Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Hey spike, i think i F'd up on INSM.
You played it just perfect on POTW, I jumped in on C long around 2.40 and its went down since then, I am now barely just breaking even with todays up move. What could I have done different with this entry? Thanks for your help spike!

Thanks sekto. Finally getting some VTP of my own goin' in the POTW jejejej.....pretty fortunate this week....

Just looked at INSM and it's trading up to 2.45, so that's curious With your entry I'd be keeping it really tight and bail for even at the first sign of weakness below your entry. There's a better entry for ya I'm sure....Best thing that could happen is a runaway gap up for you; otherwise perhaps sell into any impulsive early morning strength and look for a discount dude.

OK, as to your question on entry, I'm assuming you bought this morning after the impulse up and you chased it. Correct me if that's not the case.

But if you did buy this morning, that's the problem right there. You were a day late on the entry and chased it. Chasing is gonna worsen your r/r unless you keep the reins tight, and keeping the reins tight when you chase almost always gets you out quickly cuz of the retracement principle after impulsive behavior. Don't buy late in an impulse up; but rather late in an impulse down or corrective down. Buy the weakness on a pattern to confirm, or wait for the strength to confirm the 'c' and bid at support. Either way, at the time of entry you want to calculate your r/r number. If it isn't over 8 you're not stalking perfection imo. What was your r/r at entry?

Other thoughts: If you miss an entry, wave at it as it sails off. Don't chase it. It's better to watch lost opportunity than watch your late entry get whacked and go through aggravation and temptation to start doing the 'red hope' thing. Only time you're allowed to 'hope' is while it's green! heheh

Impatience will scream for you to get long and not to wait, for fear of missing the move. That's emotion. That's evil. Patience is good. Stalking is good. You want to be the cat! Stalk perfect weakness and opportunity.

[sekto]

Negative spike, I have already learned my lesson with chasing.
I did not chase this stock. I bought it on C long at 2.40 at the start of this week. It lost some footing from there but has regained itself to the level i initially bought at.

I made a mistake by not calculating my R/R and i didnt use a stop loss, Thats why im still in it.

[spikefader]

Negative spike, I have already learned my lesson with chasing.
I did not chase this stock. I bought it on C long at 2.40 at the start of this week. It lost some footing from there but has regained itself to the level i initially bought at.

I made a mistake by not calculating my R/R and i didnt use a stop loss, Thats why im still in it.

10-4 good buddie! In that case, you are HUUUUUUUGE fer not chasin' it! hehe How presumptuous of me to assume such a thing jejeje A thousand apologies. Actually, I just realized I have you to thank for this stock; you brought it to the c long thread!!! Thnx dude. More of picks like that are welcome anytime! Long-term INSM is a great pick I think.

OK, so you saw the setup, bought into weakness, during the 'c' down and had to endure that gap down on Monday like me. Not sure I posted my nibbles for this one. I think I had mentioned it privately to someone here on the forum, and averaged into it at 2.36 and 2.15 (2.26 ave now). So I'm sitting in +8.65% tonight and stop to even.

OK, to your question on what you could have done differently.....it's a toughy that one. You got the entry on the way down.... and it confirmed with the inverted SHS I posted, it looked pretty good to me. And the gap down is just one of those things. Ya gotta weigh up whether to take the hit or get cute with it and add or wait for better exit than -10% gap down stop out. It was within my tolerance considering all things, and I was willing to give this one more wiggle room and try and add; it's worked out well for me, after a period close to bailing on it, especially considering it hadn't confirmed the 'c' completion at that point.

And that's what it comes down to sekto! Does one wait for the 'c' to complete, as it did for INSM yesterday? Or does one try to anticipate the 'c' completion. It's a personal thing. Ya gotta do it both ways I think. Sometimes you'll stop out at the risk you give it, other times it will work out. But the key thing, which you may not attach much importance to yet (I don't know) but it's the r/r for the setup. When you bought at 2.40, what was that number. If your target was 10.00 or 316%, then 30% risk still gives you r/r of 10.5 which is nice. But is 30% risk too much for you dollar wise on the size you allocate to the position? And that's what it comes down to; the healthy balance of weighing up your reward target and risk percentage, and dollar pain level that's tolerable. And without knowing that stuff from you, it's tuff to say how you could have played it better.

Good luck with it in days ahead. I think it has great upside potential, but if I were you, I'd not risk red again on it. If it takes you out, stalk it again for that perfect entry.

[TFred]

Greetings,

Sorry to pick your brain so often,but I feel the whole thread could use some discussion on the topic.What in your opinion is the best indicator of a short bias?

I ask this since 2 things remind me of the 2000 bear trend.

1,Large swings intraday,and daily.

2,inverted yield curve.

If the market is set for a bear run,does the EW wave count work in reverse?

Thanks for all your time and effort.
cordially Tom,

[TFred]

Greetings again,

I noticed this blast from the past,and wonder what you think?Initially it looked bullish on a short term daily chart,yet on this weekly 1year,it appears to have bounced off resistance,and trading at lower volume from the recent boom.



It appears a short on any strength would be the play,or is this a reversal in progress?

cordially Tom

[tokyojoeskid]

Play, Sndk, and PETS

Hey Spike,

Couple of questions for ya. I picked up some Pets at 17.34, its doing great this past week despite this volatile market. I guess my questions are with Play and Sndk. I have some Play at around 27 not too big of a position and was thinkin of adding some more. The chart looks crazy though. I really think there is a lot support at the 25 level. What do you think? Looking forward their technology seems to be one step ahead, but there are always those technicals to look out for. And with apple being one of their major customers, you have to wonder if/when apple pulls back will it rub off on Play.

Sndk stalk mode. Its finally coming back down, if we find a perfect entry point we could make a killing on the calls, assuming it goes up again. Looks like its flirting with its 50dma, but stand back for now . . . let this big tree fall.

Thanks,
Tjk

[TFred]

Greetings,

Great call,looks like the leaders from the past couple of years could be under some selling pressure.

GOOG
CME,
HANS
AAPL

all on my watch

cordially Tom

Greetings,

Add CRM to the list.

cordially Tom

[TFred]

Greetings,

Add to the CRM post this:

http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001108524&ticker=crm

Insiders thinki ts a good price to sell at.Any thoughts on the chart Spike?

cordially Tom

[Adam]

Congrats on a very delicious trade dude. You're HUUUUUUUUGE! hehe

Spike and NBB,

Haven't talked in a while. Today I Opened with an AAPL Feb 62.5 put option and sold again just before close for a 250%+ profit. It was actualy accidental I put a limt order in, intsead of a stop, I can"t complain. Do you guys think we have more downside here? Any projection?

Best always,

Adam

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Sorry to pick your brain so often,but I feel the whole thread could use some discussion on the topic.What in your opinion is the best indicator of a short bias?

I ask this since 2 things remind me of the 2000 bear trend.

1,Large swings intraday,and daily.

2,inverted yield curve.

If the market is set for a bear run,does the EW wave count work in reverse?

Thanks for all your time and effort.
cordially Tom,

Yer welcome, Tom. Thnx fer all the winners you bring to the table!

That's a good question on best short bias indicator. I'd encourage others to weigh in. I would have to say high and rising volatility for me, but I look at things rather simply. I still favor the chart as the best indicator of a short bias but that's not what you're lookin' fer.

Yes, EW works in a bear.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike,

Couple of questions for ya. I picked up some Pets at 17.34, its doing great this past week despite this volatile market. I guess my questions are with Play and Sndk. I have some Play at around 27 not too big of a position and was thinkin of adding some more. The chart looks crazy though. I really think there is a lot support at the 25 level. What do you think? Looking forward their technology seems to be one step ahead, but there are always those technicals to look out for. And with apple being one of their major customers, you have to wonder if/when apple pulls back will it rub off on Play.

Sndk stalk mode. Its finally coming back down, if we find a perfect entry point we could make a killing on the calls, assuming it goes up again. Looks like its flirting with its 50dma, but stand back for now . . . let this big tree fall.

Thanks,
Tjk

Heya Tjk. I'll draw up some charts after next close and the weekend for ya. I really like PETS and SNDK surely is approaching support levels....

I'm expecting some hard market selling tomorrow and next week. SNDK will probably suffer, but not so sure about PETS. It's a Creme 3 stock and one of 2 of the 11 original that would still be open had I been running the previous stop rules. RYI is the other. I think PETS has the potential to be a SuperStock; being able to hold while the broader market falls.

Good luck. And remind me if I forget to chart em in the next couple days.

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Add to the CRM post this:

http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001108524&ticker=crm

Insiders thinki ts a good price to sell at.Any thoughts on the chart Spike?

cordially Tom

Daily thoughts here. Definately long bias for me while that gap holds.

[spikefader]

Spike and NBB,

Haven't talked in a while. Today I Opened with an AAPL Feb 62.5 put option and sold again just before close for a 250%+ profit. It was actualy accidental I put a limt order in, intsead of a stop, I can"t complain. Do you guys think we have more downside here? Any projection?

Best always,

Adam

Congrats dude!

Man I wish you'd start a thread up and put all your trades in it!! How bout it? You seem to have some very nice plays going on!

EDIT: For AAPL downside, look back at thoughts I gave NB. I'd say 55.00 off the daily alone. Ya got 60.00 Fib support, but not much price or vol support, and it's acting impulsive down. I think NB has nailed it, especially if the market does what I think it's gonna do the next 6 days or so....

[spikefader]

Prepare thy accounts fer the burning drop that could be coming folks....

I need a bullish Vector to neutralize my danger bias!! :eek

[mystiky]

Any updates to ERS?

Hi Spike,

You predicted (when it was $17.80) that ERS would hit around $22.50, and it even did one better at $23.50!

What about now? Is it "safe" to go long again around the $17 level? It looks like there is strong support around $16.50...

Your crystal ball says...

(thanks)