same-store sales also benefited from our product line expansions over the last 12 months and continued growth in our service, parts, finance and insurance businesses. We are confident that our inventory levels are appropriate and our product mix is on-target for 2004. We are making use of our strong balance sheet by offering the most diverse product mix in the industry and planned promotions to effectively drive sales during the all important boat show season. With better weather and improving consumer confidence, it is likely that we accelerated some business into this quarter from our fiscal second quarter. It is clear that the outlook for marine retailers is beginning to improve. We believe that we can continue to capture market share in a highly competitive environment by offering quality products and superior service. This is the foundation of our operating platform and the principal focus of the MarineMax team. We believe this platform will drive significant value and returns to our stockholders."
Hey that’s me! I’m a stockholder!! Maybe I’ll be able to buy one of those Riva’s with all of the money I make on HZO. I don’t need to though. Just give me a tank top and 2 hours in the gym and I’ll have all of the admiration I need. I am HUGE!!! Who will drink with me???
_________________
=============================
I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.
- $$$MR. MARKET$$$
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