Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[New-born baby]

CERS Hammered

CERS is taking a few shots in the head right now . . . down $.60

[spikefader]

AIN short from couple weeks ago. Closed for lunch money. Was lookin' ok there for a while. Next!

[New-born baby]

Usg

The weekly hasn't looked too bad though, although it's clearly weakening. That failed break over 50.20 has seen selling most of the days since; money clearly leaving....but major weekly channel support only a couple points lower. Don't see the r/r for a short just yet. I'll leave the call writing to you buddy. I'd rather limit my risk with puts. Speaking of selling calls, how did that USG play of your turn out. Got ugly pretty quickly and I remember posting a few questions on that play but you must have been busy and missed them. That's the kind of gap up against short call position that can bite pretty hard....

USG--I have to think a little bit--that was 200+ trades ago . Oh yeah, I bought USG, sold some covered calls, took a profit on the stock and bought back the calls at a loss, but made an overall small profit. I think the very next day it jumped $16 . . . .

KWK is taking a licking again today. VLO isn't too far behind

[spikefader]

YM thoughts:

[spikefader]

hehe . . .speaking of the Devil . . .hehe
BE AFRAID. BE VERY AFRAID. hehehehe

Thnx fer the heads up on your bias there NB hehe

But I'm a glass half full kinda guy. While selling resistance is smart, I think it's a little much to get "scared" at resistances.

You know me New-born....I'll holler strong caution from time to time. Right now, I'm not seeing the indications to be fearful.....just yet anyway.......not to say that won't happen tomorrow hehe. I react pretty quickly and when the indications are clearly there that the market has high 'potential' to get ugly I'll be steppin on the bear train......but right now, the market is bullish for me.

[spikefader]

$pike:
You lookin' to short the KWK? Man, that chart is ugly, esp. for an oil company. PnF says $25 will be in vogue again. . . but the option chain is pretty.

Hey, you looking for free money? Sell the VLO Jan $100 calls for $85. VLO ONLY has to double from here to make that call worth something.

The weekly hasn't looked too bad though, although it's clearly weakening. That failed break over 50.20 has seen selling most of the days since; money clearly leaving....but major weekly channel support only a couple points lower. Don't see the r/r for a short just yet. I'll leave the call writing to you buddy. I'd rather limit my risk with puts. Speaking of selling calls, how did that USG play of your turn out. Got ugly pretty quickly and I remember posting a few questions on that play but you must have been busy and missed them. That's the kind of gap up against short call position that can bite pretty hard....

[spikefader]

Swing long YM 11104. 30pt stop

[New-born baby]

KWK--short

$pike:
You lookin' to short the KWK? Man, that chart is ugly, esp. for an oil company. PnF says $25 will be in vogue again. . . but the option chain is pretty.

Hey, you looking for free money? Sell the VLO Jan $100 calls for $85. VLO ONLY has to double from here to make that call worth something.

[spikefader]

What's up Spike, you ought to pin that up with NBB fear charts.

heh, ya. But if the YM does like the DOW has done with its recent diamond, it'll bust to the upside.... But funny how this YM pattern coincides with bearish broadening DOW daily. And it's right at major trend line resistance for the DOW. Price seems to have taken out the pink line a little....but still has work to do...

[spikefader]

Buy support? Did you mean Buy resistance?

No, I meant buy support. That yellow line is the area you want to buy on a return of price to that support.

[New-born baby]

Speaking of the Devil . . . .

What's up Spike, you ought to pin that up with NBB fear charts.

hehe . . .speaking of the Devil . . .hehe
BE AFRAID. BE VERY AFRAID. hehehehe



While the NASDAQ has been weak, the Transportation Index and the DOW have been strong, so it
is relevant that we look at both the Transports and the DOW this morning relative to what is happening
in the markets.

First, let's look at the Transportation Index. In the very beginning of November, the Transports
broke their resistance line to the upside and that started it new upper Channel movement outlined
with green lines below.

Note that in that entire period of time, there have been 4 bounces off of the Channel's upper resistance
line, with the fourth occurring last week. Four unsuccessful attempts on this resistance line means
that this is a resistance line to respect.

As each of the previous attempts resulted in a pullback on the Transports, the odds are that it will
pull back again this week.

The DOW is also testing an important resistance point as we enter the week.

To get a fair look at the DOW, we will look at both a "line chart" and a "bar chart". (The line chart only shows
the end of day prices on the DOW.)

The Line chart below shows a 2 year resistance line with its 3rd. attempt now occurring for trying to break
through the resistance. The price resistance on the line chart is 11128 and Friday's close was just below that.
A look at the DOW's bar chart also shows that its resistance is at hand. However, a bar chart shows that
the resistance for the DOW is somewhat higher at 11206.
********
The point is, that both the DOW and the Transports are now simultaneously at major resistance points.
******************
Noteworthy, is where the DOW's Power Money Flow is at. Note that normal DOW up and down moves
coincide with the Power Money Flow going into distribution or accumulation. During the last 10 months,
the DOW's Power Money Flow has been in a slightly up moving channel ... without an strong trend.

Within the channel, it has been bouncing from the top to the bottom. Last week, the fast black
Power Money indicator rose above the red trend line and the DOW moved up with it.
**********************************
What you need to think about: In all likelihood, the DOW will have a day this week with its
"high for the day" reaching the 11206 mark.

Ask yourself this question: "When it does, do I think the DOW will charge through this 2 year major
resistance line .... or will it bounce off and retreat back down like in the other two occurrences?

A sustainable break above the major resistance line would signify a new important rally unfolding with
supporting economic conditions and expanding corporate profits. Is that what is now occurring in the markets?
**********************************************

Be afraid. Be very afraid. hehehehe

Buy support? Did you mean Buy resistance?

[spikefader]

HURC was on the 'c' stalk sheet and offers a long set up this morning. Flat earnings caused the drop today it seems.

Further charts:


EDIT: I note support entry at 29.40 has filled now.....

[Adam]

YM chart I pondered last night.....

What's up Spike, you ought to pin that up with NBB fear charts.

[spikefader]

HURC was on the 'c' stalk sheet and offers a long set up this morning. Flat earnings caused the drop today it seems.