Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

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  • spikefader
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2004
    • 7175

    And if anyone is wondering what difference BCSI would have made to the portfolio averages, it would only be an additional -0.7%. See what diversification can do! Lowers the risk dudes. BUT if one of the heavier allocated ones fell, say DJO with 3 positions, then it would make a -2% hit on the portfolio as it stands today. Which still isn't that much, but that risk increases as the elimination process proceeds.

    Comment

    • spikefader
      Senior Member
      • Apr 2004
      • 7175

      SCOTC Day 2 EOD


      Comment

      • spikefader
        Senior Member
        • Apr 2004
        • 7175

        Originally posted by Lyehopper
        Here ya go Spike some real stinkers, 196 stocks.... Sorted by RV.....
        OK, I'll filter these dogs for the real stinky ones

        Comment

        • Websman
          Senior Member
          • Apr 2004
          • 5545

          Originally posted by Websman
          The link doesn't work...Is that the subliminal message???
          I figured out why I wasn't getting your link Spike. It turns out that I had no program o run Mpegs on, so I added windows media player onto my system. (I thought I already had it) My PC is getting old, but I have a new system on the way.

          Anyways, I watched it and would have been scared, had it not been for my superior Vulcan nerves.

          Comment

          • Lyehopper
            Senior Member
            • Jan 2004
            • 3678

            Cool!!!!

            Originally posted by spikefader
            What??? No-one able to spot the subliminal message in this????
            Finally downloaded this (Thanks to my new Wild Blue!) ....just scared the PEE out of my wife.LOL

            Hey Spike!.... I turned the vol down just a little and told her to watch reeeaal close and listen caaaarefully....

            she put her face right up close to the screen.... AAAHHHAAHAHAHA!!!!!

            Thanks Spike!!! You're the best dude! I'm emailing it to my Mother-in-law now.....hehehehehe
            BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

            Comment

            • spikefader
              Senior Member
              • Apr 2004
              • 7175

              Originally posted by Lyehopper
              Finally downloaded this (Thanks to my new Wild Blue!) ....just scared the PEE out of my wife.LOL

              Hey Spike!.... I turned the vol down just a little and told her to watch reeeaal close and listen caaaarefully....

              she put her face right up close to the screen.... AAAHHHAAHAHAHA!!!!!

              Thanks Spike!!! You're the best dude! I'm emailing it to my Mother-in-law now.....hehehehehe
              lmbo! hehe

              Comment

              • Lyehopper
                Senior Member
                • Jan 2004
                • 3678

                Go Wireless Webs!!!! Go Wireless!!!!

                Originally posted by Websman
                I figured out why I wasn't getting your link Spike. It turns out that I had no program o run Mpegs on, so I added windows media player onto my system. (I thought I already had it) My PC is getting old, but I have a new system on the way.

                Anyways, I watched it and would have been scared, had it not been for my superior Vulcan nerves.
                Webs get you a laptop with.... INTC Centrino Mobile Technology dude! Then buy you a $75* wireless router (at BBY) and you have wireless internet DUDE!!!! You can then sit in the porch swing and enjoy the cool fall breeze and trade stocks ALL DAY LONG!!!! AWESOME! AWESOME! AWESOME! FREEDOM at last!!!!

                *Mine cost $130.... but it reaches out 300 freakin yards!.... which is 100 yards past my barn.... AWWWWWWESOME!!!!
                BEEF!... it's whats for dinner!

                Comment

                • dmk112
                  Senior Member
                  • Nov 2004
                  • 1759

                  Originally posted by spikefader
                  SCOTC: Another weak one bites the dust. CHRW loses it's change to become a Superstock as it stops out for -4%. Bidding at S1 5.40 for SYNC add.

                  CHRW looks like a pretty good potential Spike and it looks buyable here on this pullback. Maybe your inital buy points need to be adjusted as you bought CHRW very extended. Maybe you should make the inital buys with actual entries especially with setting a stop at only 4%, you're bound to get stopped out on many picks that may turn out to be good stocks (and maybe even super start stocks )

                  So I suggest either (1) Create entries or (2) allow looser stops.

                  Just some thoughts....
                  http://twitter.com/DMK112

                  Comment

                  • Websman
                    Senior Member
                    • Apr 2004
                    • 5545

                    Originally posted by Lyehopper
                    Webs get you a laptop with.... INTC Centrino Mobile Technology dude! Then buy you a $75* wireless router (at BBY) and you have wireless internet DUDE!!!! You can then sit in the porch swing and enjoy the cool fall breeze and trade stocks ALL DAY LONG!!!! AWESOME! AWESOME! AWESOME! FREEDOM at last!!!!

                    *Mine cost $130.... but it reaches out 300 freakin yards!.... which is 100 yards past my barn.... AWWWWWWESOME!!!!
                    Sounds great, but first I have to send $1400 to Dell for my XPS400 PC. I should get it on Thursday. It has all the bells and whistles...and a 19" flat panel monitor. My tickers and graphs should look awesome.

                    A laptop with wireless will be next.

                    Comment

                    • spikefader
                      Senior Member
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 7175

                      Originally posted by Websman
                      ... watched it and would have been scared, had it not been for my superior Vulcan nerves.
                      heh, I knew a Vulcan wouldn't have jumped.
                      What about lafter? Do you guys laff? Prolly not. I posted a link over at POTW that may at least get a smile outa ya.

                      Comment

                      • spikefader
                        Senior Member
                        • Apr 2004
                        • 7175

                        WTG Lye. You've got the speed dude. You'll never go back!

                        Comment

                        • spikefader
                          Senior Member
                          • Apr 2004
                          • 7175

                          Originally posted by dmk112
                          CHRW looks like a pretty good potential Spike and it looks buyable here on this pullback. Maybe your inital buy points need to be adjusted as you bought CHRW very extended. Maybe you should make the inital buys with actual entries especially with setting a stop at only 4%, you're bound to get stopped out on many picks that may turn out to be good stocks (and maybe even super start stocks )

                          So I suggest either (1) Create entries or (2) allow looser stops.

                          Just some thoughts....
                          Yes, great points here, thanks!

                          My reservations about waiting for pullback entries is this: The problem with trying to time entries is............well, just that...........the timing!

                          Fact 1: Real Creme will move from the get go, before a well-timed or retrace entry, and it's those ones that this system is depending on to momo clear of entry to make a buffer, to prove they're worth adding to, to provide small retraces to intraday support levels only, and then bulldoze ahead again.

                          It's pure momo factor in this system, which is why I chose PSAR on the hourly as one of the screens. I want the ones that are trending up solid and aren't pulling back...........to get clear and provide reason to exchange out the others while there's green leaders, which is what has happened.

                          Sure, I wished the whole port moved ahead and made those stopouts less than what they've been, but it's no big deal really, still well within limits, and it's only 5 of them cut at this stage (plus one imposter I had to cut for a 1.2% profit mind you haha there's a twist).

                          Yes, I'm sure I could play the system more conservatively and waited for pullback to get it working. But would probably require even MORE work than today was. I don't think I'm up for it at the moment Probably more importantly than convenience though, is had I waited for a pullback I would have missed SYNC, the current leader and perhaps the only thing between success and failure of the event. Who knows? Tomorrow does, and SYNC may turn out to stall and disappoint. But thus far it's earned the chance to succeed. It's still 2nd best out of all 112 (more on this in a minute).

                          Granted, the ones I'm eliminating may strengthen up and maybe even outperform the eventual system Superstar.

                          But the system Superstar will have carried the port when the port needed it and not outside the realm of the system structure, and that's what makes a stock great; that it will perform within the limits you set and make money. It'll be the Creamiest, not necessarily the best performer out of MM's dump.

                          Should I consider the timing issue more?? Perhaps.... and I will. More comments are welcomed. The passage of time and some hindsight will help us and this system, and I'm looking forward to getting that hindsight...cuz I think this whole concept is worth more thought.

                          Should I factor in a rule or two about broader market support/resistance areas?? I dunno, it starts gettin' pretty tricky then. Not sure about that.

                          And besides, a Superstock should do it's own thing independant of the market. It should stay strong in the face of a weak market; which SYNC has done by the way. SYNC is still 2nd out of 112 dump from yesterday's opening price at +5.92%.....the only one better is HSVLY at +7.3% from yesterday's open, BUT........ HSVLY has average daily volume of only 25,000 shares a day!!!! Eesh, steer clear of it for a system like this one I think. Check its chart out! Only 5 months ago it crashed over 50% in 4 days, from 7.57 to 3.58, so we can do without that kind of risk, and slippage is no doubt large for that light volume stock.

                          Thanks for the input and prompting the thoughts dmk! It's all good

                          Comment

                          • dmk112
                            Senior Member
                            • Nov 2004
                            • 1759

                            Spike, I know the work would probably be tremendous. I'm anxious to see the results of this! Good work.
                            http://twitter.com/DMK112

                            Comment

                            • mystiky
                              Senior Member
                              • Dec 2004
                              • 333

                              Spike, any update on PIXR?

                              Hi Spike -- I posted this yesterday, but you must have missed seeing it. So I am reposting this again here:

                              Hi Spike!

                              It's been about a week since I shorted PIXR at 57.40. It's being a bit more stronger then I anticipated but do you still agree with your previous comments?

                              I am leaning on trying to cover around 54.25, and don't mind waiting another week or two. It seems that it is only now starting to turn a bit lower. And I guess the other "good news" is that it never made a higher high since hitting 57.66 (and it retested it on two other occasions). But then again, it has not made any lower low's...

                              Your input is much appreciated....

                              Originally posted by spikefader
                              Dude. If you picked 57.40 based on the upper channel tag theory, then awesome work. No intraday pattern at your entry, but that really is a pretty lookin' entry during the spike up head formation. You nailed it 0.26 from the top, so congrats.

                              After this profit-taking tag you want to target any one of the gaps or channel supports. Tricky question that one. If you ponder r/r then if you're risking stop over 57.66, then your risk is only 0.5%, so even if you target the first gap support of 53.80 while that's only 6% profit, the r/r of 12 makes it an acceptable target. If you target the 2nd gap fill, that r/r becomes pretty amazing.

                              Stop to even, decide which gap, and sit back and see what the market hands you. I'd probably play it conservatively and cover at gap support. Good luck.

                              The charts:

                              [url="http://imageshack.us"][img]

                              Comment

                              • spikefader
                                Senior Member
                                • Apr 2004
                                • 7175

                                Originally posted by mystiky
                                Hi Spike -- I posted this yesterday, but you must have missed seeing it. So I am reposting this again here:

                                Hi Spike!

                                It's been about a week since I shorted PIXR at 57.40. It's being a bit more stronger then I anticipated but do you still agree with your previous comments?

                                I am leaning on trying to cover around 54.25, and don't mind waiting another week or two. It seems that it is only now starting to turn a bit lower. And I guess the other "good news" is that it never made a higher high since hitting 57.66 (and it retested it on two other occasions). But then again, it has not made any lower low's...

                                Your input is much appreciated....
                                Yep, same read still. It has stayed up there hasn't it, but the stop I recommend is still in place, so I'd be holding it. Remember, it's just an upper profit-taking tag that is the reasoning I see value in shorting - cuz profit-taking CAN be a tradeable move and lead to bigger things, something I think several charts at various times have revealed in this thread. but there's no guarantee just how much profit-taking there's gonna be......

                                Good luck!

                                Comment

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