The Patriots Day Top 5

[mrmarket]

Here is my top 5:

AGH FRN NMHC SPF VIP

I will buy one of these tomorrow. Which one do you like and why?

[carlton02]

My Take FRN

I looked -- I researched and I chose FRN: Why:
Friendly Ice Cream Corporation (Friendly's) is primarily engaged in the operation of full-service restaurants, the distribution and sale of ice cream desserts through retail and institutional locations, and franchising. As of December 28, 2003, Friendly's operated 380 full-service restaurants, franchised 157 full-service restaurants and six non-traditional units, and manufactured a line of ice cream desserts distributed through more than 4,500 supermarkets and other retail locations in 13 states. The restaurants offer a variety of breakfast, lunch and dinner menu items, as well as ice cream dessert products. Friendly's restaurants target both families with kids and adults who desire a reasonably priced meal in a full-service setting.

I like the TA on FRN, MACD strong, BARCHART is 100% buy, MSN says i'll give it a ranking of 7. Second Opinion says it is a buy. Huge number of institutions are holders of the stock. Can Slim shows this a prime cup with handle due for a breakout!
Finally, IBD provides a glimpse at RS of 94 and earning per share 95 and overall rating of A-. With an accumulation rating of A-. This is super charged and ready to leave the train station, all aboard, please!….
My 2 cents worth.

[spikefader]

The pick of the bunch is FRN

Go the bull.

[Bakxs]

Two Different Opinions

I often talk trade with my father... in any case, after going over the top 5 we have two different choices. I'll go with his first...

NMHC is his pick because it had the highest CANSLIM rating of the group. He's a strong believer in Bill O'Neil's theories. It's definitely worked for him. He said the relative strength, earnings per share and the fact that the stock is a relatively young one leads to good growth.

He did express concern of the low volume and low institutional support as negatives... but he did like this stock out of $$MM$$'s top 5.

I, on the other hand agree with Carlton and really like FRN. The biggest thing I like about FRN is the fact that I think this stock is vastly undervalued. The price to earning ratio is 12.6--compared to the rest of the industry & S&P which hover 'round 24.

The growth for this company looks fantastic with a near 65% earnings growth over last year, from revenue growth of "only" 2%. FRN generated almost $580 million dollars... that's a lot of ice cream! =)

The chart shows a nice, steady climb over the past year... it currently has a relative strength of 96. FRN just broke through and closed $.03 above their 52-week high. It had a cup-like (no real handle though) formation, so it could signal a nice little run up.

To top it all off, the Institutional guys agree--as they have a near 35% stake in FRN. And the Insiders have been using their own money to purchase shares. For the last year, only one insider (their general counsel) have sold any shares... in addition, their President has been accumulating shares. These are not massive transactions, mind you--but it is reassuring to see the people who oversee the operations putting their own hard earned money 'where their mouths are."

My only two concerns that the overall volume, while up is still on the low side. Low volume / liquidity always makes things a little testy as large investors can sway prices either way... The company has a large debt load resulting in a negative book value.

In any case, I look forward to reading $$MM$$'s pick... I'm sure it will be enlightening, as well as entertaining.

--Bakxs

P.S. If you see any flaws in my logic/explanation... please feel free to comment. I'm new to this and would appreciate any corrections. Thanks.

EDIT: Nice chart & TA Spike! Also, Earnings for FRN will be announced April 26.

[scifos]

A personal rule of mine is 50k avg daily volume, that disqualifies AGH, FRN, and NMHC for me. I already own VIP and I don't double up as a rule either, so I'd have to go with SPF. Not really scientific, but I stick to my rules.

[Bakxs]

Question.

...do you really like SPF? Or is it a matter of last man standing?

heh

--Bakxs

[bka58]

I will have to choose FRN with reservations. Overall, I like SPF due to the book value and revenue per share. However, I believe the housing market has had a long run and the market drop today seems to be primarily due to interest rate fears which would seems to further weigh on the housing market. I also like VIP, but not in the near term. There is still a lot of growth potential in Russia but the chart appears to be in need of a correction. I did not care for AGH's debt and NMHC seems fairly valued compared to its sector/industry. The previous posts mentioned the positives of FRN so I will not repeat those with the except that they appear to be holding about $3.50 per share it cash. My main concern is the low net profit margin and what appears to be a negative book value. If someone can clear this up for me, I would appreciate it. All in all, you've got to love the strength on finishing today up with the overall market getting pounded the way it did. Just my thoughts.

[iv95]

FRN's chart

Is FRN forming an Ascending Base? If so, Don't we have to wait for the 3rd bottom? And then we could have a nice solid bounce. This may not be ready to trade tomorrow

[scifos]

Re: Question.

...do you really like SPF? Or is it a matter of last man standing?

Mostly last standing. SPF is a superb stock, and I am a huge fan of the homebuilders as an industry that will go straight up for the next few years. They are perfect for a portfolio that holds longer term than Mr.Market.

I like SPF due to the book value and revenue per share. However, I believe the housing market has had a long run and the market drop today seems to be primarily due to interest rate fears which would seems to further weigh on the housing market

Inflation rates aren't as crucial to homebuilders as a lot of people think. Then again, when people w/ homebuilder stocks react so strongly to them intrest rate fears do have a short term effect on prices, but the business of homebuilding isn't really related to interest rates (at least not any more than any other part of the economy)

I also like VIP, but not in the near term. There is still a lot of growth potential in Russia but the chart appears to be in need of a correction

I like VIP a lot too for its long term growth potental, its part of my longer term holdings, but post correction it could take a quick upturn again.

[mimo_100]

FRN

I like FRN around 16

[The Photon]

my pick

I Like VIP- the photon

[The Photon]

my pick

I Like VIP- the photon

[spikefader]

Re: The pick of the bunch is FRN

FRN Update: Buy signal today for trade tomorrow targetting 24.50.

http://mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4824#4824