Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[B.J]

And to those looking for longs in this market, I just have to say you are most definitely swimming upstream, esp. on loser stocks (stocks down 50+% in the last 3 months). Its a great time to either short the market, or stand back and let her fall where she will.

Yes, Newborn! Even prior to this week, I had a losing streak going with my trades. I'm not as sharp or experienced as most of the guys on here, but when NEARLY EVERY stock you pick loses, it tells you something smells. Glad I cut losses fairly short.

I have two left that I'm holding: MTXX and DW, up in both. But I'm strongly considering exiting everything so that I can take profits. After all, what is it they say? When the bears come, they take it all. Something like that I think.

Godspeed to all!

[New-born baby]

After all, what is it they say? When the bears come, they take it all. Something like that I think.

Wm O'Neil says, "When they raid the house, they usually take it all." That is most certainly true.

[Websman]

Wm O'Neil says, "When they raid the house, they usually take it all." That is most certainly true.

Ha! They're not getting a dime of my money! I've got it all locked away!!!

[spikefader]

Gotta love this forum! And the good Dr. teaching us the magic of charts!
GM down another $1.26 today. Next door neighbor says it is worse than he's ever seen in the plant, and he's been there 35 years. It's a hard rain gonna fall. Spike, you shorting GM and F?
Thank you Spike and all on this forum. God bless you all.

You're welcome New-born!

Yep, hard to deny the fascination and allure of a chart that speaks

We just gotta learn the language I tell ya!

And not only that, but we gotta spot the lying charts early! Because some of 'em, as you well know, are just straight out fibbers!

Even the best fib charts fib! har har

Oh GM! The pain! I saw the opportunity

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=708

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=709

just didn't give me the perfect entry I wanted
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=726
and stopped out twice

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=16290&postcount=2581

then headed into the gap and I wondered about that http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/attach...tachmentid=880
but it turned out that it just needed to form a better bear flag on the weekly

[dmk112]

Spike,

Are you bear now? Did vector go bearish?

How low can we go now?

[spikefader]

Spike,

Are you bear now? Did vector go bearish?

How low can we go now?

Yep, here's my bearish declaration post http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=3123
Vector closed bearish.

[spikefader]

.....NEARLY EVERY stock you pick loses, it tells you something smells. Glad I cut losses fairly short.

I have two left that I'm holding: MTXX and DW, up in both. But I'm strongly considering exiting everything so that I can take profits. After all, what is it they say? When the bears come, they take it all. Something like that I think.

Godspeed to all!

lol you got that right.

Hey, for MTXX, here's a few thoughts:

[B.J]

lol you got that right.

Hey, for MTXX, here's a few thoughts:

Hey, Spike, I must be learning. I was thinking the exact same thing (short channel bounce) today.

To your point "minor channel, but...", well, horizons in bear markets get much shorter, no?

Webs, quit your gloating. Have you ever heard Spock say "Ha"?

[scifos]

Yes, all good reasons to use a tight stop and go for the perfect entry. I just looked at the weekly again, it sets up for a 12345abc c long entry (the 5 has a smaller 5 waves in it). Definitely worth it. If the c fails, the usual warning applies

Question is, is it at the c pivot yet or not? and there really is very little volume support below it, the closest support is way down, like NBB said. I think its one to watch and learn from, but probably keep my money aside right now.


As for the comment about rising interest rates hurting home builders, that's not necessarily true. I read a great article from Gregory Spear about interest rates and how they really don't affect homebuilder's balance sheets. Don't remember the jist of it though.

[scifos]

Just a little info I read tonight: (sadly)
Nasdaq down 12.26% YTD
Dow down 6% YTD

From what I understand, Naz 12% correction is about normal (not to say its any fun).

[scifos]

Ha! They're not getting a dime of my money! I've got it all locked away!!!

Me too, I've been cash since March 8th. Sometimes the sidelines are the best investment.

[Websman]

Me too, I've been cash since March 8th. Sometimes the sidelines are the best investment.

You'd be amazed at the number of fools I know that have their whole retirement tied up in the market. Not a good plan...

[spikefader]

Hey, Spike, I must be learning. I was thinking the exact same thing (short channel bounce) today.
To your point "minor channel, but...", well, horizons in bear markets get much shorter, no?
Webs, quit your gloating. Have you ever heard Spock say "Ha"?

Great!
When you describe it as short channel bounce I gather you mean upper channel line tag. Yes, it's a minor channel, and in a bear market we are probably wise to target short like that.

But as far as upper line tags, they don't always happen so quickly. It all depends on the price action leading up to it. With MTXX it was pretty tight and rangebound for a month or so. Had action been more volatile during that time, the channel would have been a different.

And to highlight this, I've done an LNCE chart. Both are in FOOD GENERAL sector and although the chart are different historically, they both show a channel low on or around March 7, so let's look at the channel from March 7 and compare them. You can see the more volatile price action with LNCE that has led to it's current wide channel. The most significant day is March 15 for LNCE. That day has allowed channel traders that are still long today to have every reason to target higher than MTXX. So it's all about volatility and price action. Trade what the chart shows you and sell resistance and you'll maximize your profits.



"Webs, quit your gloating. Have you ever heard Spock say "Ha"? " LOL, yeah, Webs has got the be THE most emotional Vulcan I've ever met!

[spikefader]

Question is, is it at the c pivot yet or not? and there really is very little volume support below it, the closest support is way down, like NBB said. I think its one to watch and learn from, but probably keep my money aside right now.
As for the comment about rising interest rates hurting home builders, that's not necessarily true. I read a great article from Gregory Spear about interest rates and how they really don't affect homebuilder's balance sheets. Don't remember the jist of it though.

Yep, that is the question. When do you know it's a c completion? Well you'll know after-the-fact. All one can do is anticipate it. That's the problem with EW. You don't know a count is correct until much later, after the trading opportunity has presented itself. It's like everything else; nothing is certain, and one must be a speculative buyer, risking cash to do it. Find the potential pattern, look for things to confirm your entry, like double bottom near S2 or inverted SHS or triangle formation, and take the plunge. If it fails, and the chart still provides reason to be looking at it long, do it all over again. The trick to profitability over time is by ensuring your trades embrace a great risk reward ratio. If one buys support with a great r/r the edge is on one's side. But if one only buys once a chart has proven to us that the entry would have been a wise one, then we have missed the opportunity, are chasing price, and our risk is higher.

So for KBH, I'll be watching for a pattern on Monday and I'll attempt to be the smart money

[IIC]

You'd be amazed at the number of fools I know that have their whole retirement tied up in the market. Not a good plan...

I think it depends on how close they are to retirement. I wouldn't consider a 25 year old couple that knows nothing about the stock market who make regular contributions to an SP 500 tracking fund foolish.

Let's assume that they can each put in $3,000 yr in an IRA...that's $6,000 yr at a compounded 8% annually for 40 yrs(That's the avg since 1950). That would be $1.56 million. Now you could say that at an annual inflation rate of 3% that money would only be worth $484,000 in today's dollars. But let's also assume that their contributions increase by an average of 3% a year(and it could be a lot more if they did this in a 401k or something else)...now they are back to $1.56 mil. in today's dollars. And let's say they can get 5% annually on that amount...that is $78,000 yr in today's dollars plus anything else they might have accumulated; e.g. home equity...plus Social Security if it is still around.

Heck, if I was in that situation I'd retire right now.

Now, I know that it might be difficult for many 25 yr old couples to put in $6,000 yr right now...but they may also be able to put in a lot more later on...so I just made the example simplistic...IIC