Portfolio return

[stenzrob]

$$$MR_Market$$$,
Do you track your total portfolio return over time?

As a rough approximation for year-to-date performance, I just took the open positions (14 of those) and figured the return since 1/1/04 for those bought before 1/1/04 and since the buy date for those bought after 1/1/04. The average return of the open positions is -14.1%. For those positions sold since 1/1/04 (10 of those), figured the return since 1/1/04 for those bought before 1/1/04, and used total return for those bought and sold since 1/1/04. Since these hit their targets, and some were below the original buy point on 1/1/04, the average return for those was 20.23%.

Using this very simple calculation, the average for all the positions, holding and sold, is +0.20%. I realize that this is not the same as tracking portfolio performance, but it should be in the ballpark.

So I'm just wondering if you have tracked your total portfolio return, for comparison to the market averages, over any periods of time. Maybe Karel already did this at some point, and I just can't find it.

Lest anyone thinks I'm being a wise guy here, I'd like to point out that the nasdaq return since 1/1/04 is -4.2% and my portfolio return since 1/1/04 is -7.1% (I always outperform the market!). Any positive return over the last 4 1/2 months is to be applauded.

best regards ... stenz

[mrmarket]

Re: Portfolio return

$$$MR_Market$$$,
Do you track your total portfolio return over time?

As a rough approximation for year-to-date performance, I just took the open positions (14 of those) and figured the return since 1/1/04 for those bought before 1/1/04 and since the buy date for those bought after 1/1/04. The average return of the open positions is -14.1%. For those positions sold since 1/1/04 (10 of those), figured the return since 1/1/04 for those bought before 1/1/04, and used total return for those bought and sold since 1/1/04. Since these hit their targets, and some were below the original buy point on 1/1/04, the average return for those was 20.23%.

Using this very simple calculation, the average for all the positions, holding and sold, is +0.20%. I realize that this is not the same as tracking portfolio performance, but it should be in the ballpark.

So I'm just wondering if you have tracked your total portfolio return, for comparison to the market averages, over any periods of time. Maybe Karel already did this at some point, and I just can't find it.

Lest anyone thinks I'm being a wise guy here, I'd like to point out that the nasdaq return since 1/1/04 is -4.2% and my portfolio return since 1/1/04 is -7.1% (I always outperform the market!). Any positive return over the last 4 1/2 months is to be applauded.

best regards ... stenz

I've beaten the market each and every year for the last 14 years.

[Karel]

Re: Portfolio return

$$$MR_Market$$$,
Do you track your total portfolio return over time?

...

So I'm just wondering if you have tracked your total portfolio return, for comparison to the market averages, over any periods of time. Maybe Karel already did this at some point, and I just can't find it. ...

Hi Stenz, that is the idea of the Following MrMarket portfolio. One problem: that is a rather wimpy implementation of MrMarket's scheme (it drags around a lot of cash), and another problem: it just got started, so things look even worse. And as MrMarket still holds four stocks from before this board started, those four slots will remain empty until those stocks get their 15% or get spring cleaned out.

Regards,

Karel

[Dave]

I have had many discussions with my brother and dad about how many stocks to hold at one time. I have tried to figure the best number to maximize growth while keeping the risk fairly under control. They both feel that it is good to hold a good number of positions at once, while I have managed to just hold 2, and on occasion, 3 at once. I decided on a small number while I was doing some testing of the $$$MR. MARKET$$$ method early last year.

I tracked his picks and used some slightly altered versions of Karel's MS Money screens in a variety of ways to see how the number of open positions might affect portfolio performance. While my initial feeling was that it would be good to hold 10-15 stocks at once to diversify and reduce risk, I found that as stocks were turned and screens were run, I was ending up with the same stocks in the screening process much of the time. I then felt that at some point the 2nd or 3rd best stocks from previous screens might become the 1st.

This concerned me simply for the fact that if this stock was not good enough for me to pick a month ago, why should I settle for it now? I then tested and back-tested with 1 stock, then 2, then 3, and finally settled on holding 2 at once. I feel that this way I can pick the absolute best stock at a given turn point, instead of having to "settle" for one that was not good enough last turn. Since implmenting this strategy, I have gotten a %135 return in 11 months. I have not tested to see how it would have turned out if I had held closer to 10, but perhaps I will do that next week.

The potential downside is that you get trapped in a stock that loses its momentum and does not recover for a long period of time, like the few stocks Ernie is still holding from long ago. My longest hold so far has been I believe 6 months for NCEN, but it was offset by a few quick turns. I may, at some point, think of adopting a strategy for dumping a stock that has lost its momentum, but I feel that since I can choose only the best of Ernie's picks at any given time that I can do a good job of making the posibility of this very tiny. A good example was BEL. I had a turn at the time Earnie picked BEL, but it made me a bit nervous, so I waited for a while and jumped on the IPAR pick.

Anywho, not exaclty sure where this post is going, other than maybe I am curious as to how many stocks everyone holds and how others have done here with Ernie's picks/model.

Off to a boring meeting now...

-Dave

[Jaws57]

I try to hold 6 MrMarket stocks. This seems to work for me since it forces me to sell an unproductive stock when MM picks a new one. I picked 6 since that what Karel's model did. I went back and tested the method in 2003 and would have returned almost 100%. I also found by holding more stocks it would have lowered the return.

So far this year I am up 4.7% including the stocks still in my port and all the sales I closed after Jan 1.

Jaws57