Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Spike what do you think?
(AX)

Hmm. Well, pretty bearish weekly candle there....
but it still hasn't reached its gap up projection....
I would think the channel long (only a minor one) is vulnerable to failing right now but it IS a valid channel long as long as Thurs low holds. But that sure is a large gap. I think the gap will get tested, so the better play is to wait for that test to take long for the gap projection.

[spikefader]

I see it the same way an am sitting watching an in an ambush mode on SIRI.
Could you explain what and where a channel long would go to and what it is exactly. Real interested in this methodolgy and would like to understand more of it. Thanks Spike.
Sorry but just realized that I hadn't seen the top chart. Is the bottom green line the channel long point or area when you would begin to look for a long entry?

OK, yes, the green line is the area where my alarm would go off to alert me to start looking for intraday pattern to time my actual entry. I've posted many many examples of this in this thread so flick back and check some out. You wait for the channel long alert then look for a confirming intraday pattern to enter, such as double bottom or inverted SHS or triangle break. Then I put my stop under that pattern. If you don't have the time to look for patterns intraday, then you can simply take the intraday S2 location. I've posted charts of S2s before too, so look for those examples. If you don't use QT, you can work out your S2 by using a pivot calculator such as mtm's over at his site: http://www.masteringthemarkets.com/i...hp?page=calcis
or others like this: http://www.aboutforex.com/pivot.html
Previous posts of mine explain things like channel expansions and channel breaks and channel turn ups and downs. It's all in this thread; ya just have to wade through and find it. Actually some quite recent posts discuss the method.

[New-born baby]

Thank You Dr. Spike

Newborn,
Re the Canadian buck chart posted in this post http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=3405

It's just had a channel short. Might be as high as she goes for a while....

Thanks for the news, Spike. I tried to sell both Thur and Fri, but the stock wouldn't cooperate. (Yes, I know I am greedy). I set a limit order but it wasn't taken out either day. I am going to try again Monday, probably just bail with whatever profit I have.

Thank You!

[yaoyao]

Thanks for the news, Spike. I tried to sell both Thur and Fri, but the stock wouldn't cooperate. (Yes, I know I am greedy). I set a limit order but it wasn't taken out either day. I am going to try again Monday, probably just bail with whatever profit I have.

Thank You!

New Born, are you talking about selling you Canroys?

[New-born baby]

Yes and No

New Born, are you talking about selling you Canroys?

Yao--
Yes, and I plan to re-enter in about a month. I think the CD is going to retrace to .77-.79 from .80, and I plan on buying back in on a dip. Take profits now and re-enter later. You catch my drift.

AY is very strong right now. Isn't that your Can? You should be able to take a nice profit off of the table, shouldn't you?

[New-born baby]

Fdg

Spike,

Hope I don't bore you . . . FDG again. June 3, splits 3:1, and is going to pay a divy of about $3 per divided share. i.e., a $12-15 divy. However, the chart looks weak. In a definate downtrend, and last 4 weeks running has ended up flat on support. I am thinking that the hammer blows at the support base will soon cause it to collapse, and $70 looks as if it is in the cards. Is that how you see this chart? Or how about this: should I pray that FDG is building a base from which to explode even higher?


click on chart, then click again to enlarge.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Hope I don't bore you . . . FDG again. June 3, splits 3:1, and is going to pay a divy of about $3 per divided share. i.e., a $12-15 divy. However, the chart looks weak. In a definate downtrend, and last 4 weeks running has ended up flat on support. I am thinking that the hammer blows at the support base will soon cause it to collapse, and $70 looks as if it is in the cards. Is that how you see this chart? Or how about this: should I pray that FDG is building a base from which to explode even higher?


click on chart, then click again to enlarge.

I see a clear triangle on the daily. Play the break of it. I'm thinking it breaks down, but that's just gut feeling.

[dmk112]

Next week is sure going to be interesting, Look at this, we are at the resistance level (which was support for a while). I'm thinking we may not be able to break it just yet... we'll see

[Runner]

Spike, I thought you would not understand. I agree that entry in SIRI much past 4.90 is late to the party. The way I see it is that aggressive buyers bought off the 4.36 bottom, This point marked a Market structure low for SIRI. In fact these initial buyers don’t play around and appears some may have sold off the 5.47 high. They looked at the chart and said ooops resistance. These same buyers will now short SIRI back down. Once again they don’t play and any strength into SIRI they cover and may or may not flip and go long. I think the next wave up after a market structure low is put in will have a little more power. Think about it. How many people now are stalking this stock right now?

Many more buyers will jump in the game and try to ride this dog for every Penney they can make. Most of them will not have a stop point, a target point, or anything. All they know is SIRI is moving and I don’t want to be left behind. These traders are more committed to the stock and in fact most hate the fact if they are wrong and the thing crashes, but then after a while the Johnnie come lately’s will jump on board and the will more then likely be the bag holders. These traders will panic in a heartbeat and Think about it history repeats it’s self in the market. This very same thing happened last nice pop SIRI made…lo This very same thing happens in every stock out their, at least I think.

I’ve been experimenting with market structures, waves and fibs. I will simply find a market structure and jump in if I get a signal or wait it out until a market structure high has been put in. Once I see a MSH I can not plot my target for the limit wave move up and also the total projection. If I bot off the Low I’ll sell near the first structure high and move back into stalking mode or short.

Doubt if I was able to explain this in such a manner that you get a glimpse, but as time passes I’m sure I’ll have things more refined. This method I’m trying also works on all time frames, weather 5 min or weekly.

Only stock I think I’ve help overnight was GAP this week. I’m still Bearish and have been in this posture all year.

[spikefader]

dmk, nice chart thanks. Resistance is resistance until it isn't.

[spikefader]

Runner,

One day I may try to get up to speed on all that MSH and MSL and the whys and wherefores but I must admit that my interest is less towards learning a whole new stock trading methodology, but rather more towards dedicating my time to futures system development and trading. My interest in stocks seems to be declining every day, which is probably a good thing; I don't have to worry about holding a stock like ELN that plunges on devastating news. I've currently worked up eight very nice scalping/swing systems for ES, NQ and YM futures, and a handful of potentials that need more work. Some of these can be mechanically traded - even automated, so at some point I'd like to research automation programming to make that happen. One day I may become a true monkey at the wheel, just be sitting at my PC watching my automated mechanical systems open and close trades before my very eyes, watching the daily P&L totals chugalug along in a pleasing direction, and glancing over to read the banter thrown about this and other investment/trading sites.

[Runner]

Spike, this sounds very interesting. Automated systems might be high speed. You could be golfing while your system makes you cash. I think to a degree we all need to find a system that works for us. My blip of time in this market has been rather interesting especially my blunders. Crazy thing about it is you could write out your instructions and I could paste them on my screen and we still would get different results. Each trader given the same circumstances will do something different. The human emotion will kick in and for this we will act differently to any given situation. Your automated system you develop will not act on emotions but only what it has been programmed to do. I guess if you put enough effort into it. In reality you are taking your emotions and telling the program how to handle the situation. When this happens do this. Now give me your program and the results would be very close to the same thing. Sell your program after you make a few million and you would have people lined down the street to pay you for it. Next thing you know your chilling in the Bahamas drinking a nice tall beverage of your choice.

Never given automation much thought, heck I would not even know where to start as my experience is not yet to that level.

[yaoyao]

Yao--
Yes, and I plan to re-enter in about a month. I think the CD is going to retrace to .77-.79 from .80, and I plan on buying back in on a dip. Take profits now and re-enter later. You catch my drift.

AY is very strong right now. Isn't that your Can? You should be able to take a nice profit off of the table, shouldn't you?

Yes. I'm holding AY and am very happy with it. I'd be happier if CD cooperates. That's the dilemma: There are two factors that affect AY, CD and stock price. AY is perfoming well, CD is heading lower. I may hold mine through CD's correction.

[New-born baby]

That is fine

Yes. I'm holding AY and am very happy with it. I'd be happier if CD cooperates. That's the dilemma: There are two factors that affect AY, CD and stock price. AY is perfoming well, CD is heading lower. I may hold mine through CD's correction.

I think that is fine. AY is good long term hold. Divy check each month is nice. Prospects for oil look good.

[dmk112]

Spike, I got in on CKCM @ about 15.30....do you think setting a target on the gap fill a good plan?