The May Day Top 5

[mrmarket]

Here they are...I'll announce the winner soon..

CACH DECK HUBG MPX NUTR


Which one do YOU like, and why?

[paulheels]

I like MPX. bought some a few days ago. fundamentals look good and has been steadily growing.

[grebnet]

Im impressed that CACH has raised guidance 3 times already this year and beat guidance for last year.
They have no debt.
This will be my choice.Ill buy today and see which MM picks.

[RL]

MY CHOICE

DECK Is my choice as I hit It with my dart on 2-26 -04 for 26.63. Im going to hold this most of the year.

MR MARKET IS HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGEEEE

[grebnet]

I dont know if anyone else likes CACH but does anyone have any ideas why it suddenly gave up 3$, ill hope its a buying op. ,picked up some at 26.75

[billyjoe]

Motley Fool says DECK is overvalued and has been for several months. MPX was just downgraded and the boating industry near me (great lakes) has fallen on hard times for the last couple years, but MPX is repurchasing shares and that's a good sign so I pick MPX.
billyjoe

[stt]

My pick is MRX

My pick is MRX. After HZO, I want to keep a stock from boating industry. Summer will bring good results.

[titanomega1]

DECK

I bought DECK, women love shoes, nine inch f453 me heels, boots, pumps and sandals, etc. Oprah like them can't miss. Go MRMARKET.

[paulheels]

i took mpx and midd and both screwed me. midd looked good to start with then went to hell, mpx is still a great comapny with good stats, hopefully after this selloff (however long it lasts) these two will be good, especially mpx..


hey MrMarket, drinkin a beer or ten for ya

paul

[Websman]

I am torn between NUTR and CACH.

NUTR just went up $1.25 in fair volume so I would wait for a pull back which should happen.

CACH has taken a pretty good hit in high volume for the last couple of days but I believe it will rebound.

What do I know? This whole market is illogical right now. I believe I will just wait and see what Mr Market picks and then ask the great candlestick wizard, Spikefader, for his expert advice on a proper entry point.

How much better does it get. I get to learn from all of these great traders on one fantastic board! Make that THE BEST board anywhere on the planet and it is ran by the greatest stock picker of all time.
$$$Mr Market$$$!!!
And the best part is, it is ALL FREE!!! YIIIAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

sorry...I lost my head for a moment.

What will the great one choose in this crappy market??? We will soon see.

[jiesen]

DECK

I'm leaning towards DECK right now... but will await the HUGE one's pick before doing anything rash.

[Karel]

I liked HUBG two months ago, I think it was in the top 5 with AACE. I am out again at 34.17 by now, thanks to the Huge One; it still looks OK. For the sake of variety I prefer MPX now. Never mind downgrades

Regards,

Karel

[HugeFan]

MPX is my pick

I like MPX best. Here's why: RSQ is a stellar 0.92 for the year. Its IBD stats are great: SMR is an A, its group rating is A, among others, and not only are shares being accumulated, but the sponsorship rating is an A. This all adds up to a composite rating of 99. The smart money is going after this stock. Finally, its timely. Its about marine products. It makes boats and summer is coming up.

[carlton02]

DECK is my choice and second NUTR

CACH clothing stores
DECK #25 shoes

HUBG
MPX

NUTR
Why is NUTR a good pick
Was in it before and has performed well.
IBD selection #24
MSN stock scout rank 9, which is very high
Nutraceutical International Corporation to Acquire Natural Balance
April 29, 2004
Nutraceutical International Corporation announced that it has entered into a purchase and sale agreement to acquire substantially all of the operating assets of Natural Balance, Inc., a Colorado corporation, through a newly formed subsidiary. Headquartered in Castle Rock, Colorado, Natural Balance manufactures, markets and distributes a line of approximately 50 different branded products primarily through health and natural food stores. Closing is anticipated to occur on or before May 31, 2004. The purchase price for this acquisition is approximately $9.0 million.
BAD_
Lonza Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against Nutraceutical International Corporation
April 12, 2004
Nutraceutical International Corporation announced that Lonza Ltd. has filed suit in the District Court for the Southern District of New York against the Company and several of its subsidiaries for infringement of Lonza Ltd.'s U.S. Patent No. 5,073,376. Nutraceutical markets products under the trademarks Kal, Nature's Life, Solaray and Natural Max. The subject patent covers enteric preparations of L-Carnitine L-Tartrate. The validity of all of the claims of the Lonza patent was recently confirmed during re-examination by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
Earnings Per Share - Quarterly Results
FY (09/04) FY (09/03) FY (09/02)
1st Qtr $0.27 $0.23 $0.22
2nd Qtr NA $0.30 $0.26
3rd Qtr NA $0.28 $0.36
4th Qtr NA $0.28 $0.24
Total $0.27 $1.09 $1.08


Qtr. over Qtr. EPS Growth Rate
FY (09/04) FY (09/03) FY (09/02)
1st Qtr -4% -4% ---
2nd Qtr NA 30% 18%
3rd Qtr NA -7% 38%
4th Qtr NA 0% -33%


Yr. over Yr. EPS Growth Rate
FY (09/04) FY (09/03)
1st Qtr 17% 5%
2nd Qtr NA 15%
3rd Qtr NA -22%
4th Qtr NA 17


DECKDECKERS OUTDOOR CORP
MSN Rating #7
IBD Rank #25
Price ($) Relative
Strength
Daily Dollar
Volume
Earnings
Growth*
Sales ($)
Net Profit
Margin
% Shares Held
by Insiders


26.76 98 7,308,156 81.82% 121,000,000 7.6 47.1%





DECK Industry Sector S&P 500 Ranking*
P/E 34.31 59.62 86.34 95.94

P/S 2.13 3.61 5.61 7.26

PEG 1.4 2.9 2 0.2



Explain


P/E

DECK's price/earnings (P/E) ratio is 42.45% lower than the industry average, which indicates that investors are buying DECK's earnings at a discount. This lower valuation may indicate a bargain but could also represent the market's low expectations for the company. Since earnings tend to fluctuate and can often distort the P/E ratio, confirm the valuation by looking at price/sales and other similar ratios. Also notice how P/E has changed over time.

P/S

DECK's price/sales (P/S) ratio is 41.00% lower than the industry average, which indicates that investors are buying DECK's revenue at a discount. This may be an indication of lower margins (ability to convert sales to earnings) or below-average sales growth. Compare profit margin, revenue growth and price/earnings to the industry to get a broader sense of how DECK is valued in comparison to its competitors.

PEG

DECK's price/earnings/growth (PEG) ratio is 51.72% lower than the industry average, which indicates that investors might be buying DECK's earnings growth at a significant discount. This is usually considered favorable. However, since earnings tend to fluctate and can often distort the PEG ratio, look at the underlying figures (price, earnings, and earnings growth) to confirm the premium.



Industry/Sector Information


Company Industry Sector
DECK Textile-Apparel Footwr/Ac
Consumer Goods


Very Good News

Deckers Outdoor Corporation Raises FY 2004 Guidance-Conference Call
April 15, 2004
Deckers Outdoor Corporation announced that based on its strong first quarter performance, the Company has raised its fiscal 2004 guidance and now expects revenues of $166 to $174 million with earnings of $1.42 to $1.51 per share. The Company previously expected revenues of $153 to $162 million with earnings of $1.25 to $1.35 per share. According to Reuters Research, analysts expected the Company to earn $1.27 per share on revenues of $154.9 million in the same period.
Possible dilution
Deckers Outdoor Corporation Announces the Filing of a Registration for Public Offering
March 03, 2004
Deckers Outdoor Corporation announced that it has filed a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed public offering of 3,500,000 shares of common stock consisting of 1,500,000 primary shares offered by the Company and 2,000,000 shares offered by certain selling stockholders, including Douglas B. Otto, Chief Executive Officer, and other employees, members of management and members of the Board of Directors. The managing underwriters of the offering will be: RBC Capital Markets Corporation, as sole bookrunning and co-lead manager, Piper Jaffray & Co. as co-lead manager, and SG Cowen Securities Corporation, D.A. Davidson & Co., First Albany Capital Inc., and Wedbush Morgan Securities Inc.
$ in millions 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Revenue 85.8 102.3 101.8 106.7 102.2 109.7 113.7 91.5 99.1 121.1
Net Income 10.5 1.4 3.7 4.5 -2.9 2.9 7 1.6 1.6 9.2
Cash Flow 11.3 3.1 6 7 -0.3 6 9.9 5.2 4.2 12.4



Growth Rates Comparison 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years


DECK Industry Sector S&P 500 Ranking*
Revenue 22.2% 9.32% 8.25% 7.3%

Net Income 475% 9.01% 22.47% 104.06%

Cash Flow 195.24% 8.56% 11.38% 38.33%

Revenue

DECK's 1 year revenue growth is 138.20% higher than the industry average, which is usually a good sign. Compare DECK's revenue growth to earnings growth to see how well DECK is translating revenue into earnings.

Net Income

DECK's 1 year earnings growth is 5171.92% higher than the industry average. This is typically a positive sign of above-average growth, but this number can be misleading if the starting point was little or no earnings. Compare DECK's earnings growth in the past four quarters to its 1 year average to see if DECK growth is speeding up-a good sign--or slowing down. Also look at analyst estimates of DECK's future performance to see how DECK's growth rate may change in the future.


Why I like DECK
The TEVA brand of shoes is selling great! The UGG boots are selling so fast that they can not keep them in stock. They are in maximum production and still can not keep them on the shelves.
This has got to be one of the years winners. One year target price is $28. My one year Target price is $35.
Unless the market continues to down slide, but with 3 quarters of increasing Institution support, Huge earning---this baby will soar.
The only negative is the potential stock dilution of 3.5 million shares

[eugenewinston]

MPX is the one. It has the fundamentals and Technicals and the blessing of good IBD ratings. This AMEX stock will be the latest to be boosted up ala HRT & MPP then left out to dry like yesterday's laundry! :P