Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[Runner]

ForeverInvesting, what is your formula in the lower screen colored in blue for? I can’t read it. Looks like you muted the Volatility and replaced it with TSV 18? Hey nice chart

edit: Nevermind I see what you did. You lowered the other window, my bad!!

[ForeverInvesting]

Yes, I should have blacked the blue indicator. Sorry for the confusion.

Now, I blacked the blue indicator out.

[Lyehopper]

I must have missed something here.

Lye, several ways to play it.

1st: Short the stock after the bullish breakout of the green ascending triangle by the purple indicator line. That breakout signifies potential for volatility to rise to the X target line in the days ahead (which is what eventually happened you'll note). So that bullish breakout of the indicator coincided with a bullish day in the stock, so it's a gift to short into that strength. Make sense? (EDIT: actually, the purple line may not have 'broken out' until the day after that strenght, and in any case, that breakout is the reason you're shorting, whether it's into strength or not)(and in fact, it's even better that volatility is bullish during selloff in stock price - this means that price action in the stock is suddenly moving IN LINE with increasing volatility, which is like a confirmation that the short side is good).

2nd: You could wait for the breakout of the indicator to fail to support areas, i.e. the yellow channel line where I have written the yellow 'entry' and you see the gray line falling, that's the move you are catching. The indicator bounced from that yellow channel support and rallied to the X target, which is volatility rallying, which coincides with selloff of the stock.

3rd: short entry in the stock about 4 days ago when the purple line retraced back to the green horizontal ascending triangle support area. You'll note it bounced from that support, and gave the short profit over the last 4 days.

4th: this is the most aggressive and late play, is to short the boom bullish break by the purple line out of the yellow channel, which was close of Thursday, to catch the volatile move down on Friday.

So as you see, it's all about equal and opposite nature of volatility as an indicator. Increased volatility usually corresponds to selloff in stocks. All you have to do is find the breakout/support areas of the indicator, and short the stock based off that 'action'.

Exactly what indicator is that "purple indicator line"? and what stock was this again?

[spikefader]

Lye,
It's DELL, and the indicator is some volatilty indicator that Runner posted about.

[New-born baby]

Short Dell

Spike,
Dell Popped up today--excellent time to short into strength??

[spikefader]

Wait for 33.30 and then a pattern I think.

[New-born baby]

A plan

Wait for 33.30 and then a pattern I think.

Sounds like a good plan. ThankS!

[mystiky]

SWSI - buy or not?

Noticed that SWSI debuted on the IBD 100 list this week at #33.

Spike, anything to say about the chart?

MAC-D looks like it wants to go higher?

[spikefader]

Noticed that SWSI debuted on the IBD 100 list this week at #33. Spike, anything to say about the chart? MAC-D looks like it wants to go higher?

Cool! I'm still patiently holding my second position from here and I think it's owed a 5th up. Upper channel target of 32.00 now. Best recent entry was the channel long day 6 days ago, but if you want to be aggressive and chase the channel turn up from Friday, the play is long at 24.25 current prices but the r/r isn't as good now.

[mystiky]

Cool! I'm still patiently holding my second position from here and I think it's owed a 5th up. Upper channel target of 32.00 now. Best recent entry was the channel long day 6 days ago, but if you want to be aggressive and chase the channel turn up from Friday, the play is long at 24.25 current prices but the r/r isn't as good now.

Spike,

I was thinking of buying in some at around 23.50 and not up here. My question is this, where is the "long channel" broken? Is it at $22.60, $22 or $21.60 support lines?

Thanks again! And congrads on a nice entry at low $20's!

[Lyehopper]

Spike, Look at IRIS intraday....

IRIS was moving up nicely in a "channel Long" right?

Then it broke below the channel.... Question: If daytrading it long would you have sold there?

I use Ameritrade, how can I copy, write up and post their intraday charts?

[spikefader]

Spike,

I was thinking of buying in some at around 23.50 and not up here. My question is this, where is the "long channel" broken? Is it at $22.60, $22 or $21.60 support lines?

Thanks again! And congrads on a nice entry at low $20's!

Thnx. Yep, that would be a good entry I think; better r/r anyway. The intraday pivot tomorrow is 23.99 and S1 is 23.39, so you're in the right area.

The channel long isn't broken until 21.60 fails. It's an expanding channel long remember, which says caution for long side in my system. I'll be watching closely at any channel short setup in the next few days, and look for confirming pattern and will contemplate whether I should close it based on that. I am going to be conservative with it, and not presume too much with it, especially with my market bias being bearish. The expansion is reason to exit a the next channel short setup and that's what I'll be doing. It might give that signal before you get your fill at your price, so careful if it does because that will change my bias for it.

I hope it just booms through it without an intraday pattern so I can hold it, but that's just emotional hope and I'll act according to the chart; or at least try to! heh.

[spikefader]

IRIS was moving up nicely in a "channel Long" right?
Then it broke below the channel.... Question: If daytrading it long would you have sold there?
I use Ameritrade, how can I copy, write up and post their intraday charts?

OK, my channel longs are only off the daily only; I don't use them intraday. I like patterns intraday. If I HAD been long, I would have been looking for this profit-taking tag (or near tag), which was the resistance to sell at. That's the logical place to start looking. And not only that, there was a confirming SHS at the top on the 1 min chart (see below) and that neckline break was the time to sell it. Sold off hard this afternoon and I blame this setup. It's actually a valid short setup this one, with stop over hod over SHS.



confirming pattern intraday:

[spikefader]

I use Ameritrade, how can I copy, write up and post their intraday charts?

Consider a direct access broker like IB or MyTrack dude. There is a difference if you're getting active (I'm assuming you are). Better fill times, and more control over your orders, but above all it's a distinct edge you'll appreciate once you have it. Others here have made the switch and are happier.

But to post, here's what you need to do:

Install irfanview or just use mspaint that is already in Windows (start, run, type mspaint, hit enter).

Take a screenshot (hit Prt Scr on your keyboard) and paste it into irfanview or mspaint (ctrl+v). Trim it and add notations and lines etc and drag a box over the final product area and hit ctrl+c to copy that box. Then paste that into a new mspaint or irfanview box (ctrl+v). So what you're left with is your final image. Then save that image to a file. Then go to imageshack and upload it, and copy the link they give you (ctrl+c) called "Hotlink for forums (1)" and paste that link into your MM post here and the chart will appear when you submit or preview the post.

[mystiky]

TJX - anymore upside room?

Spike,

Just noticed that TJX has bounced back pretty hard. What do you think about it? Volume looks pretty good, and it finally close above 50-day.

Do you see resisatnce at around 22.10, or might it actually think about running to almost 23?

Thanks again!