Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[mystiky]

Any updates to SGR?

Spike, few days ago I asked you about SGR to which you gave me a great detailed reply.

Today's action (gap-up and reversal) seems to have come on large volume. Do you have any updates on the DAILY charts for SGR?

I am trying to figure out if 22.75 area is support or 22.

Thanks again!

Here are the weekly thoughts for SGR.


Daily chart: also still an expanding short today. BUT; there's a clear broadening triangle formation over the last 6 months, so the play is let it break out and sit in ambush for a correction back to support. That way you avoid holding the bag on a failed breakout/triple top. If it's truly a valid broadening pattern, it will correct, and there will be an ideal smart time to enter, whether it's at price support or channel support, or aggressive time to take it long on a channel turn up later. This one is definately worth following, and give a heads up if I fail to post the correction after the breakout.

[spikefader]

@runner: thanks.

@noshady: backatcha ELN is still bullish bias as I see it. The last signal for a trade was the channel turn up and I bidded low for a couple days but it didn't come back for me and I took my eye off it this week. Sounds like you'd be better off straddling something more comfortable hehe

But seriously, are you meaning you're straddling with options and stock combination or just figuratively speaking 'on the fence' or you have a position long? It sure isn't the best chart out there right now. There's plenty of movers and shakers and comfy rides ELN is like a thorn in my side of late. I just wish it would get on with it and bust the resistance if its going to! And not sell off straight away.

Point and Figure pattern is bullish with a $14.50 target after a bullish triple top breakout last month.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=eln,P

@Thomrich, AAPL Sept calls; yep a gamble play. I wouldn't trade the out of money Sept options now. I'd still trade in the money for a daytrade, but that's it. Out of money in the last week is pretty tricky to profit from in my experience, and is the risk really going to be worth the reward?

EENC: expanding channel short today (no intraday pattern to confirm). Maybe a runaway, so I'll be watching.

@ mystiky; I'd say 22.75.

[noshadyldy]

spikefader vbmenu_register("postmenu_26494", true);
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2004
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@runner: thanks.

@noshady: backatcha ELN is still bullish bias as I see it. The last signal for a trade was the channel turn up and I bidded low for a couple days but it didn't come back for me and I took my eye off it this week. Sounds like you'd be better off straddling something more comfortable hehe

But seriously, are you meaning you're straddling with options and stock combination or just figuratively speaking 'on the fence' or you have a position long? It sure isn't the best chart out there right now. There's plenty of movers and shakers and comfy rides

*******************
Thanks Spike! (now you have me ever so pleasantly wondering why they call you "spike")

[mystiky]

SGR did not hold

@ mystiky; I'd say 22.75.

[/QUOTE]

Spike...

Looks like the charts did not work this time around.... as I am typing, SGR is trading at 21.90 - below what both of us tought would be support level(s).

O well.... on to the next security....

[spikefader]

Dow futes swing long: was filled a little while ago at 10715. High expectations, but will stick to a 30 point stop.

Stopped out this morning and back to stalking another entry. Still bullish and see bargains out there today. Vector isn't threatening to roll over bearish yet.

[tokyojoeskid]

sndk jan 06 call

Spike can I get your reading on SNDK, I think if it blows past 42.5 it gonna really fly. The volume today looks great. I am thinking of buying some Jan 06 50 calls

thanks
Tjk

[spikefader]

Spike...
Looks like the charts did not work this time around.... as I am typing, SGR is trading at 21.90 - below what both of us thought would be support level(s). O well.... on to the next security....

Hold your horses heh 22.75 was a good place to start looking for intraday confirmation. An intraday chart shows inverted SHS and neckline break at 21.95. There is your play right there with a stop under lod or 4% or anywhere in-between that fits your risk profile, and target (broadening formation) $28.85, so that's 31% profit target risking 1.15% if stop under lod, which is r/r of 27 or sumfin Exquisite like that

And a few words on 'charts did not work'.......that is one way to look at it, but for me it's not a matter of a chart 'working' or not working. It might be more accurate to say it 's the plan that works or doesn't work. But if you want to get technical, in fact, if one has a plan and follows it, it's always going to work - whether it's for a loss or a gain. Plans always work. They may not work out profitable, but they work. Now if you add money to the equation it gets more complex because emotion is in there. Did a plan that was unprofitable really work? Well, it didn't work to increase your money, but it worked if it stopped you out for 4% loss and you watch the chart drop to -50%. Sure - it worked then saved you from a big loss. Did it work when it stopped you out at -4% only to see it bounce to +%50? One might rush and say no that didn't work....but as hard as it is to see, it did work for you. You got what you paid for; you got limited exposure to the downside, regardless of what price did after the trade.

@noshady I'm not touchin' that one! haha

[spikefader]

Spike can I get your reading on SNDK, I think if it blows past 42.5 it gonna really fly. The volume today looks great. I am thinking of buying some Jan 06 50 calls

thanks
Tjk

Why don't you wait and buy the handle on that big weekly cup?

[spikefader]

...bargains out there today.

Hope you all enjoyed the sale, cuz it's over for today it seems.

[mystiky]

Spike,

Thanks for the education. I now see exactly what you mean. Perhaps if SGR holds 21.60's tommorow, I will give it a try on the long side.

Hold your horses heh 22.75 was a good place to start looking for intraday confirmation. An intraday chart shows inverted SHS and neckline break at 21.95. There is your play right there with a stop under lod or 4% or anywhere in-between that fits your risk profile, and target (broadening formation) $28.85, so that's 31% profit target risking 1.15% if stop under lod, which is r/r of 27 or sumfin Exquisite like that

And a few words on 'charts did not work'.......that is one way to look at it, but for me it's not a matter of a chart 'working' or not working. It might be more accurate to say it 's the plan that works or doesn't work. But if you want to get technical, in fact, if one has a plan and follows it, it's always going to work - whether it's for a loss or a gain. Plans always work. They may not work out profitable, but they work. Now if you add money to the equation it gets more complex because emotion is in there. Did a plan that was unprofitable really work? Well, it didn't work to increase your money, but it worked if it stopped you out for 4% loss and you watch the chart drop to -50%. Sure - it worked then saved you from a big loss. Did it work when it stopped you out at -4% only to see it bounce to +%50? One might rush and say no that didn't work....but as hard as it is to see, it did work for you. You got what you paid for; you got limited exposure to the downside, regardless of what price did after the trade.

@noshady I'm not touchin' that one! haha

[spikefader]

Spike,

Thanks for the education. I now see exactly what you mean. Perhaps if SGR holds 21.60's tommorow, I will give it a try on the long side.

OK, and if you can sneak a peak at the chart every half hour or so I challenge you to take the time to look for an intraday pattern. You don't have to watch it closely the whole time; just when it's looking juicy. And only when it's vulnerable, go in for the kill. Plan the trade, trade the plan. Maybe even post the trade to get feedback from others. I know many people don't have time to sit and watch constantly. But it might be possible to set alerts and take the occasional look.

[spikefader]

Please sir, may I have some more? (guidance!)

MORE!?


hehe. OK, noshady, here's another serving of porridge for you ....

[dmk112]

Hope you all enjoyed the sale, cuz it's over for today it seems.

I don't like how the indices closed, but we'll see tomorrow.

[noshadyldy]

Thanks again Spike! It did break 8.74 support and barchart has the next one at 8.47. After hours has the stock at 8.50. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see it ground down before it rises high. Actually expect it to some extend. I'm short
at present but with a stop cover carefully set.

[IIC]

Spike...Don't you think it is about time to change your Avatar???