Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

Greetings,

Concerning my past bottom call on ZICA,Im willing to put my money with it now.
In at 1.65,stop at 1.55,target way up.



thoughts by anyone?

cordially Tom

Tom,

Here is a table containing the lowest and highest government yields since 2/8/2005. The current yields are those in the "large 3/2/06" column, meaning that we are experiencing the highest yields right now.The 3 month bill is up over 2% which translates into an 80% increase in the interest rate. This is already a pretty good take-off, wouldn't you agree?

Do you have some short term notes maturing soon?

Greetings,

No I dont,but my Mother and Grandmother do,I advised to take the shortest term available through the banks that they deal with.

Why would anyone tie up money for 10 years when you can do better short term?Im sure theres a good reason,escapes me though.Thats all Rick Santelli talks about on CNBC every morning.

Too bad someone didnt tell MIke Tyson to put some of his 400mil. in these,at least he wouldnt be broke.

cordially Tom

[mimo_100]

Greetings,

Can you explain to an idiot,my understanding is that interest rates are ready to take off?

To a fixed income investor,short term notes are the play?

cordially Tom

Tom,

Here is a table containing the lowest and highest government yields since 2/8/2005. The current yields are those in the "large 3/2/06" column, meaning that we are experiencing the highest yields right now.The 3 month bill is up over 2% which translates into an 80% increase in the interest rate. This is already a pretty good take-off, wouldn't you agree?

Do you have some short term notes maturing soon?

My understanding is that if the 10 yr note falls to 102 from the current level of 108, then interest rates that one would pay for borrowing money would be around 8% from the current level of about 4.75 prime.

If the 10-Year fell to 102 the yield would be 4.25%. The 10-year is currently 98 7/8. Where are you getting 108 from?

[mimo_100]

My understanding is that if the 10 yr note falls to 102 from the current level of 108, then interest rates that one would pay for borrowing money would be around 8% from the current level of about 4.75 prime. <snip>

You are saying that the prime rate would move to 8%, not the yield on the 10 year note, right? WHEW!

Tim

[New-born baby]

Yes

I understood NB to mean that at a price of 102 on TY,
the yield would be around 8%.

Tim

My understanding is that if the 10 yr note falls to 102 from the current level of 108, then interest rates that one would pay for borrowing money would be around 8% from the current level of about 4.75 prime.

I also understand that if you buy a 105 NOV put, and it moves on down to 102, then we are looking at a price of $30,000 -$725 put cost=profit of $29,275

Greetings,

Can you explain to an idiot,my understanding is that interest rates are ready to take off?

To a fixed income investor,short term notes are the play?

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,

Sorry to bug ya again,would you consider a read on HTE?IM in at an average price of 28.72,and it appears to be struggling to break 30,as soon as it gets bought,sell orders come flyin.Do you see a whisper?

cordially Tom

BTW BEL 4.65 as I type,nxt stop mid 5s?

Careful with HTE....not lookin strong to me. Good luck! Yep, BEL. 5.15 and 6.35 next stops for BEL? In a 3 up.....not sure, don't have time now to look at it again. I'll update eod. Good luck!

[mimo_100]

I understood NB to mean that at a price of 102 on TY,
the yield would be around 8%.

Tim

[spikefader]

Spike, 6.73% and 5.495% aren't anywhere close to roughly equal; they're 22% apart. Double tops/bottoms need to be within 3% of each other to be statistically significant. Bulkowski talks about this in his books on chart patterns.

Humbly and creatively disagree. But you're a stickler for rules, we know that hehehe
I'll let the charts speak for themselves. Readers can decide if they like the interpretation or not.

Greetings Spike,

Sorry to bug ya again,would you consider a read on HTE?IM in at an average price of 28.72,and it appears to be struggling to break 30,as soon as it gets bought,sell orders come flyin.Do you see a whisper?

cordially Tom

BTW BEL 4.65 as I type,nxt stop mid 5s?

Be a little more flexible dude. The rule with double tops is the prices have to be 'roughly equal'. Patterns are relative to the volatility that surrounds the price action. I'm happy calling a double top. I don't insist you have to think so, and you really should consider adding the words "in my opinion" to your criticisms.

Spike, 6.73% and 5.495% aren't anywhere close to roughly equal; they're 22% apart. Double tops/bottoms need to be within 3% of each other to be statistically significant. Bulkowski talks about this in his books on chart patterns.

[spikefader]

Spike can you post your rules for the Creme of The Crop I can not locate them as always thanks much

Sure thing RL. I'm re-organizing all the stuff on Creme, and currently working on a blog where I can really have a simple way to find the rules, and info for each of them, the summary, the system performance etcetera. I aim to be much more organized with all of my stuff and people will be able to simply click a link I'll put in my signature that will take them to all that info. I'll get back to you on it and post here.

TYX is the symbol for the 30 year bond Yield. (see $TYX at stockcharts.com).

TNX is the symbol for the 10 year note Yield. (see $TNX at stockcharts.com).

The discussion is about the Price of the 10 year bond, not the yield.

You may be discussing price but NB was discussing yield. He projected an 8% yield on the 10-Year.

I was looking at the 30, not the 10. D'oh! Thanks for correcting me on that.

The monthly triangle breakout on TYX projects out to just under 6%.

[spikefader]

Thnx NB. Quite a r/r there at first glance! I'll do the mystery chart tonight!