Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

IPIX spikefade

The first spike up on a minute chart would have you short somewhere between 23 and 23.70 holding nicely now as she's falling.

[spikefader]

Thanks, Spikefader, I think I will go with the 50% retracement considering the huge gap up late week. Momo players buy hard when a stock is accelerating, but Momo players sell even harder when they start decelerating.
Michael

Good plan. Channel action today suggests 25.00ish is channel support now. The way it is going, the small channel will expand soon and wipe out the long signal.

[mimo_100]

Why is StockCharts so different?
Tim

There are often going to be different charts, as each site have their own data provider, and it's impossible to be exact, as odd trade transactions occur on one exchange and not on another - thus the reason for the difference.

Sorry for not being more precise in my question.

If you click on this,

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?OFG

the daily chart for OFG shows a high of 32.94 and a low of 24.65 around the first of February. How can StockCharts have two different values for
these days if they are using the same provider? Perhaps just a mistake,
but if we base fibonacci levels on wrong numbers, then we are in trouble
aren't we?

Thanks.

Tim

T

[spikefader]

Warning to longs OFG

This one not looking too good technically.

[spikefader]

Sorry for not being more precise in my question.
If you click on this,

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?OFG

the daily chart for OFG shows a high of 32.94 and a low of 24.65 around the first of February. How can StockCharts have two different values for
these days if they are using the same provider? Perhaps just a mistake,
but if we base fibonacci levels on wrong numbers, then we are in trouble
aren't we?
Tim

AH! Gotcha. I aplogise for my quickly created charts. I was obviously off with that FIB extension there. I'll point out now that my charts will be off here and there with FIB numbers. I'm not relying on the numbers being 'exact' to the penny, I'm simply using it as a tool to get a picture and don't need it precise for my purposes. Please excuse me for this.

Charts in this thread may, due to desire for speed in daytrading, be displaying FIB prices etc. that are not precise to the penny. Hope that's OK, I simply don't have time to make them perfect.

[jiesen]

thanks

thanks for the insight, spike. I respect your opinion, but at the same time hope you're wrong!

[The Photon]

TRMM

Spike, What are your thoughts of a position in this stock? TRMM- Thanks The Photon

[spikefader]

Re: thanks

thanks for the insight, spike. I respect your opinion, but at the same time hope you're wrong!

Sure. Take the thread for what it is - technical search for perfect entries and logical exits. It'll be a thread probably more popular for those prepared to do more work on their entries and exits.

But while you bring up the concept of hope, my comment would be that if you are a serious trader and you want to be successful in ALL market conditions (bull, bear and range), you've got to get rid of hope. Hope has no place in trading and the disasterous consequences of hoping is seen in the faces of anyone holding Enron on the way down - hoping the whole time it would come back. Successful traders will tell you have a plan and trade it. If you are diversified and can afford one of your picks to die, or you're good at hedging, then cool. But if you're putting your eggs in only a few baskets, then hope will kill you in the end. Many will argue that the secret to successful trading is risk and money management combined with discipline. I agree 100 percent with that. The idea is to let your winners run, not your losers.

[Bakxs]

Intro to Technical Analysis...

Good Morning Spike.

Would you recommend a good website (or a book if none are available) that sums up many of the terms and theories you employ in your analysis.

I know some of them... but it would be nice to have a resource to reference.

Thanks again for your great feedback. And big props to $$MM$$ for making this all possible.

--Bakxs

[jiesen]

hope

point taken about the hoping bit.

But I do have a few reasons not to take your advice, and they are not in any way related to your analysis.

First, I am trying to stick to a plan in all of these picks, which consists of a simple strategy of buy and hold. This is purely based on the fundamentals that $$MM's screen uses, and which I understand, more or less. I figure most deviations from this plan, especially based on suggestions which I don't understand, would probably not benefit me.

Secondly, your TA is way over my head. It makes no sense to me, and that's only because I'm not educated enough in the area. Maybe with some work, or if I follow your ideas some more, I'll understand it, but for now, I can't justify acting on any TA, really... just don't trust my own skills there for it.

[ForeverInvesting]

Re: OFG

Spikefader,

I had set my limit order to sell OFG at $30.70 and, of course, my order did not get filled. My order probably was not filled because I placed a limit order. Stop orders are just as bad as limit orders. With stop orders, the problem is the bid-ask spread, especially with low volume securities like OFG.

My view is that I probably should hold OFG. What is your take, Spikefader?

I am not disappointed with missing the MAGS trade since it could have easily continued going down instead of rebounding back to the lower $30s. There is always a better trade, risk/reward wise, out there. The only problem is finding the better risk/reward ratio trades. I guess I learned something in school (I am a recent finance major) after all.

By the way, I subscribe to StockCharts.com as you do. Do you use the Scan Engine to find trading ideas? If you do, can you post or email me (at [email protected]), which ever you feel is appropriate, your Scan Engine trading screen?

Thanks,
Michael

[spikefader]

Hello Spike 2 questions:
1.) Could you give me your thoughts on PRFT
2.) What books or sources would your reccommend a person w/ very limited TA knowledge, gain a very good base and more?
Thanks
mi6

Question 1:


Question 2: I've not bought one book believe it or not. Got everything I need online. Just get in to live chat stock trading rooms and watch the successful traders and ask questions. A good start is to either look through Stockcharts.com for TA stuff, or google for Elliott wave, FIBS, channels, patterns like bullflags, wedges, head and shoulders, support and resistence, where volume fits in. Just remember that there is no holy grail and nothing works perfectly. TA is only a tool to be used where you find a use for it. You need to find TA that suits your personality and trading style. Some people like to play momo and breakouts, others like to fade moves. Whichever TA tool you choose, you must build discipline around it so that it becomes your edge. The tool isn't your edge necessarily, but yoru discipline is. Whatever indicator or TA principles you blend into your trading, remember that risk management is integral in every successful trading plan. Control of emotion is the biggest hurdle to succes.

[spikefader]

Re: TRMM

Spike, What are your thoughts of a position in this stock? TRMM- Thanks The Photon

I'd put an order in to buy it at today's low and look for a double bottom. Or, wait for 20.00 and buy it there. Channels at this stage say it could bounce well.

[spikefader]

Re: Intro to Technical Analysis...

Good Morning Spike.
Would you recommend a good website (or a book if none are available) that sums up many of the terms and theories you employ in your analysis.
I know some of them... but it would be nice to have a resource to reference.
Thanks again for your great feedback. And big props to $$MM$$ for making this all possible.
--Bakxs

You're welcome. I listed a couple of websites earlier in the thread that have some very smart traders posting there. No books I could recommend, sorry.

[spikefader]

Re: hope

point taken about the hoping bit....stick to a plan...simple strategy buy and hold.....purely based on fundamentals that $$MM's screen uses....deviations from plan, especially based on suggestions which I don't understand, would probably not benefit me...TA is way over my head..makes no sense to me....

Yep, and fair enough too. You've got your plan, and if you stick to it, then you can reward yourself no matter if the stocks rise or fall. That's the kind of discipline you need. If there is risk management in there, and it works for you, and at the end of the day, year or lifetime, you're profitable then you've done the right thing for you. TA isn't for everyone, and can only cause frustration when a person can't find anything consistent. It takes a LOT of hard work for sure.