Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

SCOTC:

AET and GYI are in the first day of a psar trend change, so they'll be cut tomorrow if that doesn't change. I'm also moving them to breakeven (on a combined average basis) so no loss will be tolerated on these.

[spikefader]

SCOTC update:

Creme is down to just 3 now! GOOG, MCO and ARS.

3 CHS positions (+1.8% +1% -2.8%) eliminated today for a breakeven average.
3 AET positions (+3.32% -0.36% and -1.84%) eliminated today at close for small average gain of 0.32% on the 3 (PSAR trend change).
2 GYI positions (+2.75% - 2.1%) eliminated today at close for small average gain of 0.27% on the 2 (PSAR trend change).

So those 8 eliminated positions flipped over at the close to MCO and GOOG, the strongest of the three.



I'm assuming the system average remains slightly positive, but I'll have to check this later.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Could you explain again how you are setting the stops and does it ever vary or is the same method used week to week? Thanks

billyjoe

[spikefader]

Spike,
Could you explain again how you are setting the stops and does it ever vary or is the same method used week to week? Thanks

billyjoe

Two simple stop out rules:
a) -4% on any position (some have had some slippage)
b) change of the daily PSAR to bearish (parabolic stop and reverse indicator).

For the PSAR eliminations to date I've waited for the dot to change on a closing basis and then closed out the positions the next day. Today however I didn't hold them overnight after bearish dot change. I figure why risk a gap down on something you're closing out, right?

And for CHS today I didn't want to take any loss on the average after being +3% at its best, so I moved stop to breakeven, and it happened to correspond with the changing PSAR, so I don't think the decision is out of whack with the intention or accountability of the system.

You'll recall that for the Slime series I used the hourly PSAR and that cut them very quickly. The daily offers more forgiveness.

A truly worthy Superstock is going to keep its daily psar bullish for a good 3 months or so, and give some nice gains. It's just a matter of hitting one at the right time.

Can GOOG, MCO or ARS do it this run?? Stay tuned folks!!



Whereas the top 3 are still bullish:

[tokyojoeskid]

Hey Spike,

I was wondering if you could give me an update on UTSI, It has had some huuuuggge downs and kind of looks like it is starting to have some life again. Do the charts say that this one has some potential?
Thanks,
tjK

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

I may have found a nice short finally,



It filled the gap down exactly,and hasnt been able to move past it.It appears to have money flow,but it looks as if volume is down.Could this be a "tumbler"?

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Hey Spike,

I was wondering if you could give me an update on UTSI, It has had some huuuuggge downs and kind of looks like it is starting to have some life again. Do the charts say that this one has some potential?
Thanks,
tjK

UTSI; a good one in review!

Posted this chart back in June .......



...........showing the channel short entry and gap resistance, and it was sold nicely in the months following, suffering 3 ugly gap downs. See how that original gap resistance has played out.

I was actually bearish on it way back in December 04 http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpo...postcount=1747 when it was still at 21.50, and generated a C short entry which from there it lost 75% of it's value at its worst.

Closed today at 8.40 I see, again approaching that gap resistance and acting rather bullish. Let's have a fresh look at the charts.

[spikefader]

Greetings,

I may have found a nice short finally,



It filled the gap down exactly,and hasnt been able to move past it.It appears to have money flow,but it looks as if volume is down.Could this be a "tumbler"?

cordially Tom

Great spotting Tom. This really is a good candidate on the short side, despite it's recent bullishness and moneyflow. The r/r is there anyway. But remember, that does count as an island reversal down there. i.e. the gap down, and the 2 penny gap up recently leaves the island there, but they fail just like bull flags fail. The weekly and daily biases are clearly short, and it's a valid setup. Good luck!!!!!

[tokyojoeskid]

Appreciate it Spike!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

I didnt bite on DRL,upon research it has been upgraded,and rumored to be taken over.I know this shouldnt affect logic in the charts,but I think a break either way will could be costly.Too much fear on my part.

Also have you seen SNAK has turned into SNAKE?Amazing how charts dont lie.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings again Spike,

Would you offer some insight into BOT and UARM?Both gettting butchered as of late.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

HITK long setup

Took a nibble on HITK just then.

[spikefader]

SCOTC:

Tragedy! GOOG is taken out! PSAR just turned bearish, and the average of the 8 positions it held stopped out for breakeven. Splitting those 8 between MCO and ARS at current prices, close enough to their pivot supports.

It between MCO and ARS folks. Stay tuned. ARS is the closest to the psar trend change, so the odds are in favor of MCO becoming the Superstock. Shoot billyjoe! Wouldn't that be sumfin!

[mooddude]

Spike, GOOG hit the upper channel. Although you explained before that it was just a resistance, in this case it was a long-term channel. It has a higher chance of failure.


Do you have any comments on PWAV?

[spikefader]

Draw a chart mooddude - show me what you're seeing.

I see GOOG has been booming the weekly long-term channel, which is very bullish action. I don't think it's done on the upside just yet, and weakness is a buying opportunity, although I'm not jumping in just yet. I'm stalking the Dec 420 calls +GOPLD. Might nibble a handful of 'em at 7.20 if it comes back to me... I'm seeing daily channel long and double bottom formation, although my lagging market bias system still says wait. Sheesh in the space of 12 minutes they've jumped from 7.00 up to 8.00. 15% in 12 minutes not bad hehe even Mr.M can't do THAT! I almost grabbed 'em at 7.00! doh.