Spike's Scientific Stock Analysis

[spikefader]

Cubemap update:

QQQ long stopped out today at 35.85 for -$0.70. Gotta love those stops! What a day. I will reestablish a long at QQQ gap support, since my Vector remains bullish.

Lesson to all: Gaps are powerful. Never underestimate how they can cause fast moves like today.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
I like your great attitude,those stops are nice and reassuring,keeps the sleeping pills at bay.

Ive been playing in and out of the canroys lately,they've been running nicely with the price of oil.Unfortunately Ive not maximized my profits by selling too soon,usually they peak before monthly distribution and then retreat for a nice 5-6% delta every month.Lately with oil going nuts its been buying back higher instead.Can you see a likely scenario with some of these? PVX,PWI,PTF.

Another stock that my employer is in is ZICA,and its going nuts,2 - $4.13 in a couple of weeks,on above average volume.Any thoughts if this could be something big here?

thanks as always,cordially,
Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
I like your great attitude,those stops are nice and reassuring,keeps the sleeping pills at bay.

Ive been playing in and out of the canroys lately,they've been running nicely with the price of oil.Unfortunately Ive not maximized my profits by selling too soon,usually they peak before monthly distribution and then retreat for a nice 5-6% delta every month.Lately with oil going nuts its been buying back higher instead.Can you see a likely scenario with some of these? PVX,PWI,PTF.

Another stock that my employer is in is ZICA,and its going nuts,2 - $4.13 in a couple of weeks,on above average volume.Any thoughts if this could be something big here?

thanks as always,cordially,
Tom

Yes, you've got that right! As well as the emotion of regret

PVX is clearly bullish and if your R/R fits, it's worth chasing a buy in the 9.30s or pivot on Monday! Problem is the stop loss location. Naturally, I like entries with great r/r, so I'll watch this one for something worthwhile. Here's what I see:


Obviously the day it traded down to 6.63 was the channel long day that I love to see.

ZICA Weekly: Clearly at resistence and while looking bullish and likely to start a 5 wave move on the weekly, the daily is showing a 5 wave move, so it's likely to retrace.

[Websman]

Spike...

I've been looking at ISIS with a little curiousity, but the chart is confusing my juvenile, Vulcan mind.

Can you help a poor confused Vulcan???

[grebnet]

Hurc

Hey Spike.... This is my Pres pick and I'm still holding my original positions(in the 9's) Any thought on a good entry if I were to add to my position. Thanks....

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
Concerning PVX and the other canroys,they usually dip about 30-45 minutes into the trading session,and then begin theyre climb again.Thats when I get stopped out.Ive heard it said on the boards that big players clean up on these intentional dips.Ill need to set my stops a little lower.I traded EENC last week,on a 5 day chart you can see my buy in at 14.39,got stopped out on a retreat thursday at 14.70,then it continued on to close at 15.20 on friday.Glad I made some,but want to maximize trade deltas.
Still need to get rid of that emotion.

Keep up the good work and I hope I can bring some quality picks to you.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Spike...

I've been looking at ISIS with a little curiousity, but the chart is confusing my juvenile, Vulcan mind.

Can you help a poor confused Vulcan???

Here ya go. Looking bearish from where I stand.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike.... This is my Pres pick and I'm still holding my original positions(in the 9's) Any thought on a good entry if I were to add to my position. Thanks....

HURC: I remember this one Nice pic.
Previous chart:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HURC.jpg

The weekly chart is looking super bullish to me and volume is suggesting higher.
Today's daily:

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
Concerning PVX and the other canroys,they usually dip about 30-45 minutes into the trading session,and then begin theyre climb again.Thats when I get stopped out.Ive heard it said on the boards that big players clean up on these intentional dips.Ill need to set my stops a little lower.I traded EENC last week,on a 5 day chart you can see my buy in at 14.39,got stopped out on a retreat thursday at 14.70,then it continued on to close at 15.20 on friday.Glad I made some,but want to maximize trade deltas.
Still need to get rid of that emotion.

Keep up the good work and I hope I can bring some quality picks to you.

cordially Tom

Thanks for the feedback. I'm sure you will be a quality contributor of picks....the ones you've mentioned look great. Definately on the watch list.

Dips - yep, they can frustrate, which is why the BASSAR theory works so well. You Buy At Support Sell At Resistence (BASSAR) and you aim to miss the dips from resistence.

Your EENC entry looks very well timed at 14.39, which happened to be near the 38.2 FIB support from that nice bullish move up in September. Didn't make you sweat for long before moving for you....but I'm curious why you trailed your stop so soon - especially considering it's a potential wave 3 on the daily, and wave 5 on the weekly. You really didn't give it much time to get over that 15.00 price resistence (that's where it's supposed to dip ). It gapped up, hit its head on 15, then it dropped for only 1 hour to close the gap, tag your stop, and turn up again to try at beat 15.00 the second time. You mention emotion so let's deal with that. My stance on emotion is pretty clear in the thread. It's got absolutely no place in trading decisions. What makes it worse is that it's SO HARD to learn to control it. Especially if break of discipline happens to be rewarded with profits
So Is it the case you were experiencing fear of loss of profits??? And did this fear cause you to alter your stop? So what was your target when you opened the position? What was your original stop? Or is trailing stops part of your plan?

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,

Actually it was an instinctive play from the week before.I worked it from 14.40 the previous week to 14.98,after I sold it dropped back to low 14s again.It seemed to me resistance was getting through 15.Thursday AM it appeared to be doing it again.This time though it didnt fade to low 14s.

Ive decide to play PTF this week,hoping to get in low 13s and ride to mid 15s with oil gettng to 54+ this week if all go's well.

Also want to get in TMWD in the 2.50 range missed last week on thursday ,it went to 2.50 ,but my order didnt get filled?

cordially Tom

[grebnet]

Mind

Thanks for your input on HURC .
I have been watching MIND since it came up on a screen of mine at $6.47, It doesnt want to take a breather. Thoughts on chasing it or continuing to watch ??????
Grebnet

[tokyojoeskid]

sndk

Mr. Spike,
Been educating myself on the charts and looking at sndk position, seems to be hitting the lower channel right now. I cant figure it out precisely but looks that lower point on channel is 29.31. So this point is where my stop should be placed?
thanks
tjk

[Websman]

Thanks for the input on ISIS Spike!

I was leaning towards the bear side and you confirmed it.

[spikefader]

Mr. Spike,
Been educating myself on the charts and looking at sndk position, seems to be hitting the lower channel right now. I cant figure it out precisely but looks that lower point on channel is 29.31. So this point is where my stop should be placed?
thanks
tjk

Where to put your stop is not an easy question to answer. It depends on several things, such as your entry price (or average price if you added), and what your stop system revolves around. I don't like trailing stops at all. It's tough enough to get the perfect entries I find without trailing and increasing the chance of stopping out earlier by a factor of 10 , so I move to break even when in good profit and keep it there until either my target is hit, or I get a distinct warning or sell signal. In that case, I look to extract myself at the next strength and tightening stops to protect profit. You may have a different method.

I recall recommending take profits on SNDK at the gap at (30.80??) resistence, so I would have done that - learn a lesson from this - and then you could have looked to reenter down here near channel support - ironically, where you're thinking of selling.

Anyway, price is searching for the channel at 28.00 ish (this will be moving today, so watch for the latest price that the channel sits on). But I wouldn't be putting my stop at the channel. I'd put it under price support.

Bear this in mind too: the market is near significant gap support areas and could rebound from this normal retracement, so selling down here isn't following the BASSAR theory I like so much. To maximize profits, one must buy at support and sell at resistence. If it were me, after the nice profit you had, I'd put break even stop and let it ride. If you need an absolute get out stop loss for it, I'd pick 26.94, which is under price support in late Sept.

Good luck with it.

[spikefader]

Thanks for your input on HURC .
I have been watching MIND since it came up on a screen of mine at $6.47, It doesnt want to take a breather. Thoughts on chasing it or continuing to watch ??????
Grebnet

Looking very bullish. Based on short-term channel action, I would feel very comfortable buying the pivot today, but would have a very tight stop since there are gaps. A logical stop is 7.19, under the gap support or 6.79, under price support.

EDIT: Pivot is 7.36, so stop at 7.19 is 2.3% risk for something with a 9.00+ target or 22% gain. Not bad imo.