Stenzrob's specials

[stenzrob]

Pulled the plug on ININ today at $25.40, taking the 5.75% and 7.64% loss for the two positions from 27.50 and 26.95.

Only holding WATG now, mostly in cash.

The three that I got stopped out of yesterday are all lower right now than where I got thrown out, which is oddly comforting.

[skiracer]

Pulled the plug on ININ today at $25.40, taking the 5.75% and 7.64% loss for the two positions from 27.50 and 26.95.

Only holding WATG now, mostly in cash.

The three that I got stopped out of yesterday are all lower right now than where I got thrown out, which is oddly comforting.

That's what the stops are for Stenz. You can always re-enter after protecting your position. I am certain that the larger percentage of occassions a well placed stop will save you money and protect your gains.

[stenzrob]

All funds currently back at work now.
CRDN, AOB, SDTH, WATG, NTWK in slow account where I focus more on on undervalued.
RGEN in the fast account.

What a difference a week and some stop loss orders makes.

Slow account now holds only WATG.
That account is up 4% since 10/5.

Fast account is currently in cash.
That account was up 78% since 10/5 until the loss I took today in ININ, now up about 65%.
The loss taken today is, unbelievably, the first actual losing trade since 10/5 when I abandoned PTEN (at 22.10, it's now at 20) and started looking mostly at new highs for quick trade candidates.

Ticker sell/buy (notes)
EXAS 4.48/4.06 (peaked over $6, now at $3)
WATG 8.48/8.17
WATG 8.23/7.82
ALTI 4.78/4.03 (biggest % gainer, now at $4.20)
VOCS 34.19/33.6
NUVA 41.6/40.3
ZRAN 26.04/25.8
NTWK 4.36/4.29 (also traded in the other account, now under $3 again)
AOB 13.65/13.25 (also traded in the other account, now under $12 again)
LUNA 7.98/7.24 (longest time held, at 3 weeks)
VDSI 21.68/21.04 (now at $27. Of all these trades, this is the one of only two I should've held, in hindsight)
WATG 9.7/8.87
RGEN 5.38/5.25 (now above $6, the other one of two)
ININ 25.4/27.5

Thinking out loud:

So, what did I do wrong to end up with a losing trade in this account?
Other than the excuse that the market turned to crap after the Fed announcement (this ININ position was actually in the black by maybe 0.1% just prior to that), I fell back into old habits! I was attracted to ININ when it was setting new highs, so it was on my watchlist. I saw it drop by over 5% one day and saw it as a buying opportunity. This may be a reasonable thing to do, but it is not what got the 78% return in two months in this account. On the other hand, I sat through some virtual red ink on LUNA before it turned around to a profit, and it worked out to buy WATG again on a drop after selling higher. Maybe I just wasn't patient enough with ININ. Gotta' admit, though, it feels OK being mostly in cash right now.

[skiracer]

I think it is a very volitaile market right now and not good for trading. You have no idea which way it is going go with no definite trend to gauge your trades.

[stenzrob]

I think it is a very volitaile market right now and not good for trading. You have no idea which way it is going go with no definite trend to gauge your trades.

Absolutely, ski. I have no problem sitting in cash while a new trend develops, but I am also looking at a few candidates to trade anyway. Will continue to use stops to protect myself.

Looking at incy, ansr, resp, hrbn, emkr, oxps, rsti. These are all recent new highs, and meet my minimum volume requirements. I know almost nothing about any of them.

[stenzrob]

Bought EMKR for $12.35.
Would probably have bought lower, closer to the open, but had non-stop meetings from 8:30 to 11:30.
Trading must generate lots more cash before I can give up the day job.

[stenzrob]

Bought CYBS for $17.38

[stenzrob]

Bought QID at $38.55. Tried this once before with bad results, wanted to give it another try.

I think that between inflationary pressure and the subprime mess, a recession is likely, and the market will be headed generally down for a quarter, maybe two - hence the QID position.

Meanwhile, some stocks will manage to swim against the current, and I'm going to try to locate them.

Current holdings:
Fast account - EMKR (12.35)
Slow account - QID (38.55), WATG (10.55), CYBS (17.3)

[stenzrob]

Bought EMKR for $12.35.
Would probably have bought lower, closer to the open, but had non-stop meetings from 8:30 to 11:30.
Trading must generate lots more cash before I can give up the day job.

Good stuff about EMKR here:

http://www.stockhouse.ca/mediascan/news.asp?newsid=9799004

[skiracer]

When trading for the short term (swing trades of 2/3 to 7/10 days I think there must be an identifiable trend, whether it be an uptrend or downtrend, in place and recognizable before you can make a trade and expect it to perform as expected based on some techinical analysis off a chart or a fundamental characteristic like increased sales or earnings. I stay out of the markets and trades when I cannot make an identifiable determination. It then becomes gambling to me which I don't want to do when trading. I want to know as closely as possible that what I expect to happen will have a good chance and an edge for me in happening the way I expect it to. There is no edge in forcing the issue in markets where the trend is unidentifiable.
I think the INDU is moving into a 5th wave up right here and that would be good for longside trades and the chances of EMKR following the market up right here. Good luck.

[stenzrob]

3 things I though I'd mention:

1. EMKR announced today that they will report results on Monday, before the open, with the conference call a day later. I've decided to hold the position through the report. Wish me luck.

2. Ran across an interesting book excerpt about wall street analysts.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/12/10/stocks-mcclellan-bull-books_1211bookexcerpt.html

The underperformance of analyst picks is mind-boggling.

3. Also ran across an interesting ETF for alternative energy today: PBW. Holds stocks of companies involved in solar, batteries, etc.

[stenzrob]

... EMKR announced today that they will report results on Monday, before the open, with the conference call a day later. I've decided to hold the position through the report. Wish me luck.

This news just came across the wire -
"Emcore to delay 10-k for fiscal year in NT 10-k
5:17 PM EST December 14, 2007"

So, I dumped this as fast as I could for $12.50 after hours before everyone found out about it. Snooze -> lose.

[stenzrob]

dumped this as fast as I could for $12.50 after hours before everyone found out about it. Snooze -> lose.

Now under $12 after hours.
Dodged a bullet that time!

[stenzrob]

update

Currently holding QID, WATG, CYBS.

QID position is profitable so far, 39.5x/38.55, but there's no telling what kind of news or whatever may turn the ship around, so I set a stop at 39.10 for today. I figure that as long as the market is headed down, I can stay in this, and if my stop is triggered, it might be time to go long in one of the stocks on my list.

WATG is about -10%, CYBS about -12% from my buys.
WATG is thinly traded, was whacked by news of private placement, but I believe it is still way undervalued, so I'm holding it with no stop and no plan to set a stop.
CYBS tried a breakout and failed and is now testing the 50 day, but pullback has been on light volume, so I am also holding this. No stop set yet, but I am looking at the chart to see where a breakdown might lead to likely further losses. This is not so undervalued as to warrant holding through hell or high water.

[billyjoe]

Now under $12 after hours.
Dodged a bullet that time!

Stenz,
Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoe