Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

As suggested by CASH in his thread, AIN is a good short.
I agree whole-heartedly, and it's short pounce time if yer a stalkin' cat like me

Workin' nicely.

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 04:10 PM

Creme of the Crop #3 Closed as port average hits -4%.

OK folks, considering the broader market vulnerability and the fact that -4% loss was the original intended maximum risk for the Creme series, I've closed it out today.

As with any system, a trader's true edge is discipline and money management. In the spirit of that wisdom I think this is the route to go with Crop #3.

Stay tuned for Crop #4 when Ernie does his next data dump.

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 05:22 PM

YM: Holding short from 10813 at +48. Got an add signal back at 10776 and passed on it. I may add if it returns up there tonight. But I think I'd prefer more of a buffer.

Vector nicely bearish at close. Caution longs out there; it's a jungle right now.

**New-born baby** · 02-07-2006, 05:28 PM

Total crop failure.

Originally posted by spikefader

Creme of the Crop #3 Closed as port average hits -4%.

OK folks, considering the broader market vulnerability and the fact that -4% loss was the original intended maximum risk for the Creme series, I've closed it out today.

As with any system, a trader's true edge is discipline and money management. In the spirit of that wisdom I think this is the route to go with Crop #3.

Stay tuned for Crop #4 when Ernie does his next data dump.

I can't believe it. Total crop failure. Too bad we didn't have any crop insurance.

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by New-born baby

I can't believe it. Total crop failure. Too bad we didn't have any crop insurance.

lol I know it!

8 of the 11 have options: FCX, TRAD, NETL, ATI, JOYG, CERS, PETS and RYI. But only 4 of those 8 were weak and so only 36% of the crop was worth insuring! Perhaps not worth the cost of admission ... hehe

Ah well, Crop Series still profitable despite this failure. I'll forget the numbers so I'll post later on it.

**New-born baby** · 02-07-2006, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by spikefader

lol I know it!

8 of the 11 have options: FCX, TRAD, NETL, ATI, JOYG, CERS, PETS and RYI. But only 4 of those 8 were weak and so only 36% of the crop was worth insuring! Perhaps not worth the cost of admission ... hehe

Ah well, Crop Series still profitable despite this failure. I'll forget the numbers so I'll post later on it.

Yes, I always look at the option chain when I buy. I almost didn't buy BNT because it didn't sport any options. I should have taken the patient entry. I have watched it these last three days meet real resistance at the $22.25 mark--right where I bought it ($22.26 with commision).

Man, that screen was red today. Dow down only 87 points. Seemed like 8700 point drop today.

**TFred** · 02-07-2006, 06:15 PM

Greetings,

Since I got lucky and paid less for my crop,I still have some wiggle room.Ill go with 4%,but individually,instead of a group,and add to either winners or new picks.What a difference a day makes.

Also my ERF shortr looks weak,double bottom held up,only good thing is tomorrow is Ex date,could ignite a sell.Wish me luck,Ill need it.

cordially Tom

**dmk112** · 02-07-2006, 06:26 PM

Spike, Just some general thoughts on the market. The NAS is at short term support and wouldn't be suprised if it bounced tomorrow, but if todays low is taken out then we can expect it atleast filling that gap. The DJI doesn't look as good though, but it is only 30 stocks so I don't look at it as much of a market gauge. The SPX broke short term support also but that is due to the energies getting hit hard today. If I was only looking at the NAS then I am not as worried as looking at the other indicies. I am tightening the stops in the stocks that I have some profit in, although they are all part positions so I'm not too worried. If the market turns down further, I will look for some shorts on a p/b. Good luck! (still no computer, typing this from my work)

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by TFred

Greetings,

Since I got lucky and paid less for my crop,I still have some wiggle room.Ill go with 4%,but individually,instead of a group,and add to either winners or new picks.What a difference a day makes.

Also my ERF shortr looks weak,double bottom held up,only good thing is tomorrow is Ex date,could ignite a sell.Wish me luck,Ill need it.

cordially Tom

Sounds like a plan. Good luck with Crop and ERF tomorrow!

On the Crop, one thing I failed to consider was total port average fluctuation by switching to -20% flat stop (from the original -4%/psar bear change). I'll have to go back and consider that now. If it's clear that -4% average is hit by either or both of Crop 1 and 2, then I'll have to consider the future direction of Crop.

Comments welcomed by anyone who has 'em.

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by dmk112

Spike, Just some general thoughts on the market. The NAS is at short term support and wouldn't be suprised if it bounced tomorrow, but if todays low is taken out then we can expect it atleast filling that gap. The DJI doesn't look as good though, but it is only 30 stocks so I don't look at it as much of a market gauge. The SPX broke short term support also but that is due to the energies getting hit hard today. If I was only looking at the NAS then I am not as worried as looking at the other indicies. I am tightening the stops in the stocks that I have some profit in, although they are all part positions so I'm not too worried. If the market turns down further, I will look for some shorts on a p/b. Good luck! (still no computer, typing this from my work)

Thanks dmk! I'm pondering what you've shared here.

I am distinctly bearish, that's for sure. To anyone silly enough to be reading my mess, I am driven to reiterate what I've said in the past. When it comes (the bear) it has a potential to come fast. Capital preservation rules dudes. Don't use wide stops and live in hope. Expect the unexpected, and be nimble. I'm a bear until I'm not; and I'm a bear right now. Make 'em pretty and play the r/r numbers game!

**spikefader** · 02-07-2006, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by New-born baby

....Man, that screen was red today. Dow down only 87 points. Seemed like 8700 point drop today.

Ya, I got that feeling too dude. I have an ominously bearish thing going on tonight. Tight leashes is all I'm thinkin. Discipline is what saves from those big ugly red days.....it's the hopers that are gonna get killed.

**New-born baby** · 02-08-2006, 10:02 AM

Red Setup

Spike,
Looking at the BMHC weekly and daily charts. Here's a weekly short that currently looks like she could get real ugly to the downside for a drop of $31 via Dow theory PROVIDED she busts the lower line of a descending triangle.
(This might be one you want to put in stalk mode

).

The current PnF chart is looking for a $62 bottom of the current chart.
Yesterday's $6 plunge is a bearflag looking for another $6 drop (via Dow Theory).

Any thoughts or proposed setups?

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**spikefader** · 02-08-2006, 12:56 PM

ENG:

Expanding daily channel long, 5th completion intraday.

I'm long 9.90. 2% stop on this one.

**spikefader** · 02-08-2006, 12:59 PM

**spikefader** · 02-08-2006, 03:10 PM

ENG: Closed for a quick +4.65%.