SPF ==> The Patriot's Day Winner

[stockmarketwizard]

I just heard the CEO of Pulte Homes say that they won't be adversly affected by rates unless they go up by 300-400 basis points.

Tell me, is there really anyone out there that believes this garbage? Obviously the market is saying that is pure nonsense. The housing bubble is all about extremely low interest rates that are going higher every day. Have you ever seen high energy prices over a substained period of time without inflation?

Housing stocks will get slammed over the coming weeks. If you really like SPF, it looks like you could get it at 44 or less within the next 60-90 days.

[mrmarket]

I just heard the CEO of Pulte Homes say that they won't be adversly affected by rates unless they go up by 300-400 basis points.

Tell me, is there really anyone out there that believes this garbage? Obviously the market is saying that is pure nonsense. The housing bubble is all about extremely low interest rates that are going higher every day. Have you ever seen high energy prices over a substained period of time without inflation?

Housing stocks will get slammed over the coming weeks. If you really like SPF, it looks like you could get it at 44 or less within the next 60-90 days.

Disagree....interest rates are low. They will be low, even in a rising rate environment. Rates go up because the Fed tries to stem inflation. Inflation rises because people have more money in their pockets and goods are scarce.

If people have more money, they buy more houses.

[stockmarketwizard]

Ernie, I know you disagree or you would not have taken your position in SPF. I would strongly encourage you to rethink you position for the health of your portfolio.

SPF guided lower this quarter, but higher for the year. What makes them think they have much visability past this quarter? Look at the stock price today. It is now lower than where you got in when you could have locked in a beautiful profit. I couldn't sleep at night if I were long any of the housing stocks right now. They have a lot more downside ahead. The unwinding of the bond market bubble and "carry trade" will have far greater downside on bond prices than many are expecting.

How far down are you willing to ride this thing? I just think is it absolutely crazy to trade without stops. A good way for the Wall St. Maffia to steal all of your profit/and or principal.

[mrmarket]

Ernie, I know you disagree or you would not have taken your position in SPF. I would strongly encourage you to rethink you position for the health of your portfolio.

SPF guided lower this quarter, but higher for the year. What makes them think they have much visability past this quarter? Look at the stock price today. It is now lower than where you got in when you could have locked in a beautiful profit. I couldn't sleep at night if I were long any of the housing stocks right now. They have a lot more downside ahead. The unwinding of the bond market bubble and "carry trade" will have far greater downside on bond prices than many are expecting.

How far down are you willing to ride this thing? I just think is it absolutely crazy to trade without stops. A good way for the Wall St. Maffia to steal all of your profit/and or principal.

History is a good teacher. I have beaten the market each and every year for the past 14 years without ever using a stop loss. Given this track record, why should I ever feel the need to use a stop loss?

With regard to SPF, and all other stocks, if people didn't have a differing viewpoint on a stock's outlook, stocks would never be traded.

[stockmarketwizard]

I did a little digging (not much time spent yet) and the few stocks that I did see from your portfolio that are leftovers that you refuse to take a stop on are mostly in horrible shape. In fact, a great list of short candidates. Now, with all due respect, you have had some incredible picks. But, what good does that do if you still have a lot of your trading money stuck underwater even with 15% gains on winners?

I'm going to take a closer look over the coming days. But I still think you are a good stock picker. Just need to develope a defense strategy for your loosing positions.

[mrmarket]

I did a little digging (not much time spent yet) and the few stocks that I did see from your portfolio that are leftovers that you refuse to take a stop on are mostly in horrible shape. In fact, a great list of short candidates. Now, with all due respect, you have had some incredible picks. But, what good does that do if you still have a lot of your trading money stuck underwater even with 15% gains on winners?

I'm going to take a closer look over the coming days. But I still think you are a good stock picker. Just need to develope a defense strategy for your loosing positions.

It's an overall strategy. Many of the winners that you see in my history of trades were the losers of which you now speak.

[mrmarket]

here come....earnings....earnings....earnings....


Standard Pacific Corp. Reports Record 2004 Second Quarter New Home Orders, Up 24%
Tuesday July 6, 9:09 pm ET


IRVINE, Calif., July 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF - News) announced today preliminary new home orders for the three-month period ended June 30, 2004, the highest for any quarter in the Company's history.
Preliminary Average Number of
New Home Orders Active Selling Communities
April - June April - June

2004 2003 2004 2003

Southern California 564 666 23 24
Northern California 481 258 25 19
Total California 1,045 924 48 43

Florida 1,055 760 49 32
Arizona 651 545 15 23
Carolinas 146 144 11 10
Texas 177 128 21 18
Colorado 141 82 13 12

Total Company 3,215 2,583 157 138




New home orders for the Company's 2004 second quarter continued at healthy levels in the Company's three largest markets -- California, Florida and Arizona -- which accounted for over 85% of our sales activity companywide. In California, sales were up 13% reflecting our diversified product portfolio and strong market positions throughout the state, including Northern California, which continues to rebound from the sluggish market conditions that followed the tech driven slowdown in the Bay area. And notwithstanding the size of our California operations, we sold more homes in Florida during the quarter where we now operate in 8 of the major markets throughout the state.

Year-over-year sales were up in 3 of our 4 Southern California divisions, reflecting overall healthy housing market activity and a positive response to our newly introduced lower priced attached product. Sales were down in our Orange County division with fewer active selling communities and a difficult year-over-year comparison for 2 larger attractively priced attached products that sold out during the quarter. In Northern California, new home orders were up 86% on a 32% increase in active selling communities, reflecting both stronger housing market conditions as well as the expansion of our geographic footprint including our entrance into Sacramento. The Northern California total for the 2004 second quarter includes 95 orders from 5 communities from our new Sacramento division. We continue to maintain extremely low levels of inventory throughout the state where we only had 8 completed and unsold homes in 23 active communities at quarter end.

In Florida, orders were up 39% on a 53% higher community count. The lower sales rate per community during the quarter reflects a lack of inventory for sale due to stronger than anticipated absorption levels. The total for the 2004 second quarter also includes 130 orders from 11 communities from Coppenbarger Homes in Jacksonville, which was acquired in October 2003.

In Arizona, second quarter orders were up 19% year-over-year despite a 35% decline in the number of active selling communities. This resulted in an 83% increase on a same store basis, reflecting strong housing market conditions in Phoenix.

The Company's cancellation rate for the 2004 second quarter was 15%, which was unchanged from the year earlier period.

The Company's orders for the 2004 second quarter include 69 homes from 4 joint venture communities, compared to 179 homes from 9 joint venture communities in the 2003 second quarter.

Standard Pacific, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, has built homes for more than 65,000 families during its 38-year history. The Company constructs homes within a wide range of price and size targeting a broad range of homebuyers. Standard Pacific operates in some of the strongest housing markets in the country with operations in major metropolitan areas in California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida and the Carolinas. The Company provides mortgage financing and title services to its homebuyers through its subsidiaries and joint ventures, Family Lending Services, WRT Financial, Westfield Home Mortgage, Universal Land Title of South Florida and SPH Title. For more information about the Company and its new home developments, please visit our website at: www.standardpacifichomes.com.

This news release contains forward-looking statements. These statements include but are not limited to statements regarding new home orders. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those that may be described or implied. Such factors include but are not limited to: local and general economic and market conditions, including consumer confidence, employment rates and interest rates. In addition, orders are typically subject to cancellation and may not result in sales. For a discussion of certain of the risks, uncertainties and other factors affecting the statements contained in this news release, see the Company's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

[jiesen]

excellent

great news! we sure needed some in this market...

[mrmarket]

Don't look now...but heeeeeere we come!

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=MTH&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=spf

A preview of what's to come for us, if SPF can beat the numbers this week, like MTH did (by 4% or so)...

go SPF! Show us the money!

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041027/law143_1.html

Oh, show us the money, indeed! Just look at those big bold beautiful numbers...
Nice pick, $$MM, SPF is HUGE!

2.16 vs 2.02 expected, beat by 7%!
guidance of a 44% year/year earnings increase --- WOW

Standard Pacific Corp. Reports a 26% Increase in Third Quarter Earnings to a Record $2.16 Per Share, Updated Guidance for 2004 and Initial Guidance for 2005
Wednesday October 27, 8:05 pm ET
Financial and Operating Highlights - 2004 Third Quarter vs. 2003 Third Quarter
* Earnings per share up 26% to a record $2.16 vs. $1.72 last year
* Net income of $74.6 million, up 29%
* Homebuilding revenues up 39% to a record $866 million
* Record 2,353 new home deliveries, up 5% from last year
* Homebuilding gross margin up 130 basis points to 23.0%
* Record Adjusted Homebuilding EBITDA* of $152 million, an increase of 44% over 2003, and an EBITDA margin of 17.5%
* LTM return on average equity of 24.2%
* Record 2,474 new home orders, up 15% year-over-year
* Record quarter-end backlog of 6,956 homes, valued at $2.4 billion, up 51%
EPS Guidance for 2004 raised to $8.75, an increase of 44% year-over-year
Initial Earnings Guidance for 2005 of $9.80 to $10.00 per share


IRVINE, Calif., Oct. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Standard Pacific Corp. (NYSE: SPF - News) today reported the Company's 2004 third quarter operating results.
Stephen J. Scarborough, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "We are pleased to report another record quarter of operating results with earnings per share growth of 26%, revenue growth of 39%, an LTM return on average stockholders' equity of 24.2% and a backlog of nearly 7,000 homes valued at $2.4 billion which provides us with excellent earnings visibility for the balance of this year and into the first half of 2005. These record results were achieved despite the series of severe hurricanes which impacted our Southeastern region and resulted in delivery delays of nearly three hundred homes during the third quarter. In addition, our strong year over year increase in earnings per share this quarter is on top of a 153% increase in EPS in last year's third quarter.

"And based on the strength of our record orders and backlog, we are on target to generate record fourth quarter earnings of approximately $3.65 per share, a year over year increase of 57%. For the quarter we expect to deliver over 3,000 homes with revenues in excess of $1 billion for the first time in the Company's history, leveraging our strong position in California, Florida and Arizona."

Mr. Scarborough continued, "We are increasing our 2004 earnings guidance for the full year to $8.75 per share. Our earnings target would result in a 44% increase over our full year 2003 per share earnings and generate a projected return on average equity of 26.5% for the year. The increased full year guidance for 2004 reflects the earnings impact resulting from the delay of approximately 425 deliveries from our Southeastern region in the third and fourth quarters due to the severe hurricane season this year. For the full year, we are targeting 9,025 deliveries, excluding 250 homes in joint ventures, and homebuilding revenues of approximately $3.3 billion, a 43% year over year increase. In addition to the tremendous jump in revenues, our earnings for the year are being propelled by a projected 60 basis point increase in our homebuilding pretax margin to 14.6%.

"While we are looking forward to a strong finish to 2004 we are even more excited about our outlook for next year during which we expect to deliver nearly 12,000 new homes, representing a nearly 30% jump over this year's projected delivery total. For 2005, California deliveries should be on par with the record setting volume level forecast this year. Of particular note, we expect to see unit volume increases in every division in our Southwest and Southeast regions next year. And for the first time in our 38-year history, we expect to deliver more homes in a state other than California, with Florida targeted to generate nearly 4,000 deliveries in 2005, up over 50% year over year. This broad-based growth in unit volume outside California, led by our rapid growth in Florida, is making significant and increasing bottom line contributions and clearly demonstrates the success of our balanced growth strategy.

"Our initial guidance for 2005 earnings per share is in the range of $9.80 to $10.00 on homebuilding revenues of $3.8 billion. The projected 13% increase in revenues is being driven by a 30% increase in deliveries to 11,725 new homes, excluding 225 homes in joint ventures. During the year, we expect to see our average home price decrease by over 10% to $325,000 due primarily to the increase in deliveries outside of California. Nevertheless, we currently anticipate that our homebuilding gross margin will continue to be in the 24% range with the assumption that home prices remain relatively stable.

"As we look ahead to next year, our positive outlook is fueled by the success of our balanced growth strategy which has contributed to our strong operating results. We continue to pursue growth in our existing markets and expansion opportunities into new markets with strong upside potential. Consistent with this strategy we entered the Tucson market in August through the acquisition of Kemmerly Homes whose operating platform and management team is positioned to meaningfully expand volume and market share. Additionally, an integral part of our growth strategy is maintaining a strong land position and balance sheet. We currently control over 50,000 lots companywide, a three to four year supply, which allows us to be patient and opportunistic while maximizing our flexibility in how we deploy our capital."

Mr. Scarborough concluded, "We continue to respond to the extremely attractive value of our equity by repurchasing shares of our stock in the open market. During the quarter we acquired 220,000 shares of our stock bringing the year to date total to over 700,000 shares. In addition, we implemented a new 10b5-1 plan which will expand our ability to repurchase shares over the next several months."

Homebuilding Operations

Homebuilding pretax income for the 2004 third quarter increased 27% to $119.1 million from $93.6 million in the year earlier period. The increase in pretax income was driven by a 39% increase in homebuilding revenues and a 130 basis point improvement in the Company's homebuilding gross margin percentage. These positive factors were partially offset by a $9.3 million decrease in joint venture income and a 90 basis point increase in our SG&A rate.

Homebuilding revenues for the 2004 third quarter increased 39% to $865.8 million from $623.9 million last year. The increase in revenues was attributable to an 11% increase in new home deliveries (exclusive of joint ventures) combined with a 26% increase in our consolidated average home price to $376,000.

During the 2004 third quarter, the Company delivered 864 new homes in California (exclusive of joint ventures), a 19% increase over the 2003 third quarter. Including joint ventures, California deliveries were up 3% to 917 homes. Deliveries were off 24% in Southern California to 552 new homes which included no joint venture deliveries this year versus 110 last year, while deliveries were up 121% in Northern California to 365 new homes (including 50 homes from our new operations in Sacramento and 53 joint venture deliveries). In Florida, housing market conditions remained healthy but our ability to deliver homes was impacted by the series of severe hurricanes that hit the state of Florida during the third quarter. The hurricanes resulted in a delay in the delivery of approximately 200 homes for the third quarter. Nevertheless, the Company delivered 605 new homes in the third quarter of 2004, up 4%, including 89 homes from our new operations in Jacksonville. The Company delivered 409 homes (including 8 homes from our new Tucson division, which includes one joint venture delivery) during the third quarter in Arizona, down 10% from the 2003 third quarter reflecting the timing of new home deliveries during the year including a more even distribution of deliveries over the full year. Housing demand in Phoenix, the nation's second largest metropolitan housing market, continues to remain strong and for the full year the Company is projecting a 7% increase in new home deliveries. In the Carolinas, deliveries were off 8% to 130 new homes. This region was also impacted by severe weather which resulted in the delay of approximately 60 homes during the quarter. New home deliveries were up 48% in Texas and up 103% in Colorado. While economic and housing market conditions remain relatively weak in Texas, the Company has successfully introduced several lower-priced new home projects resulting in an increase in absorption rates year-over-year. In Colorado, gradually improving economic conditions, combined with a similar introduction of more affordable housing, have contributed to the increased level of new home deliveries.

During the 2004 third quarter, the Company's average home price was up 26% year-over-year to $376,000. The higher selling price was driven primarily by a 30% increase in the Company's average price in California to $651,000 (exclusive of joint ventures) and from an increase in the percentage of deliveries from our California operations compared to the year earlier period. The higher price in California represents the impact of general price increases experienced in the state and a change in mix during the 2004 third quarter compared to the prior year. Our average price in Florida was $217,000, up 19% from the year ago period, which also reflects general price increases, a shift in mix, and the addition of Jacksonville which had an average home price of $240,000. Our average price in Arizona was down 1% to $177,000 and up 16% in the Carolinas to $160,000. Both changes were primarily the result of shifts in our product mix. Our average prices in Texas and Colorado were down 12% and 3%, respectively, reflecting our increasing emphasis on more affordable homes in these regions. For the full year, we expect that our average home price will increase approximately 20% from the prior year to $365,000 as a result of higher average prices in California and Florida, partially offset by lower average prices in Texas and Colorado due to a shift to more affordable homes. We expect that our 2004 fourth quarter average home price will be approximately $370,000.

The Company's homebuilding gross margin was up 130 basis points year-over-year to 23.0%. The increase in our gross margin percentage was driven primarily by higher margins year-over-year in California and Arizona. Our margins in Florida were generally in line with the year earlier period (despite some hurricane related costs) and reflect healthy housing market conditions in all eight of our regions in the state. Margins in Texas and Colorado, while improving, were still below our company-wide average. The higher overall gross margin percentage reflected our ability to raise home prices in most of our California markets during the past several quarters as a result of strong housing demand and improving margins in Arizona due to healthy demand for new homes combined with volume and cost efficiencies. In addition, our homebuilding gross margin percentage was favorably impacted by the reclassification of certain expenses from cost of sales to SG&A beginning this year. The gross margins in our backlog are modestly higher than those generated in the third quarter of 2004.

Selling, general and administrative expenses (including corporate G&A) for the 2004 third quarter increased 90 basis points to 10.2% of homebuilding revenues compared to 9.3% last year. The increase in SG&A expenses as a percentage of homebuilding revenues was due to the reclassification of certain expenses from cost of sales to SG&A discussed above. Excluding the impact of the reclassification, our SG&A rate would have been lower year over year. We expect that our full-year SG&A rate for 2004 will be in the low 10% range.

Consistent with our expectations, income from unconsolidated joint ventures was down $9.3 million for the 2004 third quarter to $8.5 million. The lower level of profits was driven by a decrease in the number of joint venture deliveries to 54 homes versus 164 homes last year, combined with a slight decrease in joint venture income from land sales to other builders. For the full year, we expect to generate approximately $47 million in joint venture income from approximately 250 new home deliveries as well as profits from joint venture land sales to other builders. The $47 million projected total reflects an $8 million downward revision from the previous quarter due to the timing of land sales from our Talega joint venture.

New orders for the quarter increased 15% to a record 2,474 new homes (including 61 joint venture orders) on a 27% increase in average community count. The Company's cancellation rate for the quarter declined to 18% from 20% in the year earlier period. In Southern California, net new home orders were down 12% for the quarter due in large part to the significant level of price appreciation over the past few years. Our expectation is that absorption rates will, over time, return to a more normalized pace which is reflected in our outlook for this region in the coming year. In Northern California, new home orders continued to reflect healthy demand for new homes and were up slightly over the year earlier period on the same number of active selling communities. The Northern California total for the 2004 third quarter includes 89 orders from 4 communities from our new Sacramento division. In Florida, orders were up 53% on a 70% higher community count despite the record hurricane activity during the quarter. The lower sales rate per community during the quarter also reflects a conscious decision by the Company to reduce the number of new homes for sale due to the strong backlog levels in our Florida markets. The Company is generally experiencing strong demand for new housing throughout its Florida markets. The total for the 2004 third quarter also includes 76 orders from 13 communities from Coppenbarger Homes in Jacksonville, which was acquired in October 2003. In Arizona, third quarter orders were up 11% year-over-year notwithstanding an 11% decline in the number of active selling communities. While housing demand in Arizona continued to be strong, the Company has been regulating the release of new homes for sale in Phoenix to maximize gross margins and to better align sales with our backlog and production capabilities that have been constrained by the record setting permit level in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. The total for the third quarter this year also includes 46 orders from 5 communities from our new Tucson division which we acquired in August 2004. Orders were up 14% in the Carolinas on a 75% higher community count, up 19% in Colorado on a 17% higher community count and up 29% in Texas on a 17% higher community count. In Texas and the Carolinas, order levels still reflect the impact of generally sluggish economic conditions on the demand for new housing while the Company's positive order trends in Colorado reflect gradually improving economic conditions.

The record level of new home orders for the 2004 third quarter resulted in a record third quarter backlog of 6,956 presold homes (including 158 joint venture homes) valued at an estimated $2.4 billion (including $105 million of joint venture backlog), an increase of 51% from the September 30, 2003 backlog value.

The Company ended the quarter with 168 active selling communities, a 31% increase over the year earlier period. The higher community count resulted from the opening of 74 new communities during the first three quarters of 2004 (compared to 50 during the same time last year) including 25 new communities during the third quarter. The Company is planning to open approximately 20 new communities during the balance of the year and is targeting a year-end community count of approximately 170 to 180 active subdivisions, approximately 16% higher than at the end of 2003.

Financial Services

The Company generated a modest profit at its financial services subsidiary, which currently offers mortgage banking services to our homebuyers in California, Arizona, Texas, and South Florida. The operating results continue to reflect tight margins on loan sales and lower capture rates due to competitive pressures resulting from the significant reduction in mortgage refinance activity during the first three quarters of the year as well as the start-up nature of our operations in Arizona and Texas. The Company decided earlier this year to transition its mortgage operations in Arizona and Texas from the joint venture structure to its wholly owned financial services subsidiary.

Financial services joint venture income, which is derived from mortgage banking joint ventures with third party financial institutions currently operating in conjunction with our homebuilding divisions in Colorado, the Carolinas, and Tampa and Southwestern Florida, was down 46% to $463,000. The lower level of income was primarily due to the decrease in business in Arizona and Texas as we transition our mortgage lending activities to our wholly owned financial services subsidiary.

Earnings Conference Call

A conference call to discuss the Company's 2004 third quarter earnings will be held at 11:00 am Eastern time tomorrow morning. The call will be broadcast live over the Internet and can be accessed through the Company's website at www.standardpacifichomes.com/investor/investors.asp.

[mrmarket]

This stock will pop soon...no doubt in my mind at all.

[jiesen]

This stock will pop soon...no doubt in my mind at all.

Well, it's making another run for 60, just a couple % to go. This time, I think it's gonna make it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPF&t=5d

we're definitely headed in the right direction on this one. I see 60 coming tomorrow or early next week!

[jiesen]

Well, it's making another run for 60, just a couple % to go. This time, I think it's gonna make it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SPF&t=5d

we're definitely headed in the right direction on this one. I see 60 coming tomorrow or early next week!

Well, we saw 60 this morning! So I sold at 60.38 just now, for just under 15% profit. Thanks for the excellent pick, $$MM. You are HUGE!!!!!!!!

[df21084]

I sold for a 10.3% profit, commissions inclusive. I know it's not 15%, but I'm new at this, and I'm satisfied with a 10+% ROI.

Now we need another data dump.

Thanks.

$$$Mr. Market$$$ is HUGE!